Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 1 Prediction & NFL Best Bets for 09/07

How to Watch Lions vs. Chiefs

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023
• Kick Off: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
• Where to Watch: NBC

The NFL Week 1 odds are heavily in favor of the Chiefs, with a spread of -4.5 and a moneyline of -222 via BetMGM. The over/under is set at a tantalizing 52.5, making this one of the NFL's best bets to place on the over/under.

The Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl-winning season, but they've had their share of issues. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who led the team with 15.5 sacks last season, is in a contract holdout. 

On the brighter side, WR Kadarius Toney is "good to go," adding speed to their offensive lineup. Last season, the Chiefs were only 6-10-1 against the spread (ATS), but they've historically performed well in season openers under coach Andy Reid, going 9-1 straight up. 

Key Players Missing: Travis Kelce (Questionable, Knee), Chris Jones (Holdout)

The Lions, led by QB Jared Goff, have been the underdogs in 37 of their last 42 games. However, they've been profitable for bettors, going 19-8-1 ATS when tagged as the underdog. 

They closed last season with an 8-2 run but had the league's worst-rated defense. Their first-round pick, Jameson Williams, is out due to a gambling suspension, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is back from an ankle injury.

Key Players Missing: Jameson Williams (Out, Suspension), Amon-Ra St. Brown (Active, Ankle)

While many will be tempted to bet on a Lions vs. Chiefs upset on Thursday Night Football, we believe that the defending Champs will pull it together and kick-off the new season with a W! 

Let's explore some interesting NFL betting trends and look at the NFL Week 1 Predictions and best Lions vs. Chiefs bets:
 

Betting Trends

• Chiefs: Have scored 30+ points in seven straight season-openers
• Lions: Have lost seven consecutive meetings with defending Super Bowl champions
• Over/Under: Chiefs' games went under seven times last year when O/U was 50+

⭐ NFL Pick 1: KC Chiefs -4.5 ATS (-110) at BetMGM

The Chiefs have been a powerhouse in season openers, especially under coach Andy Reid, boasting a 9-1 straight-up record. Patrick Mahomes has been a September sensation, throwing 18 TDs with zero INTs in the past five season openers. The Lions' defense, ranked last in the league last year, is unlikely to contain Mahomes and Co. The absence of Chris Jones may affect the Chiefs' pass rush, but their offensive firepower should more than compensate. Take the Chiefs to cover the -4.5 spread at BetMGM.

⭐ NFL Pick 2: Under 52.5 total points (-110) at Caesars

While both teams have offensive capabilities, the Under has been a profitable bet in Chiefs' games with an Over/Under of 50+ points, going Under seven times last season. The Lions have been underdogs in 37 of their last 42 games but have gone 19-8-1 ATS, indicating they can keep games close and low-scoring. Considering the Lions' defensive woes and the Chiefs' occasional struggles against the spread, the Under 52.5 at Caesars offers value.

⭐ NFL Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions' rookie RB, is expected to be a significant factor in the passing game. With a 4.36 speed and a high catch rate from his college days, Gibbs is poised for a breakout performance, especially if the Lions are playing catch-up. The Chiefs allowed 47.4 receiving yards to opposing running backs last year, and with Chris Jones likely out, Gibbs will have more opportunities to release on routes. Take the Over on Jahmyr Gibbs' 31.5 receiving yards at FanDuel.