UFC Predictions: Sterling vs. O’Malley UFC Odds & UFC 292 Best Bets

After four main card fights, Sterling and O’Malley will close out the action at TD Garden where we could see the bantamweight title change for the fourth time in six years. 

• 🏟 Location: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
• 📅 Date: Saturday, August 19th, 2023 
• 🕙 Time: 10:00 pm ET
• 🥊 Main Event: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
• 🔥 Top Favorite: Sterling to win via rear naked choke (+275) at BetMGM
• 📊 Fighter Stats: Aljamain Sterling (23-3) / Sean O’Malley (16-1)
• 📺 TV Channel: ESPN + PPV

Despite winning 16 fights and only registering one loss on his record due to an unfortunate injury against Marlon Vera, O’Malley is quite fortunate to be in this position to win the title.

His victory over Yan in his bout back in October finished with a lot of controversy, as many - including us - argue he should not have won the fight. The judges scored it with a split for him, but after being taken down six times and with a control time of 5:44, we don’t know how you can argue O’Malley’s case for a win.

Nevertheless, prior to that controversial victory, he did steamroll past everyone else, besides Vera because of that injury mid-fight. Raulian Paiva, Thomas Almeida and Kris Moutinho were all beaten via KO/TKO in the fights after Vera, and O'Malley also knocked out Eddie Wineland and beat José Alberto Quiñónez after a decision win over Andre Soukhamthath on his UFC debut. 

In total, from eight fights, the title contender has won four Performance of the Night awards and BetMGM has him at +1400 to win via KO/TKO/D1 in round two  and +325 just to win by KO/KO/DQ.

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We’ve put together the UFC 292 best bets and our UFC 292 picks for this weekend after searching around for the best UFC odds for the showdown in Boston.

UFC Best Bet #1: Sterling to win via rear naked choke (+275) at BetMGM 

From the eight victories via submission in Sterling’s MMA career, five of them have been on points. In fact, he remains one of the best in the sport at locking in this submission and teammates have branded him the nickname “The Human Backpack” because of his ability to take your back and stay there.

What’s more, the last time Sterling faced such a diverse and speedy striker, Cory Sandhagen, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt managed to take his back inside the first round and submit him via a rear naked choke.

⭐ UFC 292 Picks: Sterling to win via rear naked choke (+275) at BetMGM 

UFC Best Bet #2: Sterling to win on points (+220) at FanDuel 

In reality, you won’t find many UFC predictions that favor O’Malley to win. Sterling is too experienced, too slick in the grappling department and there are simply too many questions hanging over O’Malley’s head after the controversial win over Yan.

On the other hand, we do have to remember how hard he can punch and his diversity in striking, particularly his impressive spinning wheel kick.

Such an impressive striking arsenal is going to force Sterling to constantly want to grapple, which could see the rounds tick over and over until round five. Sterling has also won 11 of his 23 fights on points.

⭐ UFC 292 Picks: Sterling to win on points (+220) at FanDuel  

UFC Best Bet #3: O'Malley to win via KO/TKO/DQ (+280) at Caesars 

Although we pick a win for the champion, we have to acknowledge the fact O’Malley could knock Sterling out. The champion has previously been knocked unconscious by Marlon Moraes as part of one of his three defeats, and against the hardest-hitting bantamweight in the UFC, we could see him go out once again.

11 of O’Malley’s 16 wins have been via KO/TKO and he has only gone the distance twice in his nine-fight UFC career, winning six of his UFC bouts via KO/TKO.

What’s more, his knockout over Alfred Khashakyan back in 2017 remains the most famous Contender Series moment in history, which came just two months after a beautiful spinning wheel kick knockout against David Nuzzo. 

If O’Malley gets a chance to put together a combination and if Sterling isn’t quick enough to initiate a grapple, we could have a new champion.

⭐ UFC 292 Picks: O'Malley to win via KO/TKO/DQ (+280) at Caesars  

There are not many better jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC right now than Sterling, and he is without question the best grappler in the bantamweight division. 

Sterling has been a black belt in jiu-jitsu since 2019 under the guidance of none other than legendary UFC man and 5th-degree black belt, Matt Serra. He got his black belt not long after submitting Cody Stamann with a rare Suloev stretch, and with seven other submission wins in his 26-fight MMA career, he constantly remains a threat to lock in a submission of any kind.

The champion mainly gets his submission work done through a takedown and working his way through his slick movement to the back. When he gets your back, it’s merely a case of whether you can survive until the round ends, because there are not many better at controlling this position than him.

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What makes Sterling's jiu-jitsu game even more of a threat is how strong and athletic he is, and the bantamweight king is believed to work around at a weight of more than 165 lbs outside of fight camp. O’Malley himself admitted to ESPN he has never weighed more than 155 lbs in his life.

Sterling also has a 71-inch reach, which is an astonishingly huge advantage for someone standing at just 5 ft 7 in. To put that in perspective, O’Malley has a 72-inch reach, despite being at a height of 5 ft 11 in. Such lengthy arms make it even easier for the champion to get his hand around you from a distance.

What's more, despite being a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, O'Malley is far from a specialist in this department. He has just one submission win on his record and has put together his impressive résumé with a background in striking. In fact, it's been eight years since his sole submission win.

Other UFC 292 Fights & UFC Odds 

• DA'MON BLACKSHEAR (ML +240) vs. MARIO BAUTISTA (ML -298)
• MARLON VERA (ML -185) vs. PEDRO MUNHOZ (ML +154)
• CHRIS WEIDMAN (ML +220) vs. BRAD TAVARES (ML -270)
• GREGORY RODRIGUES (ML -355) vs. DENIS TIULIULIN (ML +280)