NFL Week 4 Betting Trends, Public Betting Picks & NFL Picks for Week 4

⭐ Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The upcoming Sunday Night Football brings the AFC showdown from MetLife Stadium in New York where the New York Jets host the Kansas City Chiefs as 9.5-point underdogs at BetMGM. At the moment, 91 percent of the money and 85 percent of bets are on the reigning Super Bowl champions, who just trounced the hapless Chicago Bears 41-10 in Week 3. 

The Jets’ offense has struggled a lot since Week 1 victory over the Buffalo Bills 22-16 and Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury. New York has only scored ten points in each of its previous two outings, losing at the Dallas Cowboys 30-10 and to the New England Patriots 15-10. The Jets have gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and 0-5 ATS in their previous five contests played on Sunday. 

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On the other side, the Chiefs have bounced back from Week 1 defeat to the Detroit Lions 21-20, surrendering just 19 points over the last couple of weeks. They look ready to shut down the lowly Jets, and Kansas City dismantled New York 35-9 in their last encounter on November 1, 2020. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, 5-1 ATS in their previous six tilts played in Week 4, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine dates with the Jets. Go grab the Chiefs -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM before the line moves. 

⭐ Best NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

⭐ Dolphins vs. Bills Over 53.5 Points (-110) at Caesars

The red-hot Miami Dolphins (3-0; 3-0 ATS) just dropped 70 points on the Denver Broncos while racking up a whopping 726 total yards, the second-most in a game in NFL history. The Phins opened their 2023 campaign with a 36-34 road victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. They slowed down a bit against the New England Patriots in Week 2 but eventually emerged victorious, 24-17. Last Sunday, they humiliated the Broncos 70-20 as 6-point favorites with a total of 47.5 points. 

The Buffalo Bills (2-1; 2-1 ATS), on the other side, kicked off the 2023 season with a 22-16 defeat at the New York Jets. Since then, the Bills have trounced the Las Vegas Raiders 38-10 and the Washington Commanders 37-3. Buffalo is now second in the NFL in points scored per game (30.3) right behind Miami (43.3), so one of my best NFL picks for Week 4 is Dolphins vs. Bills Over 53.5 Points (-110) at Caesars. The previous meeting between Miami and Buffalo saw 61 points on the scoreboard, as the Bills edged the Phins 32-29 at home, and the game flew over the 44.5-point line. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Trends:

• The total has gone over in 12 of the last 17 dates between Miami and Buffalo 
• The over is 6-2 in the Bills’ last eight home games 
• The over is 8-2 in the Dolphins’ last ten road contests 

⭐ Best NFL Pick: Dolphins vs. Bills Over 53.5 Points (-110) at Caesars

⭐ Seattle Seahawks +1.0 (-120) at bet365

Week 4 will close down with Monday Night Football from MetLife Stadium. The Seattle Seahawks head to New York to take on the Giants, who are slight 1-point favorites at bet365 at the moment. It’s another hot public spot with 84 percent of the money and 89 percent of bets on the Seahawks. 

Seattle has gone 2-1 SU and ATS thus far. After a heavy 30-13 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Seahawks have outlasted the Detroit Lions 37-31 in overtime and the Carolina Panthers 37-27. On the other side, the Giants (1-2; 0-3 ATS) have sandwiched a 31-28 road win against the Arizona Cardinals with a pair of losses at the San Francisco 49ers 30-12 and to the Dallas Cowboys 40-0. 

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The Giants missed Saquon Barkley (ankle) last week, and their superstar running back is questionable to play in Week 4. Anyway, New York’s defense looks like a much bigger issue. The Giants have recorded just a couple of sacks through the previous three weeks and own the second-worst sack percentage in the NFL (2.1%). Furthermore, they rank 29^th in rushing yards allowed (138.0 per game) and 26^th in yards gained per pass completion (11.5). 

The Seahawks’ defense hasn’t impressed either, yielding a staggering 328.0 passing yards per game (31^st in the NFL). But Seattle looks like a much better offensive team than New York at the moment. The Seahawks are posting 228.3 passing yards per game (13^th), whereas the Giants are tallying only 165.3 (28^th). Also, the Seahawks are racking up 104.3 rushing yards per contest (16^th). They just tortured Carolina for 146 yards on 33 carries, and Kenneth Walker III led the way with 18 totes for 97 yards and two touchdowns. 

Seahawks vs. Giants Betting Trends:

• Seattle is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games vs. Giants 
• The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last four road tilts vs. Giants 
• New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall
• The Giants are 0-7 SU in their last seven games played on Monday 

⭐ Best NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks +1.0 (-120) at bet365

⭐ AJ Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+137) at FanDuel

The Philadelphia Eagles are off to a perfect start, but AJ Brown is still searching for his first touchdown of the season. The Eagles host the Washington Commanders as firm 8-point favorites in Week 4, and the Commanders are allowing 33.3 FanDuel fantasy points per game to the opposing wide receivers. Washington has yielded four touchdowns through the air so far and each has been caught by a wideout. 

Brown didn’t have a three-game draught in 2022. He finished the previous season with 88 receptions, 1,496 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. His first TD of the 2022 season came against the Commanders in Week 3, so I’m backing Brown to score anytime this Sunday at +137 odds with FanDuel. 

Best NFL Pick: AJ Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+137) at FanDuel  

⭐ Best NFL Pick: AJ Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+137) at FanDuel