India v New Zealand First Test: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v New Zealand predictions: 

• India to win - 1.8 @ Rajabets Sports
• R Ashwin over 5.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Shubman Gill over 73.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Wednesday 16 October, 9:30am IST

Where: M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: India 1.80, Draw 2.40, New Zealand 11

The mostly highly anticipated series of the Indian home season will see the host nation look to all but confirm their place in the 2025 World Test Championship final ahead of a gruelling five-game tour of Australia later this year.

The Gautam Gambhir era has started perfectly with five wins from five games across two formats against Bangladesh, and now the difficulty dial will be turned up a notch with 

An unusually dry September in Bengaluru was followed by the return of monsoonal rains later than usual, with the rain expected to continue well into this week.

That’s why cricket betting sites have such short odds for the draw compared with a regular Test match in India, with the absolute worst case scenario being a complete wipeout of the first two days. 

But India recently demonstrated that they don’t need more than three days to complete a Test victory at home, and against a side who recently struggled with the bat against Sri Lanka, they should have the class to get the job done again. 

The Numbers That Matter

• New Zealand’s last Test win in India was 1988 (D9, L10 since)
• 358 is the average first innings score at the Chinnaswamy
• Jasprit Bumrah v New Zealand in Tests: 6-282 (avg 47, SR 98.3 balls)
• Tim Southee took 0-1 wickets in 14 of his last 15 Test innings

Rain won’t stop the India juggernaut

Depending on your trusted source of choice, the weather forecast for Wednesday and Thursday ranges anywhere from persistent rain to cloud cover with the occasional thundershower. 

If fewer than 90 overs are lost to rain during the match, that should be more than enough time for a result, particularly with overcast conditions and the pitch likely to assist fast bowling during those two days. 

The Indians are unbeaten across eight consecutive Tests in Bengaluru (W5, D3) starting with a draw against Pakistan in 2007 and it most recently includes a two-day victory against Afghanistan and a 238-run belting of Sri Lanka in March 2022. 

About half of the New Zealand squad has no Test experience in India and those who do have some sketchy records of sorts, be it Devon Conway’s 25% success rate of scoring 25+ in Asia, Tim Southee’s Test bowling average of 73 this calendar year, or Ajaz Patel’s figures of 0-135 in his last game in Sri Lanka. 

New Zealand have won just two of their 36 Tests away played in India, and on the basis of their 2-0 loss to Sri Lanka last month, it looks as though only the weather can get in the way of a seventh consecutive home Test win for India. 

Prediction: India to win - 1.8 @ Rajabets Sports

Riding the Ashwin train all the way home!

The evergreen Player of the Series against Bangladesh fell one wicket short of delivering gambling.com readers a profitable second Test when he took five for the match, but on one of his favourite grounds we’re backing him to go one step further. 

The Blackcaps have six left-handers in their Test squad and are expected to select at least five of them, including opening pair Devon Conway and new captain Tom Latham, and Ashwin’s prowess with the new ball makes him a deadly prospect even from the opening session.

Ashwin is not only the leading wicket-taker in Bengaluru Tests, averaging 5.27 wickets per match there, but also has more wickets in India-NZ Tests than any other man with 66 from nine Tests at an average of less than 17.

That includes eight dismissals of Kiwi opener Tom Latham at an astonishing average in the 15s and figures of 2-3 against wicketkeeper Tom Blundell. 

The 38-year-old has cleared over 5.5 wickets in 15 of his 19 Tests on home soil since 2021, which is a very encouraging 79% of the time. 

Prediction: R Ashwin over 5.5 wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Bruised but not defeated

• Shubman Gill came into this match averaging 75.25 (301/4) in all internationals against New Zealand’s last Test bowling attack. 
• Mitchell Santner to Shubman Gill in all internationals: 1-136 from 121 balls
• Tim Southee to Shubman Gill in all internationals: 1-73 from 141 balls

Shubman Gill had his second-worst Test of 2024 in Kanpur, but like Ashwin before him, has a favourable recent record that gives us the confidence that he’ll exceed the 73.5 run match mark set by Indian betting apps. 

This will be his first Test appearance at the Chinnaswamy but he would have some pleasant memories of its surroundings, having recorded 53 against the Netherlands in the 2023 ODI World Cup as well as a 50-ball IPL century against RCB earlier that year. 

Gill had amassed at least 90 match runs in each of the five preceding Tests prior to his failure in Kanpur, whilst he also did so in his last Test appearance against the Blackcaps.

Across all three international formats, Gill averages an outstanding 75 (301-4) against the last bowling attack used by New Zealand in Sri Lanka. 

That includes 136 runs off the bowling of Mitchell Santner for one dismissal, and 73 off Southee also for one dismissal, so he boasts excellent recent Test history as well as a domination of at least two of the Kiwi bowlers expected to play. 

Prediction: Shubman Gill over 73.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports