Horse Racing Tips: Tanya Stevenson's 3 Best Bets For Ascot On Saturday
It's Ascot this Saturday and there is plenty of excitement on horse racing betting sites as punters decide which horses to follow.
Good ground has meant a rethink of the selections this week as I had a whole host of possibilities, but the reduction of field sizes mean the tempo and dynamics of those contests change from what they were before declarations.
Trainer and jockey form will play a big part in my choices and I'll give the relevant explanations later.
I will actually be in attendance at Wetherby on Saturday, which was the first place I covered the betting ring on my own for Channel 4 back in 2001.
John McCririck was away on his working holiday at the Breeders Cup. It was a vibrant bustling market then with plenty of on-course bookmakers in attendance and I had my mini laptop in one hand with a dongle in the other, getting a better signal than WiFi provides today.
The sport is still archaic and backward, decades behind as it should be doing so much more. But it is at least great to see the likes of RaceiQ and the new horse race data provided by Attheraces. They shouldn’t be a revelation, they should have been the norm by now.
Plus there should be more interaction with yourselves, emails and so many other social media platforms should allow those that love the sport to be empowered, heard and embraced.
Instead for now though you are all on mute, it is presumed what is appreciated and needed rather than being asked, until that changes the sport is the weaker.
Wetherby 2001 saw victories for Sackville in the Charlie Hall Chase and Boss Doyle win his second West Yorkshire Hurdle. The Irish could win both again this year, but I’d prefer to work there in peace as the races go in the too difficult tray.
Although I like the looks of William Cody to go one better in the 13.15, as the race doesn’t look as strong as the 2023 running and Luccia could find the Mares Hurdle an ideal launchpad for the remainder of the season, but I don’t like picking out odds-on.
Despite being in Yorkshire on Saturday, the three selections I'm siding with all go at Ascot.
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Tanya Stevenson's Selections For Ascot On Saturday
- The Panel Selection 1: 12.55 Ascot - Don't Tell Su - 8/1 With Betfred
- The Panel Selection 2: 15:15 Ascot - Fire Flyer - 8/1 With Ladbrokes
- The Panel Selection 3: 15.45 Ascot - Neon Moon (Nap) - 9/1 With BetVictor
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 1: Ascot 12:55 - Don't Tell Su
There could be an upturn in form for the Paul Nicholls stable and as with all things, once a win goes in, the strike rate will become very hot.
From May to the end of August, Nicholls had 20 winners from 64 runners and four winners from 42 runners since. Though if you hone that down to the last two weeks then it is four from 21.
He may well be coming out of the bleak period and Don’t Tell Su is the stable representative in the first with the very able Freddie Gingell on board.
He is riding at a 22% strike rate for the whole season and his three pound allowance is a bonus. In seven races Don’t Tell Su has only ever been out of the first three once and that was on his debut in a bumper behind Bowenspark.
The last time we saw him he was very unfortunate, he was literally alongside the eventual winner Plaisir Des Flos three out when the leader fell and really badly hampered him, leaving too much ground to make up.
He is a big sort who I sense might be sent on turning for home, but much like a diesel car once the cruise control has kicked in he won't be coming back.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 2: Ascot 15:15 - Fire Flyer
The euphoria around the result of the Charlie Hall will just be subsiding ahead of the 15:15 and quotes for potential future targets will be flying around the ring I'm sure, yet I'll be concentrating hard on the fluctuations, if any, for the price of Fire Flyer.
It will be fascinating as, if any of the four runners before this race have run well or won, which I sense all have huge chances, the odds for both Fire Flyer and Afadil will plummet with betting apps.
In contrast if the preceding runners have run poorly, then they will obviously drift.
Those two horse are closely matched as they met in a novice hurdle last year where there was only a neck between them in Fire Flyer’s favour.
They equalled each other‘s stride turning for home and Harry Cobden cheekily let David Bass go on jumping the last, enabling him to sit in the slipstream and pounce again on the line.
Since then, Fire Flyer has run poorly and was even noted to have made a respiratory noise at Sandown in April. He has had a wind op since, and hopefully he will be back to his best as at the moment he is priced at each-way value.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 3: Ascot 15:45 - Neon Moon
This year's Sodexo Gold Cup looks fabulous, helped by the fact that the top weight is the very classy Chianti Classico, trained by Kim Bailey, who could lead as soon as the tapes go up and with his exuberant jumping and lengths gained at every fence just stay there.
It is generally a race that is run at a really quick tempo despite being over three miles and Bailey could have the first two as he also saddles last year's runner-up Two For Gold.
The tempo might suit a horse running through late and for that Neon Moon qualifies. He came from a fair way back to win his most recent run at Chepstow and showed for me that he is continuing to improve. The handicapper hasn’t been harsh, and he has a chance to be competitive again here.
David Pipe is enjoying a better season this year than last, his Remastered was a heart-warming winner at Wincanton on Sunday and won this race before back in 2010 with Massinis Maguire.
The association with Jack Tudor has gone into overdrive and the first season is always going to be tricky, it resulted in a 13% strike rate, all change as its up to 19%.
He was a capable hurdler and perhaps this is his opportunity to show he is a much better chaser.
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