India v Bangladesh First T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Bangladesh predictions: 

• India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports
• Arshdeep Singh 2+ wickets - 2.2 @ Rajabet Sports
• Mahmudullah under 21.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Sunday 6 October, 7:00pm IST

Where: Shrimant Madhavrao Scindia Cricket Stadium, Gwalior

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: India 1.12, Bangladesh 6.00

The central state of Madhya Pradesh will take centre stage for the first time since September 2023 when Gwalior’s brand new cricket stadium hosts its first international four months after being inaugurated by Jay Shah, Kapil Dev and other dignitaries.

Located north-west of the city centre’s Captain Roop Singh Stadium, where Sachin Tendulkar recorded the first ODI double century in 2010, the brand new venue will add some interesting unknowns into a series that already has some variables.

India have recently moved on from Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Ravindra Jadeja in this format and have also selected an entirely different squad to the one that took part in the 2-0 Test series win.

As we do with each game involving the men in blue, we have scanned the many markets offered by one of the best betting sites for cricket in the country and have picked out three plays you should consider for this Sunday night match.

The Numbers That Matter

• India won nine of their last ten home T20Is
• Bangladesh lost seven of their last nine T20Is v full members (excluding Zimbabwe)
• India also has a 13-1 T20I record against Bangladesh in all countries
• Sanju Samson scored 30+ in only five of 26 T20I innings

India’s first wicket to be the most profitable

India are anticipating to field a brand new T20I opening partnership with Shubman Gill being rested following his Test involvement, though we’re not expecting that to be to their detriment.

Abhishek Sharma is the only full-time opening batter in the squad and could be joined by wicketkeeper Sanju Samson, who has opened in 45 career T20s including five for his country. 

Bangladesh are likely to field a familiar combination, having tried two opening partnerships at the recent T20 World Cup with no success with either. 

Litton Das and Tanzid Hasan combined for 35 runs in Bangladesh’s largest opening stand across their seven World Cup games, with the other six all producing 16 or fewer runs, and even then they were still outscored by Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli (39). 

Their other potential opener, captain Najmul Hossain Shanto, is averaging just 16 in T20Is this year, whilst the experienced Litton averages 14 in India and Tanzid just 16 from his nine ODIs in the country. 

Prediction: India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports

Back to one of our favourite plays of 2024

Arshdeep Singh has been India’s second-busiest T20I cricketer of the year and his consistent wicket-taking ability in the format has brought long-time followers of our cricket betting blog great profits.

He recorded 2+ wicket hauls on eight separate occasions at the T20 World Cup, delivering money to our readers in games against Ireland and Bangladesh among others. 

Arshdeep is averaging two wickets per innings in 2024 (24 from 12) as a result and has a two-from-two strike rate taking 2+ wickets against Bangladesh when bowling a full four-over quota. 

On what should be a fresh pitch at a brand new stadium, and in the same state as Indore where he took 3-32 opening the bowling against Afghanistan earlier this year, it’s frankly remarkable that Indian betting apps are offering better than even money for him to continue his superb form. 

We’re certainly not complaining!

Prediction: Arshdeep Singh 2+ wickets - 2.2 @ Rajabet Sports

Bangladesh’s struggling veteran to be out of his depth

Some of Bangladesh’s greatest mediocrity was on display in their last World Cup game when they failed to chase 116 against Afghanistan to make the semi-finals, and 38-year-old Mahmudullah was part of the rot.

His ugly cross-batted heave against Rashid Khan on an inconsistent Arnos Vale pitch continued a dramatic collapse that seemed to have spelled the end of Mahmudullah’s international career. 

Despite selectors moving on from Shakib Al Hasan in T20s, they’ve stuck with Mahmudullah despite some horrendous returns that would leave him closer to a liability than an asset in the team.

Batting in the lower order these days, he’s averaging fewer than 20 runs per innings since the start of 2023 (whether out or not out) and almost rarely bowls nowadays, sending down just 14.3 overs of his gentle medium pace in 17 matches this year.

That’s why we’re keen to take the ‘unders’ in the player performance market, which assigns each player with one point per run, ten per catch and 20 per wicket. 

Since his unexpected return to the T20I team in March, Mahmudullah scored fewer than 20 player performance points in 12 of his 17 appearances, including just 13 points against India. 

Prediction: Mahmudullah under 21.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports