East Midlands Mayor Odds: Labour Backed To Beat Tory MP Ben Bradley

Betting sites believe Conservative MP Ben Bradley will fail in his bid to be elected East Midlands mayor on Thursday, with Labour’s Claire Ward on course for victory.

Mr Bradley has been MP for Mansfield since 2017 and has led Nottinghamshire County Council for almost three years.

He is a well-known figure across the region but is coming up against a former Labour MP in Ms Ward, who is looking to return to frontline politics after losing her Watford seat in 2010.

The pair have been canvassing hard, knowing that this is very much a two-horse race for the mayoralty on May 2.

The new East Midlands mayor will be in charge of the region’s £36m devolution deal – a lofty position that could, in turn, fuel a winning candidate’s wider ambitions back in Westminster.

And bookmakers think Ms Ward edges Mr Bradley in the tussle for the East Midlands. This reflects a broad consensus across political betting sites that the other mayoral elections this spring will also back Labour.

East Midlands Mayor Betting

Voters across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire will select the very first East Midlands mayor on Thursday. 

A hustings back in February drew plenty of focus as only three candidates – Labour, the Conservatives, and independent Matthew Relf – attended.

That meeting set the narrative for this election, which has focused on regeneration of public services and housing. Here, we look at the candidates vying for the job.

Claire Ward – Labour

UK bookmakers were quick to price Ms Ward as the favourite when the market opened earlier this spring and her odds have fallen further to 1/8. 

The former Labour MP goes into the contest with a strong reputation after 13 years in government.

She’s been out of frontline politics for a while but argues her experience puts her ahead of Mr Bradley in suitability for the mayoralty.

She is not a shoo-in, though. The four councils that the East Midlands Combined Authority will represent offer a mix of Labour and Conservative majorities. 

Generally, urbanised areas of Nottingham and Derby support Labour, while the outskirts lean blue.

This is a first-past-the-post election and the likes of Matt Relf (Independent) could draw voters away from Ms Ward.

Ben Bradley – Conservative

Indeed, this race is far from over. Mr Bradley had the profile and the weight of Westminster behind him to run an effective campaign and now he will have to see if it pays off on election night. 

He has authority within Nottinghamshire County Council, is a well-known figure across the region, and is polling far better than the Tories nationwide.

Indeed, Mr Bradley is arguably performing miracles by only being priced as wide as 4/1 to win this race with new betting sites. Those odds carry a one-in-five chance of success, which is not insignificant here. 

The Conservatives, by contrast, are as wide as 14/1 to win the general election (6.7% probability).

Mr Bradley has a support network that dwarfs that of other Conservative candidates running for mayor elsewhere.

Helen Tamblyn-Saville – Liberal Democrats

At 50/1, betting apps evidently don’t think Helen Tamblyn-Saville has much chance of landing the mayoralty here. It’s the same story for the Liberal Democrats across the country. 

They are only making headway in constituencies and council districts where there is no Labour presence.

Ms Tamblyn-Saville has previously stood for the Lib Dems for the Bassetlaw parliamentary post. 

She pledges to improve transport in the region and build new, better-quality homes.

Best of the Rest

Alan Graves is carrying the flag for Reform UK in this election but looks unlikely to genuinely challenge Ms Ward or Mr Bradley for top spot.

Currently the mayor of Derby, Mr Graves began his political career in Labour stripes before defecting to a series of rebel groups. His pledge, should he win the mayoralty, is to abolish it.

Coral reckon Mr Graves has a 1.5% chance of winning here, at 66/1.

Matt Relf, meanwhile, is a councillor in Ashfield and argues he is the “only candidate who knows how to fix potholes”. 

He is certainly a local favourite but his influence doesn’t stretch far enough to impact this election, with the bookies pricing him at 100/1.