India v South Africa Fourth T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v South Africa predictions: 

• Reeza Hendricks over 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Suryakumar Yadav over 29.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Tilak Varma over 25.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Friday 15 November, 8:30pm IST

Where: Wanderers, Johannesburg

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: South Africa 2.10, India 1.72

The four-game T20I series between South Africa and India comes to an end in the country’s largest city, with the Wanderers Stadium in Johannesburg to host its 26th T20I and its first since India toured the country for two matches last year.

India were 106-run victors on that occasion thanks to a century from captain SKY and five wickets from Kuldeep Yadav, the latter of whom has since been overshadowed by leg-spin pair Varun Chakravarthy and Ravi Bishnoi.

One of those two could make way for a fast bowler (such as Avesh Khan or Yash Dayal) if India wish to retain Axar Patel and rebalance their lineup after the Proteas got a little too comfortable with Bishnoi and Chakravarthy in Centurion. 

Cricket betting sites have wound India’s odds in by about five percent in response to their narrow 11-run win in Centurion and the tourists will again face South Africa at another venue where the Proteas have not performed well in T20Is lately. 

Readers of our regular India best bets blog came out on top again in the previous game and we’re looking to end the series on a positive note in more ways than one, choosing three batters to all exceed expectations at a ground where 200+ scores are commonplace.

The Numbers That Matter

• South Africa lost four of their last five Johannesburg T20Is
• The average run rate in Johannesburg T20Is is 8.78rpo (8.90rpo for South Africa)
• Six of the last eight Johannesburg T20Is were won batting first
• Keshav Maharaj took 2-26 from four overs in the last Jo’burg T20I 

Reeza’s love affair with Jozi

There are two South African men to have struck three T20I half-centuries at Wanderers, and they both needed just four innings to do it.

One is Proteas legend Graeme Smith, who did it from 2005 to 2007, and the other is what we hope will be our first winning bet of the evening.

Reeza Hendrick was run out for a score of just 8 at Wanderers against India last year but that followed three fifties from his first four starts at the venue, including a 70 against the Indians in 2018. 

He now has an even closer familiarity with Wanderers as a Joburg Super Kings batter, including scores of 79 and 27 there in this year’s SA20 tournament. 

After missing the first match with illness he has gotten off to starts in his two innings but has been unable to go on with it so far, dismissed by Varun Chakravarthy on both occasions (21 and 24). 

On a pitch that should be less helpful to Varun, and one that Hendricks should be more familiar with, we’re expecting him to produce his best score of the series here. 

Prediction: Reeza Hendricks over 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

India’s captain to also go out on a personal high

He led the way as the pick of India’s batters in this corresponding tour of late 2023, but Suryakumar Yadav’s 2024 tour as captain could hardly have been anything different. 

Cricket betting apps are again setting him an over/under mark of 29.5 runs despite him falling short of that in all three innings so far, having been dismissed on all three occasions by bowlers he had never faced in any cricket prior to this series. 

His nemesis has been Andile Simelane (2-5 from 8 balls), who could very well be rested for this final game, and against the remainder of South Africa’s third T20I bowling attack, he has scored 154 runs in all T20 cricket (international and IPL) for just one dismissal.

Many of those 154 runs came from his match-winning century at the Wanderers last year, which should give him some confidence to return to some better batting just as his teammate Abhishek Sharma did in Centurion. 

Prediction: Suryakumar Yadav over 29.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

India’s newest centurion growing in confidence

Tilak Varma racked up 15 boundaries in 56 balls in Centurion to produce a match-best 107* at a phenomenal strike rate of 191, ensuring that this time he converted a start after not managing to do so in the first two innings. 

There was a 33 and a 20 to his name in those two matches, so if he has gained any confidence from his maiden century - and his own assessment of it as “a good knock” suggests he has - then a mark of 25.5 runs should be well within reach now that he averages 40 in T20Is against South Africa’s last bowling attack. 

All the more impressive, it came in what was a high-pressure situation with the series level at 1-1 in what Tilak described as “like a series decider”. 

He’s the only man of either side to score 20+ runs in all three games this series and therefore the one you ought to be most confident about when backing him to exceed the over/under score. 

Prediction: Tilak Varma over 25.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports