Veepstakes Odds: First Debate Sets Up GOP Guessing Game

The presidential debate this week is generating interest in part because the race is close but also because of the guessing game regarding Donald Trump’s potential choice for vice presidential running mate.

Trump, a Republican former president, has said his mind is made up on a running mate, but so far he has not named the person publicly. He said that person “most likely” will be in attendance at the debate being broadcast Thursday from CNN’s Atlanta studios, according to Time magazine. That likelihood is expected to ramp up the guessing game.

President Joe Biden, a Democrat, already has said his running mate will be current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Top GOP Contenders

According to The Hill newspaper, the list of probable vice presidential picks has narrowed to three: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida.

The Washington, D.C., newspaper reported that a handful of other possible picks “have received vetting materials, and Trump could make a surprise choice.”

“I don’t know how it all shakes out,” a Trump ally told The Hill, “but [I’m] fairly confident it ends up being one of those three.”

Trump’s decision could be guided in part by the vice presidential candidate’s ability to raise campaign contributions, perform well against Harris in debates and appeal to undecided voters in swing states, according to published reports.

Regarding the need to appeal to undecided voters, Harold Ford Jr., a former congressman from Tennessee, has said on Fox News that the 2024 presidential election could come down to a total of 300,000 or so undecided voters in six battleground states. 

According to USA Today, the six battleground states in the 2024 presidential race are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all considered “must-wins by both mainstream political parties to secure the 270 election votes required for the presidency."

Given the current political dialogue nationally, and the focus on issues such as democracy, the economy, abortion, immigration and crime, Gambling.com analyzed which Republican could get the nod to serve as Trump’s running mate. Sportsbooks in the U.S. are prohibited from accepting wagers on political races.

According to published accounts, the top two contenders could have an inside track. Burgum's ability to raise campaign funds and his good relationship with Trump make him a possoble selection, while Vance is considered close to Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr.

Below are the current odds. The official announcement is expected to come prior to the Republican National Convention from July 15-18 in Milwaukee.

Top contenders:

• Doug Burgum +150
• J.D. Vance +200
• Marco Rubio +350
• Tim Scott +500

Others:

• U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-New York +800
• Ben Carson, former Housing and Urban Development secretary +1000
• U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Florida +2000
• U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas +3000
• Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor +5000

Projected odds set by Gambling.com are not currently available at legal sports betting sites in the U.S.

Head-To-Head Race Deadlocked

Recent polling shows the presidential race is a tossup between Biden and Trump. According to the 2024 Poll Tracker on The New York Times website, the race is even, with each candidate at 46 percent.

“They are essentially tied as they approach their first debate Thursday night,” the newspaper reported.

First Debate Time, TV Networks

The debate is set to begin Thursday, June 27, at 9 p.m. ET.

It is being hosted by CNN, with two of its anchors, Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, moderating. CNN is making the feed available to Fox News, ABC News and other outlets.