NFL Player Props Week 4: NFL Predictions & Best NFL Picks This Weekend!

⭐ NFL Player Prop 1: Desmond Ridder Under 185.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

The Atlanta Falcons are 2-1 and could not get anything going last week. Desmond Ridder could not even get over 150 yards. Tyler Allgaier and Bijan Robinson had rough days against the Detroit Lions defense, of all things. Atlanta averaged 2.2 yards per carry in Week 3 and less than four years per pass attempt.

We like Ridder under 185.5 passing yards (-114) at FanDuel. He had only 134  yards passing on 38 attempts in the Week 3 loss to Detroit despite completing 21 passes versus the Lions. In seven games as a starter, he's thrown under 170 yards in four of those contests. 

Playing in London might boost his total a little but not enough to come close to 190 yards. The chances Ridder and Atlanta lean on their run game to slow the Jacksonville offense down is high. This gives us some value on Ridder's under-passing yardage prop once again.

⭐  Best Bet: Desmond Ridder Under 185.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

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⭐ NFL Player Prop 2: Calvin Ridley Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel

After a strong Week 1, where Calvin Ridley went over the 100-yard mark, he has taken his share of lumps the past two weeks literally. He combined for a mere 72 yards receiving in Weeks 2 and 3. The Jaguars receiver narrowly avoided injury twice last week against Detroit. 

However, this week is a revenge week of sorts against his former team, the Atlanta Falcons. He is familiar with their defense and their tendencies. The Jaguars are desperate to get Trevor Lawrence going, which should help Ridley on Sunday in London. Ridley over 66.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel is my NFL player prop for this game. 

⭐  Best Bet: Calvin Ridley Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel

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⭐ Josh Allen Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel 

It is not a secret that Josh Allen has sputtered a bit on offense this season for Buffalo. Considering the five passing touchdowns and four interceptions with several near miscues for a second. He is due for a hot performance. Enter the high-flying Miami Dolphins, who scored 70 points against Denver last week. 

Expecting a high-scoring game is not unreasonable, and Allen racked up 704 yards in two games against the Dolphins last year. The odds of -114 with FanDuel are enticing, especially when you factor in an expected regression offensive and that Miami tends to give up yards defensively.

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Josh Allen Over 268.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

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⭐ NFL Player Prop 1: C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel 

C.J. Stroud showed last week that he is more than capable of leading the way. He did not have to have his best passing effort of the season, but he did connect on the Over with 280 yards passing against Jacksonville. The good news is Stroud has not been below 240 yards in any game this season. 

We like C.J. Stroud over 235.5 passing yards (-114) at FanDuel. Stroud has already cleared this number in all three games, as we mentioned. Furthermore. The Texans’ quarterback is facing a defense that allowed nearly 300 yards passing to the Las Vegas Raiders at home last week. Houston gets some home cooking after a huge AFC South road win.  

Houston, even in a lopsided win, showed they are willing to pass the ball a little more than usual. There lies an aspect of the Texans’ passing attack that gets overlooked. They will utilize shorter passes at times, like a rushing attack. It helped open the field last week in Jacksonville as Stroud reached more than nine yards an attempt. If he reaches 30 passes again, expect the prop to deliver one more time.

⭐ Best Betting Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

⭐ CLICK HERE to bet on the Steelers vs. Texans game! ⭐ 

⭐ NFL Player Prop 2: Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions (-108) at Caesars

Tank Dell is a rookie who is not playing like a rookie. Despite a sluggish first week, he's grown into a bit of a go-to target for C.J. Stroud. With an average of 83.7 yards over the first three games of the season, betting on him to exceed 45.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel) in the upcoming game against the Steelers is not too unreasonable. 

How about the chances of four or more receptions? The odds of -108 at Caesars for Dell to record Over 3.5 receptions are enticing, particularly when considering the Steelers' status as road favorites, even despite their defense. Pittsburgh will give up passing yards, and Dell has 21 targets (15 catches) in three games. Dell’s speed and route running make him a likable choice.

