India v Bangladesh Third T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Bangladesh predictions: 

• India’s opening partnership under 29.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Tanzim Hasan Sakib 2+ wickets - 3.4 @ Rajabets Sports
• Abhishek Sharma over 29.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Saturday 12 October, 7:00pm IST

Where: Rajiv Gandhi Stadium, Hyderabad

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: India 1.12, Bangladesh 6.50

It has been a perfect series so far not only for the Indian cricket team but for readers of our cricket betting blog who, if they followed our three winning selections from the second T20I in Delhi, would have once again nearly doubled their investment. 

The two teams have been worlds apart in both Gwalior and Delhi so far and, with almost the same five-run gap between the run rates of both sides in game two of the series, cricket betting sites have stuck with the same win odds and team handicaps for the finale in Hyderabad.

But a different venue presents new challenges for each player, and with this just the third T20I to take place in the City of Pearls, recent IPL history can offer a valuable insight into how some players may fare here.

For the final time in this series, before we quickly turn our attention back to the red ball next week, we’ve picked our three best tips from the India v Bangladesh third T20I.

The Numbers That Matter

• The average run rate in Hyderabad during IPL 2024 was 9.99rpo
• Suryakumar Yadav top scored with 69 in the last T20I in Hyderabad
• Taskin Ahmed’s 2-16 on Wednesday was his only 2+ wicket haul from 16 away T20Is (excl. neutral venues)
• Hardik Pandya averages 13.50 with the bat in IPL games in Hyderabad (best: 24)
• Washington Sundar to Shanto in this series: 2-2 from 5 balls

Markets overestimating the opening combination

Whilst we’re anticipating Abhishek Sharma to thrive with both bat and ball on his beloved IPL ground (more on that later), both he and Sanju Samson have struggled for fluency in this series.

Neither batter has managed to record a score of 30, both shooting themselves in the foot after looking a little too keen, and as a result the opening partnership has been broken up within two overs on both occasions.

That was a problem that often plagued the previous combination of Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, and as a consequence we believe we’ve found a very high value play here in the opening partnership market.

Set by most Indian betting apps at the 29.5 run mark or thereabouts, a threshold that India’s openers have cleared in just four of their last 23 T20Is, despite winning 21 of them.

That’s a 17% success rate as far as this particular market is concerned, so it’s one we can take with great confidence irrespective of the final result.

Prediction: India’s opening partnership under 29.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

A strike bowler of the future

Sometimes we find our selections synergising with one another and we’re hoping that Tanzim Hasan Sakib is the one to break the opening partnership early, for he would be halfway to the 2+ wicket haul we’re backing here.

Shanto opened the bowling with Mehidy Hasan in Delhi with no success and is therefore likely to go back to two pace bowlers to share the new ball. 

Tanzim was Bangladesh’s lead bowler during the T20 World Cup and is not part of the Test setup, so it was bizarre not to see him bowling in Gwalior, though it could well be that it’s all part of a rotation plan that sees Shoriful replace Taskin for this match so that they get two each. 

He’s been a breath of fresh air in the way he has fearlessly attacked any batter, particularly during the powerplay overs with accurate variety, and whilst his last two overs on Wednesday went for 35, he still came out with two scalps.

Tanzim has taken 2+ wickets in four of his last five T20Is when bowling at least four overs and we’re going to go for glory here with what will hopefully be another. 

Prediction: Tanzim Hasan Sakib 2+ wickets - 3.4 @ Rajabets Sports

A big return to his second home is coming

Punjab-born Abhishek Sharma has become a cult favourite in Hyderabad after six IPL seasons in orange, especially in 2024 where he scored nearly 500 runs across the season at a strike rate of better than 200. 

He’s yet to find his best in this series, but a return to familiar comforts could be precisely what he needs. 

The best Indian bookmakers have set him an over/under mark of 28.5 runs for the third T20I and he breached that number in five of his six IPL innings in Hyderabad this year, including three quickfire half-centuries. 

But the value is to be found in the ‘player performance’ market, where Abhishek would be awarded one point per run and 20 per wicket, so even if he didn’t carry that IPL form into this match and score 30+ runs, a repeat of his bowling efforts in Delhi where he yorked Towhid Hridoy would likely get him over the line.

Prediction: Abhishek Sharma over 29.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports