Australia v India Fifth Test: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• Australia ‘draw no bet’ - 1.57 @ Rajabets Sports
• Mitchell Starc under 4.5 match wickets - 2.1 @ Rajabets Sports
• Steve Smith over 80.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Friday 3 January, 10:30am AEDT (Australia) / 5:00am IST (India)

Where: The Gabba, Brisbane

Watch: Seven Network/7Plus, Fox Cricket/Kayo Sports (Australia) / Star Sports, Disney+ Hotstar (India)

Best Odds: Australia 1.90, India 3.00, Draw 5.00

Australia have brought to an end four consecutive 2-1 Test series losses to India after taking a 2-1 lead of their own with a commanding Boxing Day victory down in Melbourne.

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy comes to a conclusion this week at the Sydney Cricket Ground, where India can still retain the trophy by winning this match and closing the series out with a 2-2 result. 

Perhaps more importantly, India needs to win this game to maintain their slimming hopes of joining South Africa in the June 2025 World Test Championship final, whilst senior veterans like Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli will be desperate to preserve a positive legacy in their twilight years. 

High chances of rain on day five means that cricket betting sites have wound the price of the draw in to just 4/1 (5.0), which offers great value for any punter who believes one team can win the match within four days.

After a successful 2024 with our cricket betting previews, we’ll be out to take our own strong form into 2025 with three of our best Australia v India 5th Test bets. Good luck!

The Numbers That Matter

• Six of the last ten Sydney Tests were drawn (Australia won the other four)
• They all had first innings scores of over 300 runs
• Mitchell Starc at the SCG: 44 wickets from nine Tests at 44.17
• Jasprit Bumrah to Usman Khawaja in this series: 5-32 from 17.5 overs
• Pat Cummins has figures of 4-11 against Rohit Sharma in this series

Buying insurance against the rain

There’s also a slight chance of a shower on the morning of the opening day, which worst case scenario could result in a few hours of the so-called frustrating ‘mizzle’ that prevents play from restarting. 

Head curator Adam Lewis also spoke during the week of leaving just 7mm of grass on the surface before rolling the ‘colour out of it’, which could produce a slow and flat deck that is conducive to big partnerships. 

Australia have been on the up throughout the series since losing in Perth whilst the touring bowling attack have been getting increasingly fatigued, needing more than 200 overs to bowl their hosts out twice in Melbourne last week. 

One of the shrewd options that bettors can use to take the weather out of the equation is the ‘draw no bet’ market, which is offered by most of the best Indian betting sites these days. 

It gives players shorter odds than the 3-way market but the peace and mind of a refund if the match is drawn, and with Australia undefeated in Sydney since the 2010/11 Ashes, this could be a great way of reducing the risk that comes with the unpredictability of the skies above. 

Prediction: Australia ‘draw no bet’ - 1.57 @ Rajabets Sports

Sore Starc to fizzle out meekly

Australian wicketkeeper Alex Carey committed Mitchell Starc to play the fifth Test on his behalf in a pre-match press conference, responding to reports that the 34-year-old fast bowler went for scans and faces a fitness test. 

His numbers have been poor throughout the majority of the last month, with his eight-wicket haul with the pink ball in Adelaide the only time he has taken more than three in a match during this series. 

With that in mind, it’s remarkable that Bet365 players are loading up on Starc to clear 4.5 wickets knowing that he was struggling just to be fit for this contest. 

If he does play, it’s also likely he’ll have some of his workload handed to debuting all-rounder Beau Webster, who has in part been selected so that he can fill the ‘fifth bowler’ role that Mitchell Marsh was unable to. 

That therefore means fewer wicket-taking opportunities for the veteran, who averages 44 with the ball at his home ground in Sydney having taken over 4.5 match wickets in only one of his nine Sydney Tests (v India in 2015). 

Prediction: Mitchell Starc under 4.5 match wickets - 2.1 @ Rajabets Sports

At least one New South Welshman will prosper

Steve Smith has rediscovered some of his best form with first innings centuries at both The Gabba and the MCG and will seek out to close out the series at one of his other favourite Test venues. 

Smith averages 70 at the SCG, second only to his average of 77 at the MCG, and that’s despite only two not outs from his 17 innings which includes 11 scores of 50+ runs. 

He would have to produce one of his worst Sydney Tests to fall under the 76.5 run mark set by cricket betting apps, scoring at least 80 runs in eight of the ten SCG Tests in which he batted at least once. 

Rather than going for Steve Smith to score over 76.5 runs at the same price of 1.83, we’re instead looking to the player performance market, which awards Smith one point per run and ten per catch. 

Smith has taken some excellent slips catches off both pace and seam bowling in this series and averaged two catches per Test in 2024, which would add 20 points to his ‘player performance’ score alone. 

He could therefore clear the mark of 80.5 points with two catches and just 61 runs, which is already below his Sydney batting average. 

Prediction: Steve Smith over 80.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports