India v South Africa First T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v South Africa predictions: 

• India to win - 2.1 @ Rajabets Sports
• Suryakumar Yadav over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Reeza Hendricks over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Friday 8 November, 9:30pm IST

Where: Kingsmead, Durban

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: South Africa 1.83, India 2.1

Not since the T20 World Cup have India played anything close to a full strength T20I side, and with the Test team preparing for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy off the back of a disastrous home series against New Zealand, that will again be the case here.

A composite side of white ball specialists and second-choice fringe players, led by Suryakumar Yadav in his fifth T20I series as skipper (and second in South Africa), will play an unusual four games across the rainbow nation. 

Cricket betting sites across the world have little between these two teams, offering great wagering opportunities across the board. 

At a venue that produced a run rate of 8.54rpo in this year’s SA20, we’re predicting a couple of household names to do well with the bat. 

The Numbers That Matter

• South Africa lost their last four T20Is in Durban (to England and Australia)
• The average first innings score in Durban (last decade) is 184
• Gerald Coetzee in Durban T20Is: 3-108 from 9.5 overs
• Arshdeep Singh took 2+ wickets in ten of 14 T20Is this year

The visitors to go 1-0 up

Despite barnstorming their way to the T20 World Cup final, South Africa comes into this series in horrendous form after being clean swept by the West Indies (3-0) and suffering their first ever defeat to Ireland (1-1) in late September.

This is their first engagement at home since the 2023/24 season, when they lost 3-0 to Australia in Durban and drew 1-1 with an Indian side a little stronger on paper than this one, but that series should serve as great experience for those who are back again. 

India sending these so-called ‘second string’ T20I sides around the world during a congested calendar means that many of the players picked for this series now have ample international experience, with no fewer than eight members having played T20Is in South Africa and/or Zimbabwe. 

Abhishek Sharma, Axar Patel, Sanju Samson and Rinku Singh are just some of the group that have been in sparkling form across various formats this year, and with four of them carrying the highs of the T20 World Cup final into this series, they appear to be a well-placed underdog. 

Prediction: India to win - 2.1 @ Rajabets Sports

Suryakumar Yadav dominates the Proteas everywhere

South Africa must be Suryakumar Yadav’s favourite opponent if his T20I numbers are anything to go by, with his seven innings across three continents producing five 50+ scores at a jaw-dropping scoring rate of 10.54rpo. 

Perhaps most importantly as far as this series is concerned, he returned scores of 100 and 56 in charge of the two-T20I tour of South Africa in December 2023, racking up 11 sixes along the way. 

He also has half-centuries against Australia (80, Visakhapatnam), Sri Lanka (58, Pallekele) and most recently Bangladesh (75, Hyderabad) as India captain, demonstrating on multiple fronts that leadership is not a drag on his own individual output. 

Averaging 38 as a captain, 36 in all T20Is outside of India and 31 across the world this year, he looks well placed to clear the 26.5 over/under mark set by Indian betting apps. 

Prediction: Suryakumar Yadav over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Reeza Hendricks shines in this part of the country

The 73-cap South African had a nightmare T20 World Cup with seven scores of fewer than 20 runs from his nine starts, but has since sharpened up with back-to-back 51s in the drawn series with Ireland as well as a pair of half-centuries in the CSA T20 Challenge back home.

It means that he has a wealth of T20 cricket under his belt since the World Cup and enough runs to give us confidence that he can bounce back from his score of 4 in the World Cup final against India. 

Kingsmead is a ground that has been quite favourable to him in the past, with his four innings at the venue returning three scores of 40+ runs including two against Australia in 2023. 

If he can get past Arshdeep Singh, who has a tremendous white ball record of 3-35 against him, he should use his sound technique against spin to also clear the 26.5 run threshold. 

Prediction: Reeza Hendricks over 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports