NBA Finals 2024 Betting

Date IconLast Updated: Feb 1st, 2024

The NBA Finals culminate a two-month long playoff season after an 82-game regular season. Unlike in most other major American sports leagues, the National Basketball Association typically holds form with fewer surprises.

Are you a fan of postseason NBA betting? Then you will want to check out our ultimate NBA Finals betting guide. As most basketball betting fans know, while there are fewer surprises in the NBA title round than in other sports championships, there’s still plenty of action to bet on.

Keep reading and find out all you need to know about the 2023 NBA Finals matchup featuring the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Plus, our seasoned team of experts provide their own thoughts on who to bet on, who will win the MVP award and discuss much more in the ultimate video showdown of the finals. 

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NBA Finals Betting Tips

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NBA Playoffs Betting: (8) Miami Heat vs. (1) Denver Nuggets Finals Matchup & Schedule

With the NBA season reaching its final stages, the quest for the prestigious Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy is now underway. The Denver Nuggets have secured their first-ever Western Conference title, while the Miami Heat, who fought their way through the play-in tournament, emerged as the victors in the Eastern Conference.

The past six weeks have witnessed astonishing shifts in NBA playoff odds, largely influenced by the Heat's surprising and upset-filled journey. However, sportsbooks are once again labeling Miami as a significant underdog for the NBA Finals, highlighting the formidable challenge they face against the Denver Nuggets.

Here's the essential information you need to know: 

(8) Miami Heat vs. (1) Denver Nuggets 

Get the Best Picks & Predictions for NBA Playoffs at Gambling.com 

Looking for top-notch NBA Playoff picks? Look no further than Gambling.com, where our seasoned team of experts provide their expert advice. 

The exciting aspect for bettors is that there are numerous betting options available for Game 1. Fortunately, our experts Kevin Spain and Bryce Derouin have meticulously analyzed all the possibilities so that you don't have to! Check out the video below and see how Kevin and Bryce see the Nuggets vs. Heat matchup unfold and what the best bets are! 

2023 NBA Finals Betting Overview

 

Best Welcome Bonuses and Promotions for the 2023 NBA Playoffs

Online sportsbooks fiercely compete for market share throughout the regular NBA season and especially during the NBA playoffs, offering attractive bonuses, promotions, and contests. 

To help you find the best deals and stay informed, we offer updates on the best NBA playoff promos. With the playoffs commencing on April 15, 2023, check out some of the top NBA welcome bonuses, including sign-up deals and odds boosts. You should also consider signing up with multiple sportsbooks as it can bring you even more chances to claim greater deals and rewards.

By registering with multiple NBA betting sites in your state, you can enjoy several benefits:

 However, ensure that you only use the NBA online betting sites we've recommended on this page to comply with legal requirements.

 


Betting the NBA Finals

Much like NBA betting during the regular season, sportsbooks use a point-spread system to predict the winner of each contest and the margin of victory. Bookmakers also establish an over/under for how many points will be scored by both teams combined and whether or not the number will be higher (over) or lower (under).

For example, if Golden State is favored over Cleveland by 12 points and it’s expected to be a high scoring game, Golden State’s odds would look like this: GS -12.0, +215. Cleveland’s odds would look like this: CLE +12.0, +215. To cover the spread, Golden State would need to win by more than 12 points. To beat the spread, Cleveland would need to win the game or lose by less than 12 points.

Bettors can also wager moneylines, both on individual games and the series as a whole.

Moneylines are based on positive and negative figures and indicate how much money a better must wager to win $100 or how much a $100 bet would win. Negative numbers indicate how much you must bet to win $100. For example, if Golden State has a moneyline of -1200 it means you must bet $1200 to win $100.

Positive numbers indicate how much you'd win from a $100 bet. So if Cleveland has a moneyline of +350, it would mean a win of $350 on a $100 bet.

Sports books also offer the opportunity to bet on who will be leading after each quarter, at halftime and through three quarters with the opportunity to do in-play betting as well. Bettors will also have a host of prop bet options.


NBA Title Odds 2022 - 2023

TeamTitle Odds
Boston Celtics+450
Milwaukee Bucks+500
Golden State Warriors+700
Phoenix Suns+750
Los Angeles Clippers+850
Denver Nuggets+1600
Cleveland Cavaliers+1700
Philadelphia 76ers+1800
Brooklyn Nets+2000
Memphis Grizzlies+2000
Dallas Mavericks+2000
Miami Heat+2800
New Orleans Pelicans+3000
Toronto Raptors+3000
Atlanta Hawks+4000
Minnesota Timberwolves+5000
Portland Trailblazers+5000
Chicago Bulls+8000
Los Angeles Lakers+10000
New York Knicks+15000
Sacramento Kings+12500
Utah Jazz+20000
Washington Wizards+20000
Indiana Pacers+50000
Charlotte Hornets+50000
Detroit Pistons+50000
Houston Rockets+50000
Oklahoma City Thunder+50000
Orlando Magic+50000
San Antonio Spurs+50000


 

Bet these NBA Title odds here:


NBA Finals Prop Bets

There are lots of prop bet options during the NBA Finals, both for the series and individual games. Bettors can also wager on who will win the Most Valuable Player award.

