2023 Tour de France - A Stage 9 Sunday Showdown

This Tour de France has lived up to the hype so far. The three stages in Spain were full of incredible climbs and battles. Jonas Vingegaard delivered an early shot to Tadej Pogacar’s bow after Stage 5. Then, Pogacar brilliantly countered in a more measured way during Stage 6. 

While the two riders are 1-2 in the standings, there are still a lot of questions left unanswered as Stage 9 beckons early Sunday morning. Streaming services such as GCN+ and Peacock are available in the United States. Also, there is social media, via Twitter, where one can follow the action. 

Let’s run into some early sports betting projections. Then, we'll explain the early numbers in more detail.

• Jonas Vingegaard to Win at +125 
• Tadej Pogacar to Win at +175

We aim to have more on social media over the weekend. Monday is a rest day to gather the data and see what went right, wrong, and sideways.

This Tour de France Start Has Featured Drama

The last thing Team Jumbo Visma and UAE wanted to see was the drama that unfolded over the first week. It looked like Jumbo Visma was going for the knockout blow on Thursday, and then Tadej Pogcar delivered a counterstrike of his own. It is funny how the Tour de France works sometimes.

Can Tadej Pogacar sneak more seconds here and there? Absolutely. Will it be easy? Of course not. Right now, Jonas Vingegaard carries the best form. Does that carry into weeks two and three? Your guess is as good as mine there. 

Again, both top teams have their weaknesses and strengths. Pogacar is trying to ride a bit smarter of a race. The Slovenian knew he could not match Vingegaard during Stage 5. There was a tell-tale grimace or three that the wrist and body were feeling the effects of the weather.

Now, cyclists will be looking toward the Monday rest day with a hilly Stage 8 and, yes, Stage 9 on Sunday. This weekend will not be dull. 

Stage 9 And The Puy de Dome

Most of Stage 9 is pretty flat, and then the cyclists climb the remnants of a volcano. Did we just say that? Yes, we did. Everything but the last 13.3 kilometers features a little rolling of the terrain. There is a slight descent before the climb of the Puy de Dome. 

The average descent of the climb is 7.7%. Gee, that sounds alright. However, the last four kilometers (2.4 miles) looms at 11+%. Some parts of this climb go above 12%, including the final kick up to the top of the volcano err crater. 

Again, remember this climb goes more than 1,000 meters (approximately 3,250 feet) of vertical gain. That’s a lot! With that rest day, riders can attack this mountain with more aggression. Recovery will be easier, and Stage 10 looks to be a hilly romp more suited for a breakaway.

This will feel like the third reckoning of the tour already, with several yet to come. Below are those early projected numbers. 

The Contenders For Stage 9

Having the projection table here is always a nice thing. 

Below are the cycling betting odds for the winner of Stage 9 of the 2023 Tour de France.

* These are projections only

Some believe a breakaway has a shot here, but the climb is likely too long. If someone is going to win this stage, it is likely coming from the “General Classification” group. Some asked for a longer shot, American or Canadian. Sepp Kuss is working for Vingegaard, and the green light will likely not be given on this stage. The American would be at least a +3000 to +5000 at best.

Can Michael Woods (CAN) get in on a breakaway and then hold off the leaders? That form has not been seen from Woods during the first week and is not likely to surface on Sunday.

The setup for the second week offers the heightened potential for more chaos. Again, tactics always play a role along with the weather. Who blinks first? Who strikes at the right time? Those are two questions that must be asked. 

The Final Prognosis for Sunday's Stage of the Tour de France

Cycling is crazy as Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard remain a coin flip. What have we learned so far? Expect the unexpected.

The betting money can be hedged on both great riders, but leaning on Vingegaard for now may be wise. This Danish rider has the numbers from an attacking standpoint. While no one can count out Pogacar, that is the reality. Unless Wout van Aert and Sepp Kuss have an awful final climb, Vingegaard will have his set up. 

Finally, there will be head-to-head numbers for Stage 9 too. It will be a Sunday when no one cares about this day until the final few miles and kilometers. 

Good luck, and thanks for reading!