Tour de France: Vingegaard vs. Pogacar, Americans to Watch & More

This is going to be a Tour de France unlike previous ones. The 2023 edition of the Tour de France starts on Saturday, July 1. 

Cycling’s grand prize ends on the Champs Elysees on Sunday, July 23. The question comes down to who wins this year. Will it be Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard? Or will unexpected injuries and chaos turn the Tour upside down?

Let’s run some sports betting numbers for this year’s event. Then, we will get into those pesky details. 

• Jonas Vingegaard to Win at +110 on BetMGM Sportsbook with a Vingegaard-Pogacar parlay at +250
• Jai Hindley Podium is +200 at BetMGM Sportsbook
• Mathieu van der Poel to win Stage 1 at +480 at FanDuel Sportsbook
• van der Poel over Van Aert H2H at +105 for Stage 1 at FanDuel Sportsbook
• A German rider to finish in the Top 10 is +500 at BetMGM Sportsbook
• Team Classification - Team Movistar to win at +500 on FanDuel Sportsbook

We aim to have more on social media as the days and weeks go on. These are some early impressions and small wagers to consider while the getting is good.

This Tour de France Start Is Not Like The Others

The last thing Team Jumbo Visma and UAE wanted to see was this weekend's jaunt to the Bilbao part of Spain. The Basque country and the Pyrenees beckon the riders for the first week. There will be some unhappy riders with sore body parts after the first two stages. With 3,000+ meters of climbing, there is no prologue. The legs will be tested early.

Can Tadej Pogacar sneak some seconds on Jonas Vingegaard without going into the red zone too early? One big problem last year was that Pogacar did not have the form come the second week, as his UAE squad was too weak from a tactical standpoint. The Slovenian must be more intelligent, or the Dane will reign supreme again. 

There are plenty of questions about the Tour de France with some uneasy answers. Does Vingegaard have the same Jumbo Visma team as last year? That answer is not quite. They are a little weaker, while UAE is more decisive and resolute. Again, tactics play a crucial role. Picking spots to attack will be a different animal in this year’s tour. Plenty of areas exist, but riders can quickly fall apart if not careful.

Now, cyclists will be on edge as it seems they never go more than a few days without a potential “General Classification” shakeup. The organizers executed this by design. 

What American Riders Will Do Well at Tour de France?

The United States sent six riders to compete in the Tour de France this year. Although none expect to figure in the “General Classification,” the riders will impact some stages. Sepp Kuss is among the more surprising riders to compete in the Tour. Consider that the American was in the Giro and finished 14th and has had quite the schedule leading up to July.

It will be interesting to see what Kuss has in the tank later in the race as he tries to help Jonas Vingegaard repeat as champion. Matteo Jorgensen from Movistar is only 23 but can challenge for stages from breakaways. While GC hopes are in his future, Jorgensen is not there yet but getting closer. 

Neilson Powless finished 12th last year in the Tour de France but is not viewed as a top threat on his team. EF-Education almost had a rider in yellow early last year before Powless faded a bit. Now, Richard Carapaz and Rigoberto Uran are contenders from the team. Powless will attack for stages and breakaways.

Brandon McNulty (Team UAE) and Lawson Craddock (Team Jayco-AlUla) have some climbing ability and can spring into the breakaways. McNulty can win one of those Alps stages before the second rest day. Craddock could be one to watch in the Stage 16 time trial if his legs are there. 

Alps Or Pyrenees - What Is More Difficult? But Wait

The Pyrenees heats up things early, and Stage 6 is quite a monster. However, there is that 13,14 and 15 combination. That’s rough. Then, the Stage 16 time trial has an ugly Category 2 climb, which feels more like a 1. Col de la Loze looms for Stage 17, the highest part of the tour. The climb is the most confounding at over 2300 meters (7500+ feet). 

The one area where Jonas Vingegaard looks to have an advantage over almost any climber is his form. Right now, he has the best form over even Pogacar. Remember, the Slovenian is returning from a broken wrist suffered at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He was lucky, considering how bad the crash was. 

Again, remember the Puy de Dome, which has some of this tour's most complex and steepest miles. Then, there is Stage 20. The Vosges feel like a total GC trap with so many climbs, and Le Markstein could prove more pivotal than anyone expects. Did we mention the weather? Let’s pray this is nothing like the nightmares that plagued the early stages of the Giro. 

There will be many reckonings on this Tour. Unlike the last few years, a bettor could easily pick out some spots. Yes, pivot points exist, but surprises do, too. 

The Tour de France Table Of Contenders 

Having a solid table is the only way to serve up things properly. Here are some of the contenders and a few early sites on the board. 

Below are how the best sports betting apps  have the odds for a winner of the 2023 Tour de France. 

Once one gets outside the top two, the race reads like a who’s who of potential also-rans. Can Jai Hindley recapture his form from last year’s Giro? Everyone is waiting. Richard Carapaz went to a new team but could be hawking for stages by the end of the first week. Ineos does not have a dominant GC guy, and Martinez could fall by the wayside.

The time trial will not be quite the race of truth this year for Stage 16 but will set up Stage 17. Again, cyclists must quickly balance out their red zones with timing attacks. That third week packs quite a punch this year, especially early. Even Stage 20 is not easy by any means. 

It will be a 2023 Tour de France like no other. Expect plenty of crazy twists and turns and, yes, crashes! 

The Final Prognosis of the 2023 Tour de France

Cycling is the most challenging gauge, but Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard are a coin flip. What did the Slovenian learn from last year? What form is he in currently? No one knows until this Tour gets well into Week 1 and maybe even Week 2. 

The cycling betting money can be hedged on both great riders, but the lean is on Vingegaard. This Danish rider is raring to go and wants to show that Criterium du Dauphine was a fluke. May the best cyclist win.

Finally, remember that there are some head-to-head stage and overall wagers to examine too. Pay attention to changes in riders, as these will shift between now and the weekend. The goal is to wait longer for bets on the Young Rider, KOTM, Green Jersey (Points), and Team Classification. 

Good luck, and thanks for reading!