England v New Zealand ODI Series: Latest Odds, Analysis and Betting Picks

When: September 8-15 (all 11:30pm NZST starts)

Where: Cardiff, Southampton, London

Watch: TVNZ 2, TVNZ+

Best Odds (first ODI): England 1.5, New Zealand 2.62 

After the fun of the four T20Is, it’s time for things to get super serious. New Zealand have just four games against England plus an official World Cup warm-up game in India to get ready for going one step better than 2019, whilst England have seven ODIs that include this series and three against non-World Cup side Ireland.

There could be no better opposition for the two finalists of the 2019 World Cup to test their progress over the last four years than against one another, in a series which culminates at the very venue where the unforgettable final was played out.

Betting sites are at the ready once again and so are we, and after New Zealand spoiled our series win bet on the enemy with one of their typical comebacks, we’re now waving the Kiwi flag for the first ODI in Cardiff in search of some value.

The Numbers That Matter

• Eight of the last 10 one-day games (intl or county) in Cardiff had successful run chases, as did seven of the last 11 ODIs
• Six of the last eight ODIs in Cardiff saw the team that batted first bowled out for less than 240
• Tim Southee has figures of 1/148 against Joe Root in white ball internationals
• Mark Wood and Chris Woakes have taken only six and five wickets each from their five ODIs in Cardiff

England Team News

Squad (ODI caps): Jos Buttler (c, 165), Moeen Ali (129), Gus Atkinson (0), Jonny Bairstow (95), Brydon Carse (9), Sam Curran (23), Liam Livingstone (12), Dawid Malan (18), Adil Rashid (125), Joe Root (158), Jason Roy (116), Ben Stokes (105), Reece Topley (22), Mark Wood (59), David Willey (64), Chris Woakes (112)

England white ball coach Matthew Mott has promised every player in the 15-man squad will get “a really good opportunity to show what they've got”, and that could even include fast bowler Brydon Carse, who is the only member of the 16-man squad for this series not in England’s 15-man provisional squad for the upcoming World Cup.

But it’s safe to say those 15 will take priority in this series, particularly as England look to re-assimilate Test captain Ben Stokes into the ODI setup following his reversal of retirement in the format. 

There was also the explicit admission earlier in the week that Harry Brook has an outstanding chance of sneaking into that World Cup squad at the expense of a previously selected player, which will put immense pressure on the middle order incumbents and possibly even the six fast bowlers, one of whom could be forced to make way for Brook later this month.

It is anticipated that Carse, Atkinson and Willey will be at the bottom of the pecking order, whilst Woakes, Wood and Topley are also likely to be fighting for two bowling slots.

New Zealand Team News

Squad (ODI caps): Tom Latham (c, 130), Finn Allen (18), Trent Boult (99), Devon Conway (18), Lockie Ferguson (53), Matt Henry (72), Kyle Jamieson (8), Adam Milne (45), Daryl Mitchell (25), Henry Nicholls (66), Glenn Phillips (16), Rachin Ravindra (5), Mitchell Santner (93), Tim Southee (154), Will Young (15)

As long as he continues to play around the world without a national team contract, Trent Boult will be the talking point of each new New Zealand squad announcement regardless of whether he is present or absent.

His selection for this ODI series has all but confirmed he is an integral part of New Zealand’s World Cup plans, and should return to international cricket for the first time since the 2022 T20 World Cup for what would be his 100th ODI.

There’s otherwise not much that is at all controversial about this Blackcaps squad that mixes a lot of experience with the future of the side such as Finn Allen, Glenn Phillips and Rachin Ravindra.

It must be of some concern for the future that Kyle Jamieson at age 28 is their youngest fast bowler of the selected quintet, but there’s still no shortage of competition amongst the five of them with Adam Milne the least likely to be selected.

The omission of leg-spinner Ish Sodhi gives space for a four-pronged seam attack in addition to 10 overs amongst Mitchell Santner and possibly even Daryl Mitchell or Glenn Phillips, depending on the pitch underneath them.

Time is running out for Kane Williamson to prove himself fit for the World Cup and he won’t get his opportunity here, meaning that guys like Henry Nicholls, Glenn Phillips and Will Young need to make a case to retain their places should Williamson be able to slot back in.

England v New Zealand ODI Series: What Could Happen?

After winning the third and fourth T20Is with some sharply improved performances, New Zealand now have the momentum heading into the first ODI, but the best cricket betting sites are still grading them as fairly healthy outsiders against the reigning world champions.

That’s despite the Blackcaps overtaking England on the ICC ODI rankings (to fourth) with series wins against India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the last 12 months; whilst England lost to Australia, India and failed to defeat South Africa twice.

England’s slide in this format is also represented by a negative W2 L3 record at Sophia Gardens, the venue for the first ODI of the series, since the start of 2022.

Cardiff is certainly more favourable to seamers than to spinners, with fast bowlers taking nearly three times as many wickets as tweakers in ODIs since 2019, and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to argue that New Zealand bring the better fast bowling attack into this series.

But it’s their batting that could be lacking, particularly with Kane Williamson absent and the other pair of veterans Henry Nicholls and Tom Latham both out of form in 2023.

If New Zealand get the opportunity to bowl first we’ll be especially keen to take them as the underdogs here, though the price on offer would not be as juicy with betting apps after the coin toss should they win it.

One Englishman who stood out above the rest when scouring the archives for this venue is England captain Jos Buttler, who boasts five half-centuries from eight ODI innings in Cardiff.

We’re expecting him to have a ‘Wales’ of a time and show the way for his colleagues, irrespective of the result.

Best Bet: New Zealand to win the 1st ODI - 2.62 With Bet365

Player Prop: Jos Buttler England Hi Bat (1st ODI) - 5.5 With Bet365