Australia v India Second Test: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• Australia to win - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports
• Mitchell Starc over 4.5 match wickets - 2.00 @ 22Bet Sports
• Shubman Gill under 62.5 match runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

When: Friday 6 December, 3:00pm AEDT (Australia) / 9:30am IST (India)

Where: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Watch: Seven Network/7Plus, Fox Cricket/Kayo Sports (Australia) / Star Sports, Disney+ Hotstar (India)

Best Odds: Australia 1.83, India 2.30, Draw 12.00

Despite the humiliation of a history making 3-0 loss at home to New Zealand, India appeared to be much better for the match practice when they blew away an undercooked Australia side that had not played Test cricket for nearly nine months.

Just as they did in their two previous Test tours, in which they were triumphant on both occasions, India were undermanned and had been written off the moment they stepped onto Australian soil. 

Cricket betting sites have shifted the odds significantly following India’s third-biggest winning margin (by runs) in their travelling history, though the difficulty is expected to be dialled up in a day-night pink ball Test, which the Australians have dominated for years. 

We’re expecting the host nation to have taken their Perth beating as a wake-up call after a poor preparation and that they’ll use their years of pink ball experience at home to get their campaign up and running belatedly. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Australia’s all-time batting average in pink ball Adelaide Tests is 40.29
• Marnus Labuschagne scored 50+ in half of his 14 pink ball innings
• Jasprit Bumrah averages 14.50 with the pink ball
• Steve Smith has one half-century (91*) from 12 innings in 2024

1-1 heading to Brisbane

India appear likely to disturb a winning formula and potentially even their opening partnership with the return of captain Rohit Sharma and number three Shubman Gill, who both face the tough task of starting a Test series against the pink ball. 

Despite the well documented advantage that comes with batting first in a pink ball Test, allowing a team to score quickly on a fresh pitch before then having a bowl in the evening, Australia have constructed a formidable record in spite of the toss more often than not going against them. 

Their 11 wins from 12 home day-night Tests, which saw their winning streak come to an end at the hands of Shamar Joseph in Brisbane last season, comes despite losing the coin toss on seven occasions. 

Their policy of retaining a core of several players for about a decade was the focus of Australian media following the loss in Perth, but those experienced players should come to the fore against a touring side that hasn’t played nearly as much pink ball cricket. 

It won’t be anything like the 36 all out of tours gone by, but Australia’s formidable pink ball record, which includes Scott Boland taking seven wickets at an average of just 13.71, should see this series evenly poised at one win apiece.

Prediction: Australia to win - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

King of the pink to rediscover former glory?

Australia’s Border-Gavaskar Trophy resurgence could be spearheaded by the undisputed king of the pink ball, whose underwhelming returns in Adelaide have made him a very appealing price on cricket betting apps.

The over/under count for Mitchell Starc’s match wickets has been set at just 4.5, a mark that he has cleared in a superb eight of the ten pink ball Tests in which he bowled at least 20 overs.

It’s worth noting that one of the two exceptions came in 2020 at home to India in Adelaide, where he claimed four first innings wickets before standing back whilst Cummins and Hazlewood ran rampant in that infamous 36 all out innings.

Starc averages just 16 runs and six overs per wicket in day-night Adelaide Tests, going along at 5.5 wickets per match. 

He has combined Test figures of 0-261 against the returning duo of Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill, but has never bowled to either of them with the pink ball, so this is a great chance to also turn those personal battles in his favour. 

Prediction: Mitchell Starc over 4.5 match wickets - 1.80 @ Rajabets Sports

Gill could face the demons of a WTC final gone by

It takes a brave person to back Shubman Gill not to perform at Test level, but the likely injection of Scott Boland into the match would make Gill's introduction to the series all that tougher.

Boland’s nagging accuracy and subtle seam movement kept Gill’s involvement in the WTC final to a minimum as he was dismissed for just 13 and 18, bowled whilst leaving and then caught at gully off a bouncy delivery. 

He returned from injury with a 50 not out in Canberra against a bowling attack at below state level and with a ball that was barely moving under lights, whilst he didn’t face Boland for lengthy periods in that match. 

He comes into this match with no experience in Adelaide and only one pink ball Test under his belt, and with technical deficiencies against the swinging ball, may find himself short of runs during the difficult twilight periods. 

We’ll be waiting for the coin toss result before pulling the trigger on this, for it may not be as high value a play if India get to bat first in the afternoon on day one. 

Prediction: Shubman Gill under 62.5 match runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports