US Open Day 11 Prediction: Alcaraz vs Medvedev Odds & Prediction 09/07

• ⭐ Match to be decided in 5 sets (+275) at BetMGM

Reigning US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is set to clash with World No. 3 Daniil Medvedev in a highly-anticipated semifinal this Friday. 

Alcaraz began his title defense impressively, defeating Dominik Koepfer, Lloyd Harris, Dan Evans, and Matteo Arnaldi to reach the quarterfinals. He triumphed over 2020 finalist Alexander Zverev, executing crucial breaks and holds to secure a 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 victory.

On the other side, Medvedev navigated a challenging path to the last eight, besting Attila Balazs, Christopher O'Connell, Sebastian Baez, and Alex de Minaur. 

In the quarterfinals, he faced a stern test from Andrey Rublev. Despite initial setbacks in each set, Medvedev staged multiple comebacks, eventually winning 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Alcaraz has demonstrated resilience, particularly in crucial service games, while Medvedev has shown his knack for recovery even when trailing. 

Both players have displayed moments of brilliance and vulnerability in their respective journeys to the semifinals, making this matchup a tough one to call and could easily go the distance.
 

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Match to last 5 sets (+275) at BetMGM at BetMGM

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Over 36.5 Games (-112) at FanDuel

Alcaraz, currently leads the World No. 3 Russian with a 2-1 record, suggesting a potentially close contest.

Alcaraz's recent victory over Medvedev at Wimbledon in straight sets bolsters his psychological edge going into this showdown. Riding high on confidence, Alcaraz has proven that he can outmaneuver Medvedev's defensive game with his smart shot selection, versatile play, and youthful agility.

However, Medvedev cannot be counted out. Despite trailing in their head-to-head record, he has a proven track record at the US Open and has been gaining momentum with each passing round this year. His skill at rallying and counterpunching makes him a formidable opponent for anyone, even a player with Alcaraz's array of talents.

One area of concern for Medvedev could be his serve, which has shown inconsistency lately. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has been particularly strong in saving break points and capitalizing on his opponent's serve, as his recent matches have shown.

All eyes will be on this battle of strategies, skills, and mental toughness, with both players having previously claimed the New York title. While the matchup could be more hotly contested than their previous encounters, Alcaraz's recent successes against Medvedev offer him a slight edge in what promises to be a must-watch contest.

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Over 36.5 Games (-112)

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-2 (+450) at Draftkings

Danill Medvedev managed an impressive comeback in all three sets to eliminate Rublev, although the grueling conditions clearly took a toll on him physically. His serve was noticeably inconsistent, and he committed nine double faults.

Alcaraz, too, faced intermittent challenges from Zverev but showed resilience and tactical acumen during key moments to secure the win. He fended off all five break points against him, while successfully converting all four break opportunities on Zverev's serve.

The duo has met twice this season, and both times Alcaraz triumphed in straight sets. In their first encounter, Alcaraz ended Medvedev's 19-game winning streak at the Indian Wells Masters final. More recently, he overcame the Russian in the Wimbledon semifinals, ultimately clinching the championship.

At just 20 years old, Alcaraz's versatility, foresight, agility, and smart shot selection have enabled him to dismantle Medvedev's defensive game.

However, beating Djokovic—perhaps the greatest returner ever—would require a level of stability and maturity that Shelton may not yet possess.

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-2 (+450) at Draftkings