India v Sri Lanka First T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Sri Lanka predictions: 

• Sri Lanka highest opening partnership - 2.37 @ Rajabets Sports
• Shubman Gill under 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Wanindu Hasaranga over 1.5 wickets - 2.62 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Saturday 27 July, 7:00pm IST

Where: Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, Pallekele

Watch: Sony Ten Sports, SonyLIV

Best Odds: India 1.30, Sri Lanka 3.50

For many cricket fans in India, the recent five-game series in Zimbabwe might as well have not existed. 

It was described by some as a tour by an ‘A’ team with a fill-in coach, a fill-in captain, wearing old shirts that were missing a gold star to signal their recent title, and against an opposition that could not even qualify for a 20-team T20 World Cup. 

But it has in parts shaped the beginning of India’s title defence, with Yashasvi Jaiswal and Shubman Gill cementing themselves as India’s new opening partnership, whilst Ravi Bishnoi overtook Yuzvendra Chahal to be Kuldeep Yadav’s new understudy. 

With a vastly different squad to the one that last toured Sri Lanka in this format, India will be making their first T20I visit to Sri Lanka since July 2021. 

The hosts will certainly be hoping this one pans out the same way as the previous, which they won 2-1 after defeating India on consecutive days, though they too have had a lot of turnover in the three years since.

Cricket betting sites have graded India as very warm favourites to win both the opening match and the series itself, so we’ve looked to the various other markets offered by new betting sites in India to find our three best bets for the first T20I in Pallekele. 

The Numbers That Matter

• The average run rate in Pallekele T20Is is 8.35rpo (167 runs per 20 overs)
• Suryakumar Yadav made 56 and 100 v South Africa in his last T20I series as a captain
• Mohammed Siraj averages 50.60 with the ball in Asia T20Is, with best figures of 1-22 from six appearances
• Dilshan Madushanka averages 63 v Shubman Gill and 51 v Suryakumar Yadav in ODIs and T20Is

Sri Lanka’s openers back in comfortable territory

Sri Lanka often found themselves losing powerplay wickets in all three of their games at the recent T20 World Cup, but selectors have backed incumbent openers Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis to continue carrying them forward to 2026.

The country’s last six opening stands were all away from home, and with a top score of 21 and average of less than ten, the openers often found themselves broken up almost as quickly as they got out there.

But it’s worth noting that earlier this year at home to Afghanistan, arguably the best bowling attack of the 2024 T20 World Cup, Nissanka and Mendis recorded partnerships of 64 and 45 in Dambulla as well as 67 against Zimbabwe at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo.

They average a healthy 28.48 as a partnership from 31 innings, 29 of them as openers, and at home that average climbs into the low 30s. 

India’s new partnership of Jaiswal and Gill went big twice, against Zimbabwe, but found themselves recording opening stands of fewer than 15 runs in the other three games.

It’s certainly worth taking them on at a good price here.

Prediction: Sri Lanka highest opening partnership - 2.37 @ Rajabets Sports

The opening spot is his - but can it make it his own?

A series-best 170 runs, albeit at a strike rate of just 125, confirmed what most people already anticipated: that Shubman Gill will be one of the two men to fill the void left by the retirements of Rohit and Virat.

Abhishek Sharma is breathing down his neck, so there will be intense and unrelenting pressure on Shubman to find the scoring consistency that has eluded him at T20I level over a 19-game career.

Back-to-back half-centuries against Zimbabwe earlier this month was the first time in that 19-innings stretch that he scored 25+ runs on successive occasions, amongst a ledger of scores littered with ten single digit efforts.

Two of those ten were at home to Sri Lanka in January 2023, so considering he was also guilty of a bit of inconsistency in the 2024 IPL, the 26.5 run mark set by Indian betting sites for this away match looks excessive.

Prediction: Shubman Gill under 26.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Speaking of consistency…

…former Sri Lankan T20I captain Wanindu Hasaranga, who stood down from the role after their disastrous T20 World Cup, is on a four-game streak of taking exactly two wickets in T20I cricket.

There’s enough to suggest that 2.62 are excellent odds for Hasaranga to extend that run to five games, such as five multiple wicket hauls at the recent Lanka Premier League.

Hasaranga also has a 50% success rate when it comes to taking 2+ wickets in T20Is in which he bowls at least four overs, which is almost certain unless one team is bowled out for a paltry amount given his seniority in an injury-hit bowling attack.

Also in his favour is an average of 18 balls and 24 runs per wicket taken in T20Is against the sextet of Gill, Samson, SKY, Rishabh, Hardik and Axar, which should serve him well in a home series. 

Prediction: Wanindu Hasaranga over 1.5 wickets - 2.62 @ Rajabets Sports