2021 Music City Bowl Betting

2020 was, by all accounts, a bad season for the Tennessee Volunteers. The team struggled to a 3–7 finish, after which head coach Jeremy Pruitt was fired. The Volunteers scored just 21.5 points per game last season, which ranked 109th nationally out of 128 teams.

New head coach Josh Heupel has engineered a turnaround in 2021 that’s seen Tennessee score 38.8 points—good for 21st nationally. The Vols have also racked up 459.0 yards per game, including 212.0 rushing yards. On defense, they give up 27.5 points per game and 404.6 yards.

A big catalyst for the offensive turnaround was an early quarterback switch from Joe Milton to Hendon Hooker. The latter has thrown for 2,567 yards, 26 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Hooker has also rushed for 561 yards and five TDs.

As for the regular season, Tennessee started with a mediocre 2–2 record. However, it hit its stride during conference play and went 5–3 the rest of the way. The team’s 7–5 overall record and 4–4 SEC mark secured a spot in the 2021 Music City Bowl. The Vols have now been to college football bowl games in two out of the last three seasons.

The Boilermakers have been highly successful with the passing game. QB Aidan O’Connell has passed for 3,178 yards, 23 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His favorite target, WR David Bell, has caught 93 balls for 1,286 yards and six TDs. This duo helped Purdue score 27.5 points per game and tally 340.5 passing yards during the regular season.

Defensively, the Boilermakers allow just 20.5 points and 194.6 passing yards per game. Safety Cam Allen leads the secondary with four interceptions on the year. Defensive end Kydran Jenkins has tallied the most sacks with five.

Purdue earned their spot in this bowl game via an 8–4 regular-season record. They finished with a solid 6–3 record against Big Ten teams. Purdues’ most-notable victories were over then-No. 2 Iowa (24–7) and then-No. 3 Michigan State (40–29). Outside of a 59–31 loss to Ohio State, the Boilermakers played reasonably close in its four losses.

Many US online sportsbooks began offering Music City Bowl odds shortly after the participants were announced on Dec. 5th. The majority of betting sites favored Tennessee with their opening college bowl games betting lines. As you’ll see in the following sections, though, the current Tennessee odds of winning aren’t overwhelming. On a side note, sportsbooks will be offering many in-play betting opportunities once this bowl game starts.

Music City Bowl Moneyline Odds

The moneyline is a simple bet on which team will win. In order to even out the action, though, a moneyline bet/betting handicaps the favorite and underdog. You can see the average moneyline for Tennessee vs Purdue below:

• Tennessee -190
• Purdue +160

As seen above, the Vols are the favorite here and 3–2 straight up (SU) in their last five games. However, the Boilermakers are 4–1 SU within the same span.

DraftKings is among the betting sites offering good value on Purdue at +160. BetMGM is currently featuring the best value on Tennessee at -182.

The Vols have captured one Music City victory, while Purdue will be making their second appearance in this game. You can see the winners of the last 10 Music City Bowls below:

The winners of this bowl game have been evenly dispersed so far. Louisville and Kentucky, however, have managed to win multiple Music City Bowls:

Earlier, we discussed advice for choosing betting sites with favorable odds. Now, we’ll look at specific bets that you should target when wagering on this game.

History Favors the Underdog Purdue

For whatever reason, the Music City Bowl is a hotbed for upsets when compared to other bowl games. Here are a few examples:

• 1999: Syracuse (+3) defeated Kentucky 20–13.
• 2002: Minnesota (+7) beat Arkansas 29–14.
• 2005: Virginia (+6) toppled Minnesota 34–31.
• 2006: Kentucky (+10) beat Clemson 28–20.
• 2008: Vanderbilt (+4) defeated Boston College 16–14.

These are just some instances of an underdog winning in Nashville. The history of this bowl game indicates that the Boilermakers may not be underdogs at all.

Purdue +4 Point Spread

When playing as the underdog, the Boilermakers are 11–4 ATS in their last 15 games. They also went 5–2 ATS in their last seven contests of the regular season. That said, we like Purdue’s spread (+4 at BetMGM) going into this matchup. Alternatively, you can currently take the -4.5 spread at PointsBet with just -105 juice.

Under 63.5

As highlighted earlier, Purdue and Tennessee combine for 66.3 points. Defensively, though, they’re collectively holding opponents to 48.5 points. If you split 66.3 and 48.5 down the middle, you’re looking at a 57.4 average point total. This number is nearly six points off the common totals line.

Tennessee -190

The Vols and Boilermakers are close on paper. That said, it feels difficult to take Tennessee at -190 (or -182 at BetMGM currently). But then again, this team has gone 5–0 straight up in their last five contests against Big Ten teams.