⭐  Best Bet: Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions (-108) at Caesars

⭐ Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (-120) at Caesars 

Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson have left off from where they started last season. Jefferson led the NFL with over 1800 receiving yards. We should see more of the same when he takes on the Panthers’ poor secondary, so take the Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (-120) at Caesars. 

His catch-per-touchdown rate was 10.8 in 2021 and 16 last year. Jefferson is at 27 currently. He sits at +130 to go over 125 yards at FanDuel. After all, he leads the NFL with 458 yards receiving through three games. Jefferson might even hit the end zone more than once Sunday.

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (-120) at Caesars

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⭐ NFL Player Prop 1: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+108) at Caesars 

Through three games, Jalen Hurts has looked little like the All-Pro quarterback from last season. Despite that, Philadelphia is still 3-0 and faces a Washington Commanders team that has allowed 70 points on defense the past two weeks. Hurts liked playing the Commanders last year. He combined for five touchdowns in the two meetings with only one interception.

We like Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108) at Caesars. The yardage totals haven't been impressive for Hurts, who has been a bit up and down in the early going (44.2 QBR) and will now face a Washington defense that has started to regress after a staunch effort in Week 1 against Arizona. 

The more sneaky bet could be a Hurts anytime touchdown (running the ball). That prop comes in at -125, and he is averaging one rushing touchdown a game this year. Either way,  the expectation is for Hurts and the Philadelphia offense to enjoy a big afternoon at home in the sun. Warm weather in the mid-Atlantic will help scoring at the very least on Sunday. 

⭐ Best Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+108) at Caesars

⭐ CLICK HERE to bet on the Commanders vs. Eagles game! ⭐ 

⭐ NFL Player Prop 2: Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+170) at Caesars 

Part of the reason for Washington’s early 2-1 start lies with Brian Robinson. Nevermind the rise from adversity in 2022, Robinson has been a huge factor in the Commanders’ offense this season. He has 216 yards rushing and has improved with 4.6 yards per rush in 2023. One of the bigger surprises may be his catching ability out of the backfield. 

We like the Brian Robinson anytime touchdown (+170) at Caesars. He is averaging one touchdown a game this season, and Washington again is starting to use Robinson out of the backfield on screens and wheel routes. Robinson’s speed is a matchup nightmare for Philadelphia’s linebackers.  

Given how Washington fell behind last week, they will need to find ways to get Robinson the ball. Also, he did find the end zone in Philadelphia in 2022.  

⭐ Best Pick:Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+170) at Caesars

⭐ NFL Player Prop 1: Kenneth Walker Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars 

Kenneth Walker now has four touchdowns in three games in 2023. He managed 97 yards on 18 carries against the Carolina Panthers, and the Seahawks should be able to stay in this game against the New York Giants. The Seahawks were 1.5-point underdogs but are now 1-point favorites as of press time. 

We still like Walker Over 62.5 rushing yards (-115) at Caesars . The Giants' run defense has not been strong all season, and again they cannot get off the field (opponents have a 49% conversion rate on third down). The Giants have allowed 120 or more rushing yards each week, and teams have run the ball an average of 32.7 times per game.

Considering New York’s inability to make stops and Seattle’s penchant for wanting to run early, Walker could easily top 63 yards on Monday night.

⭐ Best Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars

⭐ CLICK HERE to bet on the Seahawks vs. Giants game! ⭐ 

⭐ NFL Player Prop 2: Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+133) at Caesars 

Daniel Jones is 1-11 in primetime. We get it too. The frustration is palpable, and if anyone watched that Thursday night game from Week 3, they probably wanted to throw the quarterback and the New York Giants under the bus. 

Despite his awful start, Jones did have that very good second half in Arizona (two passing touchdowns), and that gives us a little hope for our Monday night football prediction. Seattle leaves receivers open, and Jones will get a bit more time in the pocket compared to Week 3 in San Francisco.

Simply, Seattle has allowed five passing touchdowns and almost 1,000 passing yards. One may even want to look at the over on Jones's passing yards, as 230.5 is a pretty low bar, even at -117 on Caesars.  

⭐ Best Pick:Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+133) at Caesars