German Election Odds: Merz Tipped For Chancellor As Scholz Prepares For Exit

Betting sites believe Chancellor Olaf Scholz will lose the upcoming German federal election and hand over power to Union leader Friedrich Merz.

Scholz has brought forward the 2025 German election from October to February, after losing a confidence vote following the collapse of his coalition government.

Arguments over the budget less than 12 months before the next scheduled election, and a severe drop in Scholz’s popularity, meant opposition parties were always likely to turn on each other over the winter.

That split has come in time for Scholz to earmark a February 23 date – and politics betting sites have been quick to inflate their odds on his Social Democrats party winning power again.

Amazingly, it looks like the far-right Alternative for Deutschland party (AfD) is likely to claim more seats than the SPD next year, which could pave the way for a power-sharing agreement with the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

German Election - Most Seats Odds

German Election Betting Latest

The latest German election odds don’t make for good reading if you’re part of Scholz’s SPD party. 

The centre left party narrowly won the 2021 federal election and only secured power with support from the Greens and the FDP.

Now, though, the Bundestag’s make-up is likely to be very different.

The CDU/CSU are back, four years after Angela Merkel’s exit, and Merz looks nailed-on to be the next chancellor. William Hill price the CDU/CSU at 1/16 to win the most seats across the 733-seat Bundestag.

They are currently polling at around 30 points, with the SDP down at 18%. No wonder the bookies give CDU/CSU a 94.1% chance of claiming the most seats.

Interestingly, the AfD have grown from 10% support in 2021 to around 19% today. Their odds of 8/1 with Coral puts them as the most viable alternative to the CDU/CSU.

AfD have enjoyed some strong local election results in recent months but whether that translates into seats in the Bundestag remains to be seen.

As for Scholz’s SPD, they are now 14/1 (6.7% likelihood) to claim the most seats in February.

Who Will Win The German Election?

UK bookmakers think the German election is pretty much a done deal. Merz will be the next chancellor and lead the CDU/CSU to the most seats.

It’s unlikely he will get close to the 311 seats Merkel secured as chancellor back in 2013. However, it’s certainly likely that he will surpass the 206 seats Scholz’s SPD won in 2021.

Merz probably won’t land a majority, so he’ll need backing from another party to govern. 

That will almost certainly come from Alice Weidel’s AfD. The populist party has made great strides in recent months and is almost certain to improve on their 83 seats earned in 2021.

Combined, the CDU/CSU and AfD coalition could shut out all other parties from the government.

And yet, there’s no guarantee that the coalition would work. The CDU is largely against working with the AfD but might be willing to stomach the relationship in order to secure power.

Other options, such as the Greens or the left-wing populists BSW, appear out of the question. 

Too many bridges have been burned here, particularly with CSU leader Markus Söder’s outright refusal to work with the Greens.

It therefore might not be a cosy coalition with the AfD.

Another option could be for the CDU/CSU to work with the outgoing SPD to form an uneasy coalition and block the AfD. So far the likes of Reform UK and National Rally have been unable to secure national power in other major European economies – perhaps Germany will shut out the populists here too.