India v Bangladesh First Test: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Bangladesh predictions: 

• Taskin Ahmed over 2.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• R Ashwin over 5.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Najmul Hossain Shanto under 50.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Thursday 19 August, 9:30am IST

Where: MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai

Watch: Sports 18, JioCinema

Best Odds: India 1.08, Draw 8.00, Bangladesh 13.00

Bangladesh’s historic clean sweep of Pakistan in Rawalpindi just weeks ago threw some intrigue into what will be just their fourth away Test in India and first in five years. 

The prior three all saw them suffer some enormous losing margins and cricket betting sites around the world are expecting a similar one-sided affair, with India at unbackable odds to win this match and five days of hot Chennai sun making a draw near-impossible.

We’ve therefore delved into the many player markets offered by one of our favourite Indian betting apps and found what we believe to be three high value India v Bangladesh best bets. 

The Numbers That Matter

• Bangladesh have never beaten India in Test cricket (D2 L11)
• India won 40 of 52 home Tests (D8 L4) since last losing a home series
• Mushfiqur Rahim averages 199 against Ravindra Jadeja across all formats
• Virat Kohli scored 25+ in only three of nine innings v Bangladesh (2x 100s)

Fast bowlers could be in play

India have opted to roll out a red soil pitch in Chennai to counter the black soil surfaces that Bangladesh’s batters and bowlers are used to, and preliminary reports are suggesting it could be an enjoyable one for fast bowlers for the first day or two and perhaps even produce some reverse swing.

That’s at least until the heat will dry all of the life out of it, so we’re looking to Bangladesh’s best new ball bowler to take advantage of conditions to improve upon a very poor record against India’s top five. 

He’ll likely be putting in quite a few overs as the spearhead of the fast bowling attack and has a 50% success rate of taking 3+ wickets in a Test, doing so in six different countries including India in 2017. 

Off the back of consecutive four-wicket hauls in Dhaka and Rawalpindi, we’re expecting him to keep the ball rolling with at least three this week. 

Prediction: Taskin Ahmed over 2.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Consistently dominant on home soil

Playing his first Test as a 38-year-old in what could be his final home season, Ravichandran Ashwin could hardly think of a better place to kick things off than his city of birth.

Ashwin is making a rare Test appearance at the MA Chidambaram Stadium but would have wonderful memories of previous matches here, taking 3+ wickets in six of his eight Test innings in Chennai.

That comes to an average of 7.5 wickets per match, and across the country he has exceeded the 5.5 wicket mark set by Indian betting sites in 14 of his last 17 home Tests. 

He’s got plenty of pedigree on seam-friendly pitches such as an average of 28 in England, so even if the black soil surface was to favour the quicks in the first half of the match, he’s still got the skills to outsmart this Bangladesh batting lineup. 

Prediction: R Ashwin over 5.5 match wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Struggling captain facing significant challenges

Since scoring 37 and 105 in an historic 150-run home win over New Zealand on Test captaincy debut, Najmul Hossain Shanto appeared destined for huge things, especially considering the way he performed immensely as ODI skipper.

But since then, it has been the slimmest of pickings for Shanto, even despite the recent success of his team as a whole.

Shanto’s five subsequent Tests in charge of the team returned just 114 runs from nine innings - an average of less than 13 - which if replicated wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 50.5 run mark set by cricket betting sites. 

Nor would his brief history against India that saw him dismissed for fewer than 25 runs in three of his four H2H innings, all of which were within the comforts of home soil. 

Prediction: Najmul Hossain Shanto under 50.5 match runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports