2022 State Of Origin Game III Preview, Betting Odds & Analysis

It was short odds on sports betting nz that this year’s State of Origin series would go to a decider, and that’s exactly where we find ourselves as New South Wales and Queensland are set to battle it out for rugby league supremacy. 

The Queenslanders will have the home ground advantage, with a sold out 50,000 strong crowd set to greet them at Brisbane’s iconic Suncorp Stadium.

They are coming off the back of a humiliating 44-12 loss in Perth in game two, in which the Blues bounced back in fine style to level the series. 

This is as big as it gets for Origin, with New South Wales going in slight favourites in the State of Origin betting odds.

What Happened In The Last Game

Held on neutral territory at Optus Stadium in Perth, the two teams went tit for tat in the first half. 

Queensland scored two good tries to Felise Kaufusi and Cameron Munster, while New South Wales hit back through debutant Matt Burton and Brian To’o. A Nathan Cleary penalty goal was all that separated them as New South Wales led 14-12 at the break.

It was all on for a titanic struggle in the second, but Queensland simply left it all in the changing rooms. 

New South Wales ran away with the game, scoring another five tries to make it a statement victory. Cleary’s perfect night with the boot and two tries saw him finish with 24 points.

Afterwards, Queensland coach Billy Slater and captain Daly Cherry-Evans seemed like they wanted to move on from the result quickly, noting they had plenty to be happy with in the performance.

In reality, it felt as though everyone involved always knew it would come down to the third game to decide Origin for 2022.

The Teams

After the wholesale changes to his game two side, New South Wales coach Brad Fittler has only made the one enforced change for this one. Payne Haas is out with injury, so he is replaced by Cowboys prop Jordan McLean. 

Felise Kaufusi is out for family reasons, so McLean’s Cowboys teammate Tom Gilbert joins the Queensland bench and Jeremiah Nanai moves into the starting team. 

There is a slight question mark over Cameron Munster’s fitness, if he is ruled out that may result in a call up for Sam Walker into what will easily be the biggest game of his young career.

Interestingly, Fittler has resisted the temptation to bring Jack Wighton into the starting line-up after his good form for Canberra lately. 

Matt Burton keeps his starting centre spot after an impressive debut in game two, while Stephen Crichton will line up in the other centre position and the Blues are 7/10 frontrunners with sports betting app to win the decider. 

Line-Ups:

New South Wales Blues: 1. James Tedesco (c) (Sydney Roosters), 2. Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers), 3. Matt Burton (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 4. Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers), 5. Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters), 6. Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers), 7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers), 8. Jordan McLean (North Queensland Cowboys), 9. Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers), 10. Jake Trbojevic (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles), 11. Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 12. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers), 13. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers).

Interchange: 14. Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 15. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters), 16. Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels), 17. Siosifa Talakai (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks).

Queensland Maroons: 1. Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights), 2. Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos), 3. Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys), 4. Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights), 5. Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys), 6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm), 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly Sea Eagles), 8. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters), 9. Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons), 10. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders), 11. Kurt Capewell (Brisbane Broncos), 12. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys), 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans).

Interchange: 14. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm), 15. Jai Arrow (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 16. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos), 17. Tom Gilbert (North Queensland Cowboys).

Where Game 3 Will Be Won

As always, a lot of Queensland’s hopes will rest on Cherry-Evans and his ability to unlock a stubborn New South Wales defence. You can find the Maroons as 5/4 outsiders to win the game with bet365. 

He’ll be hoping for more of a platform he got in game one, when the likes of Josh Papalii, Patrick Carrigan and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui gave him all the room he needed to engineer victory.

Cleary and Jarome Luai answered a lot of critics with their dominant display in game two, if they can get anywhere near that sort of momentum again they will be hard to stop. 

Crichton needs a big game to shut down the chatter about him being replaced.

Out wide, Blues wingers Daniel Tupou and Brian To’o are likely to feature on the scoresheet like they did in game two, while Selwyn Cobbo and Murray Taulagi should do the same for the Maroons. 

There isn’t just going to be a big crowd behind the Queenslanders, history is too at Suncorp Stadium. 

The last five deciders played there have gone the way of the home side: 20-14 in 2020, 22-6 in 2017, 52-6 in 2015, 21-20 in 2012 and 34-24 in 2011.

Previous Results:

QLD series wins: 22

NSW series wins: 16

Drawn series: 2

Last Five Series:

2021 NSW 2-1

2020 QLD 2-1

2019 NSW 2-1

2018 NSW 2-1

2017 QLD 2-1

2021 Results:

Game 1: NSW 50 QLD 6

Game 2: NSW 26 QLD 0

Game 3: QLD 20 NSW 18

2022 Result:

Game 1: QLD 16 NSW 10

Game 2: NSW 44 QLD 12

Trivia

The first State of Origin match was played in 1980, after the old state representative series had been played under the selection rules that dictated that players play for the state that they played their club football for. NSW had long dominated due to their superior competition, but Queensland memorably won the first ever Origin game by 20-10.

Lang Park, now known as Suncorp Stadium, has hosted the most Origin games with 54. Accor Stadium in Sydney is second with 26, having taken over from the old Sydney Football Stadium in 1999. The largest crowd for an Origin game is 91,513 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in 1995.

The most tries in a match is three, which is shared by nine players. The only man to achieve the feat twice is NSW’s Tom Trbojevic in 2019 and 2021.