For example, some of the team prop bets for the 2018 NBA Finals included will there be a game-winning shot at the buzzer, an ejection or a suspension? What will be the highest margin of victory? Will there be an overtime game? Will the series go four, five, six or seven games?

There are typically prop bets on most major players’ scoring, assists and/or rebounds, as well as head-to-head proposition between opposing players.

Among the interesting individual prop bets in the 2018 NBA Finals included will LeBron James average a triple-double (10 or more points, 10 or more rebounds and 10 or more assists) and Kevin Durant’s three-point field-goal percentage.

 

When betting the length of the series, keep in mind that four-game sweeps are atypical – occurring in just nine in the first 72 NBA Finals – while the most common series length has been six games (26 of 72). Five- and seven-game series happen with roughly the same frequency, each about 25 percent of the time.

NBA Finals Betting Tips

The rise of so-called "superteams" in the NBA (squads with three or more stars) has led to fairly predictable results in the NBA Finals. From 2013-2019, in every season but two a No. 1 seed or betting favorite has won the NBA title.

The only seasons in which a No. 1 seed didn’t win during that span were 2017-18 and 2018-19. In the 17-18, the Warriors battled injuries during the regular season and finished as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. They were still -1075 to beat the Cavaliers, which they did.

In 18-19, the Toronto Raptors stunned the Warriors in six games to win their first ever NBA Championship. They were both the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed and a +230 underdog heading into the Finals.

The only other underdog to win the title since 2013 is Cleveland (+180) in the 2015-2016 season. That Cavaliers team also was the only squad to ever win an NBA Finals after trailing 3 games to 1.

Through the 2017-18 season, only seven third seeds, one fourth seed and one sixth seed have won the title. No five, seven or eight seeds have ever done so.


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Betting the NBA Postseason

While anything can happen in the NBA Playoffs, historical trends seem to hold a strong precedence in determining outcomes, something to keep in mind when betting the NBA Playoffs.

The most glaring example of this is the fact that no team that's lost the first three games of a series has ever come back to win that series.

This feat has been accomplished in other sports leagues, but never in the NBA which leads to many non-elimination games garnering "must-win" distinctions. Only three teams in NBA history have even come back to force Game 7 and that's only happened once (in 1951) in the NBA Finals.

There have been, however, 11 teams that have come back from 3-1 deficits in NBA history and four of those teams won the NBA Championship. The most recent accomplishment of this feat came in 2016 when the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors marking the first time a team had ever blown a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals.

While this event is fresh on many NBA fans' minds, it's important to remember that such comebacks are extremely rare and in many instances not worth betting on.

Seeding has also played an incredibly relevant role in determining and predicting eventual NBA champions as No. 1 seeds have won 52 titles which amounts to 74.3 percent of all championships won since 1947.

Only 10 second seeds have ever won NBA Titles, the last one to do so being the 2012 Miami Heat. Only seven third seeds, one four seed and one six seed have accomplished the feat, while no five, seven or eight seeds have ever done so.

Road to the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals culminate a two-month long playoff season after an 82-game regular season and are a favorite among top betting markets the world over.

The overwhelming majority of NBA champions – more than 70 percent – have been No. 1 seeds, meaning they had the best record in their respective conference. Long shots rarely appear in NBA Finals, let alone win them. Still, the best-of-7 series does provide tremendous betting opportunities.

The NBA is split into two 15-team conferences, the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference, with 29 teams located in the United States and one in Canada. The top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs and are seeded 1 through 8, creating a bracket. Teams advance along that bracket and are not reseeded. Therefore in the conference semifinals, the winner of the 1-8 matchup meets the 4-5 winner, and the 2-7 winner meets the 3-6 winner.

Beginning with the 2015-16 season, the NBA began seeding its playoff teams by overall records within each conference rather than by rewarding division winners. Previously, the division winners received the top three seeds, even if a non-division winner had a better record than one of the division winners.

All rounds are best-of-7 series, with the team with the better record hosting Games 1, 2, 5 and 7. In the NBA Finals, the conference champion with the better record gets home-court advantage.

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Recent NBA Finals Winners

YearWinnerOpponentSeries
2022Warriors (-155)Celtics4-2
2021Bucks (+145)Suns4-2
2020Lakers (-400)Heat4-2
2019Raptors (+230)Warriors4-2
2018Warriors (-1075)Cavaliers4-0
2017Warriors (-300)Cavaliers4-1
2016Cavaliers (+180)Warriors4-3
2015Warriors (-220)Cavaliers4-2
2014Spurs (-155)Heat4-1
2013Heat (-220)Spurs4-3
2012Heat (+155)Thunder4-1
2011Mavericks (+155)Heat4-2
2010Lakers (-190)Celtics4-3

FAQ

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