Australia v India First Test: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• Nathan Lyon over 4.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Yashasvi Jaiswal under 63.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Marnus Labuschagne under 75.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Friday 22 November, 1:20pm AEDT (Australia) / 8:10am IST (India)

Where: Perth Stadium, Perth

Watch: Seven Network/7Plus, Fox Cricket/Kayo Sports (Australia) / Star Sports, Disney+ Hotstar (India)

Best Odds: Australia 1.46, India 3.60, Draw 13.00

An injury-hit India blew out further in markets on cricket betting sites during the week when it was confirmed that both Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill will be missing the first match of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, which in itself is now one of the premier Test series even without the enormous World Test Championship implications. 

They were already missing spearhead fast bowler Mohammed Shami, whose 31 wickets in Australia (six alone at Perth Stadium) would have added some significant power to their bowling lineup. 

India have been left scrambling to fill two of the top three spots in their batting order, and whilst it looks as though KL Rahul will be given the nod to open for the first time since the Aussies toured India in early 2023, his vulnerabilities were exposed both in Melbourne against Australia A and in Perth during match simulation practice. 

He scored just 2 & 0 in this corresponding match of 2018, and has just 175 runs from 11 innings as an opener since 2022, but unfortunately he wasn’t an option on our favourite Indian betting apps at time of publication so we’ll have to look elsewhere. 

With it looking increasingly likely that Australia will continue their dominance at the relatively new Perth Stadium, we’re instead hoping to carry on our good tipping form from the T20I tour of South Africa and have come up with three player predictions. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Australia won all four Perth Stadium Tests by at least 146 runs
• Virat Kohli scored 50+ in half of his last 20 Test innings in Australia
• Mitchell Starc has 23 wickets from the four Perth Stadium Tests
• Ashwin and Jadeja have bowling averages of 42 and 43 in Australia

Bounce and pace, Lyon’s ace

For all the hyperbole about Perth pitches being a fast bowler’s delight, the leading wicket-taker by a long way at Perth Stadium is actually legendary off-spinner Nathan Lyon.

27 of his 530 Test wickets have come from Australia’s four matches at Perth’s marquee stadium and he boasts the best average of the Aussie ‘big four’ (including Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood) that includes 8-106 from the India game in 2018.

He often benefits from pitches that generate pace and bounce, highlighted by bowling averages of 25 and 28 in Adelaide and Brisbane (compared with in the 30s at  the slower SCG and MCG), because it allows him to exaggerate his top-spin and climb that so often gets him catches around the bat.

He has unenviable head-to-head averages of 75 to Virat Kohli and 45 against Rishabh Pant, but outside of that there should be plenty of opportunities for him to take wickets against the likes of Padikkal, Jurel and potentially even Nitish Kumar Reddy - not to mention the tailenders. 

Lyon has taken over 4.5 wickets in all four matches at this venue, and in his first Test as a 37-year-old, he’s ready to go after taking ten wickets from two Sheffield Shield matches in October. 

Prediction: Nathan Lyon over 4.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

A new and difficult frontier awaits the new generation

By all reports, the now-injured Shubman Gill and opener Yashasvi Jaiswal were the most comfortable with the bat during the match simulation practice sessions at the WACA Ground, which permitted media attendance but no filming. 

He was dismissed for 15 attacking a length ball in the first innings of that practice match but went on to make amends and score 58 in the second as part of a preparation that is going to require him to learn on the fly. 

Put his Test average of 56 aside, for the overwhelming majority of his runs have been scored on home soil, and instead focus on the meagre 50 runs he made from four starts in the 2023/24 tour of South Africa, which is as close as he’ll have ever come to an Australian pitch so far. 

He averages less than 20 against pace deliveries on a good length and peppering the same part of the pitch is something that Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins especially excel at. 

If he brings his typically attacking game to Perth and takes on the wrong deliveries, he may get a rude awakening and open the door to some early dismissals. 

Prediction: Yashasvi Jaiswal under 63.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Labuschagne languishing wherever he goes

It’s a bold call to be writing off Perth Stadium’s leading run scorer, but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since Marnus Labuschagne posted four scores of 50+ in his first two Perth Stadium Tests against New Zealand and the West Indies.

He was found wanting by Pakistan’s speedsters last season, scoring only 18 match runs as part of a miserable home season that had many questioning his value to the team - an unthinkable prospect three years earlier when he topped the run scoring charts for the previous BGT in Australia with 426 runs. 

No matter the location or the format, he has found the going tough in the last year or two. 

There were two poor scores in the recent ODI series against Pakistan, 32 runs in a Sheffield Shield match at home to South Australia, and three low scores from four starts in the ODI tour of England.

Scores of 77 and 35 against Western Australia at the WACA Ground earlier this season is encouraging, but that was on one of the slowest and lowest surfaces the ground has produced in recent memory. 

Cricket betting apps have set him a mark of 75.5 runs for this Test, a number he has cleared in only 30% of his last ten matches and in none of his five away to India earlier last year. 

Prediction: Marnus Labuschagne under 75.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports