Nat Coombs' NFL Week 11 Tips Including Falcons @ Broncos

Nat Coombs is an NFL writer & broadcaster who has been anchoring TV and radio coverage in the UK for over 15 years, working with a range of networks including BBC, TalkSPORT, FIVE, ESPN and Channel 4. 

He also hosts his own NFL podcast The Nat Coombs Show and writes a column for The Times. 

Nat has joined The Panel to share his three best selections for the weekend’s NFL action using the best prices from the leading NFL betting sites.

Nat Coombs' NFL Week 11 Predictions:

• Nat Coombs' Panel Pick 1: Dolphins & Raiders Over 43.5 Points - 10/11 With SpreadEx
• Nat Coombs' Panel Pick 2: Rams -3.5 To Beat The Patriots - 4/5 With Bet365
• Nat Coombs' Panel Pick 3: Broncos -2.5 To Beat The Falcons - 10/11 With Bet365

Raiders @ Dolphins Prediction: Miami To Keep Their Season Alive

It’s not just Ace Ventura that connects the Dolphins with Jim Carrey. Surveying the condensed chasing pack of teams that are in the Wild Card mix.

Miami are hanging on by their fingertips and as each week rolls up, as I scan the standings and schedules, I immediately conjure up Lloyd Christmas from Dumb & Dumber dropping “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” 

At 3-6 after a win on Monday Night Football against a dangerous Rams side, where the Dolphins defense stepped up to shut out Matthew Stafford and co from the end zone, sacking him times in the process, Miami have a chance.

However, the window is fast closing, and they can’t afford any more slip ups. With winnable games coming up in the next few weeks against the Patriots and the Jets, Miami could be rolling into December in or around .500 and very much game on. 

Or their season could be done and dusted on Sunday. The balance in the Dolphins offense since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s return is logical, but nevertheless, abundantly clear. 

Tua’s control is essential to the rhythm of Mike McDaniel’s offense and he’s rolled straight back into a composed, fluent passing mode, completing 73 of 94 passes for 672 yards, four touchdowns and one interception since his return. 

On the surface, the Raiders represent a pretty decent option for an opponent looking for some momentum. 

Unlike Miami, the Raiders offense has been trending in the wrong direction, hence the recent wholescale changes, with offensive co-ordinator Luke Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterback coach Rich Scangarello all surplus to requirements.

Scott Turner is now calling the offensive shots, and in classic nepo-NFL fashion, the Raiders have hired his dad, former Chargers head coach Norv Turner as senior adviser. Fresh faces, fresh gameplan. Kind of. 

Vegas aren’t changing their quarterback, at least to start the game and with Gardner Minshew one thing for certain - it’s gonna be a ride with wild touchdowns, erratic picks and plenty of moxie. 

The bye week, plus the offensive changes could jump start the Raiders offense and with Miami having their season on the line, against a defense that’s giving up almost 28 points per game, I think the Over at 43.5 on betting apps is appealing. 

Nat Coombs' Panel Tip 1: Dolphins & Raiders Over 43.5 Points - 10/11 With SpreadEx

Rams @ Patriots Odds: Rams To Bounce Back

My Drake Maye prop bet (under 200 passing yards) landed last week, but there’s no doubt he’s been one of the bright lights in an abject season for New England. 

Despite a relatively conservative outing, Maye steered his team to a 19-3 win over Chicago and the first overall pick Caleb Williams leading writers and broadcasters the world over to ask 'which rookie would you rather have going forwards?' 

It's way too early to tell of course, but what connects them, other than a first year in the league in struggling conditions, is the absence of a decent offensive line and in Maye’s and the Patriots case, it’s a huge concern. 

Rams rookie Jared Verse has had a solid first year and ranks in the Top 12 in all edge rushers in the NFL so he can exploit here. And the Rams offense, which failed to muster a touchdown in a disappointing outing at home to Miami, should course correct here. 

Nat Coombs' Panel Tip 2: Rams -3.5 To Beat The Patriots - 4/5 With Bet365

Falcons @ Broncos Betting: Nix To Lead Broncos To Win

In August, Sean Payton and the Broncos would have bitten your hand off if you’d said they’d be rolling into the second half of the season in playoff contention, with their rookie quarterback Bo Nix improving week on week. 

It was far from certain and most pre-season analysts had Denver pegged for a losing season for a team firmly “in development”. 

Nix has gone over 200 yards in five of his last six NFL starts in a promising first year and it’s by no means all controlled, dink and dunk work either. He has completed 18 of 20 on passes of 20 yards or more. (That ranks him third out of all eligible quarterbacks). 

Nix can also cut teams up with his legs, as he’s demonstrated most capably against the Chargers (61 yards from six carries) and the Saints (75 yards from 10 carries).

It helps that he has a strong line protecting him, PFF have Denver as the number two ranked in the NFL right now and all this bodes well for a Falcons defense that struggles to find any bite up front and is ranked 31st in pass rush. 

The Atlanta front is sturdier against the run, but this week’s hipster fantasy pick-up Audric Estime’s emergence, adding a one-two punch with Javonte Williams means this Denver offense will enable balance. 

Plus, plenty of time for Nix to work. And all behind a powerful Broncos defense that’s only allowing 17.7 points per game (fourth in the NFL) and is ranked in the top five for EPA per play allowed. 

Nat Coombs' Panel Tip 2: Broncos -2.5 To Beat The Falcons - 10/11 With Bet365

Other Betting Match-Ups To Consider:

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets:

There has been a scoreless quarter in each of the Colts' last two game as well as the last two games the Jets have played.

A scoreless quarter in the Colts/Jets game - 23/10 With Bet365

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins:

The Las Vegas Raiders have not led at half-time in their last eight games, while the Miami Dolphins have led at half-time in their last four games.

The Dolphins to lead at half-time - 5/13 With Bet365

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

The winning margin has been five points or fewer in the last six meetings between the Ravens and Steelers. Pittsburgh has won five of those games. 

Steelers to win by six points or fewer - 15/4 With Bet365

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions:

The Jaguars have scored a rushing touchdown in each of their last four games, while the Lions defense have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last four games.

Jaguars to score a rushing touchdown - Evens With Bet365

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers have scored in all four quarters in each of their last four games, while the Seahawks have conceded points in all four quarters in three of their last six games.

49ers to score points in all four quarters - 7/5 With Bet365

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers:

The Bengals have conceded 24+ points in each of their last three games, while the Chargers have scored 24+ points in each of their last three games. 

The Chargers to score over 23.5 points - 10/13 With Bet365