Horse Racing Tips: Tanya Stevenson's 3 Bets - Cheltenham & Doncaster (Saturday)
Amazing to think despite the fact that Cheltenham takes centre stage on horse racing betting sites on Saturday, it's Aintree’s National fences which might well hold the answers to some really tricky puzzles.
It’s worth keeping an eye on Friday’s action in the respective races with King Turgeon (Cheltenham 13:50) and Latenightpass (Cheltenham 15:00).
I have watched the Becher Chase a few times now, and not only do I hold King Turgeon in high regard, it was a canny ride by Jack Tudor too.
However, that aside, I was trying to find some value in what appears to be an impossible December Gold Cup.
Considering he has won four of his last five races, I was trying to work out why Sure Touch was one of the outsiders.
Has his summer achievements been passed over? He won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen under a big weight, battling on bravely to head Soul Icon near the line.
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After a break of 112 days, his next run was in the Grand Sefton over the big obstacles.
He is diminutive in stature, but canny over his jumps. He likes to make his own mind up, rather than have his rider preempt him into a fence. This bore true at Aintree and Sean Bowen was brilliant on him.
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Tanya Stevenson's Selections For Saturday
- The Panel Selection 1: 13:50 Cheltenham - Sure Touch (E/W)
- The Panel Selection 2: 14:05 Doncaster - Charlie Uberalles (E/W)
- The Panel Selection 3: 14:25 Cheltenham - Libberty Hunter (Nap)
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 1: Cheltenham 13:50 - Sure Touch (E/W)
King Turgeon is a bundle of enthusiasm and one of the best jumpers this season based on his Chepstow and the Aintree run and win.
The tape went up at Aintree and by the time they had jumped the first, Sure Touch was at least 10 lengths behind.
Yet he went on to attack each fence with Bowen motionless and when they reached Canal Turn he’d lost more ground, and was 15 lengths behind Frero Banbou and King Turgeon.
There was a long way to go still and Bowen was still not urging him. As they crossed the Melling Road, Sure Touch had just two horses behind him and 10 in front - and he was still 15 lengths behind.
He ran on effortlessly to be fifth, beating Frero Banbou (who has since won the Rehearsal Chase) and in the end he was beaten by 13 lengths, which was about the distance he was behind after two fences.
I disagree that he didn’t take to the course, I thought he was excellent.
Now to read he has since had a wind op, suggests that he may have made a noise during the Aintree race and with hindsight it adds extra kudos to his efforts.
Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate with his chasers this season. He is going through a hot streak at present as well and Sure Touch is a big enough price that there is some each-way value.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 2: Doncaster 14:05 - Charlie Uberalles (E/W)
Doncaster has a fair card with a few races on ITV and I tap up an old friend at a big price in the 14:05.
Another tricky race where there is a rare old battle for favouritism between Forward Plan and Gaboriot, the latter is another to come out of the Grand Sefton.
Does He Know carried 12 stone in a quagmire at Donny to win the Great Yorkshire Chase, so there should be no question of his ability to do the same here.
Chasing Fire could and should have been plenty closer at Cheltenham last time out, but for a couple of untidy landings.
And as for Sail Away, I went to the 'last chance saloon' with him at Newbury last time and he was showing a glimpse of his old self only to fall four out.
But it's Charlie Uberalles for me. He is so much better off a low weight against superior rivals.
He is out of the handicap yet he has shown his liking for Doncaster.
In January, I tipped him each-way at 66-1 in the Great Yorkshire Chase, which was brilliantly ridden by Danny McMenamin.
He got him round and he actually looked like winning two out only to hit that fence. In the end he was beaten three-and-a-quarter lengths into third.
I went to the well again in the Grimthorpe, only for the ground to deteriorate and be really, really heavy.
He was in second place four out, but the deep going was too much. Sean Quinlan pulled him up in a race that ended up having only two finishers.
He ran a strange race at Carlisle on his penultimate start and he probably needed it at Kelso last time out.
It appeared as though he was uninterested halfway round, then as they approached the last three fences, urged along and under pressure he ran on really well over an inadequate distance.
Today it's back to three miles, with an in-form Danny McMenamin on board.
Dianne Sayer is having a great season, after having just two winners last season. In her last nine seasons, her best tally has been 15 and she’s on 12 already.
Tanya Stevenson Panel Tip 3: Cheltenham 14:25 - Libberty Hunter (Nap)
Back to Cheltenham to the final selection today. I was toying with Peaky Boy in 12:40 or each-way Similar Story on betting apps, which would be a bold call in the 13:13.
I have gone the common-sense route with Libberty Hunter as the nap in the 14:25.
The last time we saw him was at Aintree in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices Chase finishing third to Found A Fifty and Master Chewy.
He was badly crowded at the start, which had him at a disadvantage right from the off and ground was lost. Then for a two-mile race on the Mildmay course, they went along at a crawl initially.
Due to being hampered early, he had no choice but to race on the wide outside until he had a bit of cover at the cross fence.
It was then that a bit of pace was injected by Master Chewy and Found A Fifty, leaving Libberty Hunter flat-footed for a crucial couple of strides.
He had too much to do in between the second last and last.
It did give me the impression he was a Grade 1 performer. Connections and rider Harry Cobden should have gained much confidence from that run.
Cobden rode him in the Grand Annual too, where he just found Unexpected Party too hard to claw back.
He is a wonderful imposing individual who jumps so well.
He receives 10lb from Master Chewy who may have had a tough enough race before falling in the Tingle Creek last week.
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