2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup Analysis, Odds and Tips: How Far Can The Tall Blacks Go?

Four years after Rudy Fernández and Spain lifted their second FIBA World Cup in Beijing, 32 nations are descending upon east Asia with all roads leading to the 15,000-seat Mall of Asia Arena in Manila for the final on September 10 and betting sites have odds at the ready.

A regular at this event, the Tall Blacks fell agonisingly short of getting through to the Round of 16 when a Giannis Antetokounmpo double-double saw them lose a decisive game to Greece.

They don’t have Giannis to contend with this time around, but the Greeks have nonetheless appeared a formidable side leading into this event. 

New Zealand’s aspirations took an enormous hit when they (alongside Jordan) got drawn into the only one of the eight groups with two top-10 nations, and whilst their lead-in form hasn’t been promising with losses to the likes of Canada, China and Italy, they have gotten into the top 16 on four occasions.

Their furthest journey in the event was now more than two decades ago - a run to the semis in 2002 - but All-Star Five inclusion Pero Cameron now leads the side as head coach and brings a valuable insight into succeeding at this particular tournament.

Tall Blacks Group Stage Fixtures

• vs USA, 27 August 12:40am NZT
• vs Jordan, 28 August 8:45pm NZT
• vs Greece, 31 Aug 12:40am NZT

U-S-A All The Way!

Sometimes there’s no fun in backing favourites, but sometimes there appears to be little sense in playing around them. This could be one of those situations.

They head to Manila looking to break away from former Yugoslavia to become the first nation to win six FIBA World Cups and bookmakers have them as very strong favourites to do so.

Some have argued that the Americans were handed the World Cup the moment the draw was completed. 

Through sheer fortune, they’ve ended up on the other half of the draw to their nearest competitors such as Spain, France, Canada and Australia, and they could in fact (should things work out that way) avoid all four of those nations until the semi-finals.

This affords a squad with no international experience ample opportunity to perfect their gameplan, rotations, and manage the workload of stars such as Jaren Jackson, Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram.

Their dominant performance in the early stages of 2019, where they advanced into the quarter-finals with a points difference of +107 from five wins, suggests they’ll be taking every opponent seriously irrespective of the draw.

Albeit with a different roster and head coach, the Olympic champions avenged their elimination to France in 2019 and Steve Kerr should know how to get the best out of them at the business end of the tournament.

It pays to shop around particularly in futures markets, and at the time of writing Bet365 were offering close to even money, standing out above the rest.

Tip: USA to win the World Cup - 1.9 With Bet365 

Group H: Who Wins This Two-Horse Race?

One futures bet that caught our eye during our production of this piece was that Bet365, unlike the rest of the competition, are rating France as narrow favourites ahead of Canada to win Group H. 

The only thing that NZ betting apps are agreeing on is that the two basketball powerhouses are practically guaranteed progression through to the next round, and the victor of their matchup will carry a crucial advantage into a cut-throat Group L that will also almost certainly include Spain.

Canada brings to this World Cup a golden generation jam packed with NBA superstars such as RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks and OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is joint-favourite for the tournament top point scorer with the best basketball betting sites.

France are a formidable threat blessed with experienced talent, though the absence of young superstar Victor Wenbanyama doesn’t do them any favours, whilst their 10-game winning streak leading into the World Cup came to an end at the hands of the Boomers last week.

If you believe the Canadians have an edge on France in Group H, the best thing you can do is to take the 2.1 on offer for them to win the group.

It’s a much better price than any other book, including William Hill themselves, are offering for Canada to win their opening game against France, which is almost certain to be the one that decides the group winner. 

Tip: Canada to win Group H - 2.1 with William Hill

But Will Canada Get Past The Boomers?

If you’re sitting on the French side of the fence - or even if you’re not - we’ve come across one particularly interesting play that looks to be sound value.

Bet365 offers some interesting head-to-head tournament matchups on which nation will finish with the highest classification, and whilst it’s difficult to find value in markets priced at around 107%, we can back this one quite confidently.

Should Canada fail against the French and finish second in Group H, they’re almost certainly going to have to defeat the world’s highest ranked nation (Spain) to get through to the quarter-finals, where they could possibly face the Boomers themselves.

The Australians, on the other hand, are likely to be grouped with Slovenia and Venezuela (as well as the other Group E nation) in the second round, which gives them quite a soft path into the quarter-finals. 

We expect Australia to be shorter than 1.8 if they are to face Canada in the quarter-finals, whilst they’re certainly in a better position than the Canadians to get there in the first place.

Tip: Australia to finish above Canada - 1.8 With Bet365  

New Zealand’s First Game Will Be Closer Than You Think

New Zealand scored more than 90 points in each of their three 2019 WC matches, but it was their defending against Brazil and Greece that let them down.

They reached the ton five times in qualifying for this event, suffered tight losses to China and Italy in warm-ups, and should be feeling confident after making the podium at last year’s Asia Cup.

First up, they meet the tournament favourites for the first time since a 27-point loss at the 2014 World Cup. 

Whilst we agree with the markets that the USA stand alone in favouritism, it wouldn’t surprise if such a young team who are so green on the international stage need a couple of games to get into the swing of things.

They didn’t cover the line that has been set for them here in any of their four warm-up games against World Cup participants, albeit some much stronger ones such as Spain and Greece, but if the Tall Blacks are allowed to score prolifically as they can do, it’ll be tough to win by a margin in the high-30s or greater.

Tip: New Zealand +36.5 points (v USA) -1.9 With William Hill