India v Sri Lanka Third T20I: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Sri Lanka predictions: 

• Suryakumar Yadav 30+ runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Arshdeep Singh over 1.5 wickets - 1.9 @ Rajabets Sports
• M. Theekshana under 20.5 PP points - 1.57 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Tuesday 30 July, 7:00pm IST

Where: Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, Pallekele

Watch: Sony Ten Sports, SonyLIV

Best Odds: India 1.36, Sri Lanka 3.20

The newly crowned T20 world champions did everything that was expected of them on their tour of Sri Lanka so far, including back-to-back wins on the weekend to reduce this third and final game in Pallekele to a so-called ‘dead rubber’. 

In doing so, they have further improved a near-perfect record in bilateral T20I series to 16 series wins from 19 attempts since their previous visit to Sri Lanka back in 2021. 

Nothing further illustrates the present depth in Indian white ball cricket than 16 victories from 17 games in 2024, despite fielding 29 different players along the way - enough for almost three full teams!

Perhaps pricing in the chance of India treating this game as a dead one, the tourists’ win odds are actually slightly larger on New betting sites in India than they were for the opening game of the series, presenting potential value for players. 

We have selected three ‘player props’ from one of our favourite new cricket betting sites that we believe will contribute to a 3-0 clean sweep for India. 

The Numbers That Matter

• The average run rate in the last ten Pallekele T20Is is 8.99 (180 runs per 20 overs)
• Charith Asalanka cleared 20+ runs in only one of six home innings this year
• Mohammed Siraj averages 30 balls and 50 runs per wicket in Asian T20Is
• Wanindu Hasaranga to Sanju Samson in T20Is: 3-2 from 11 balls

Leading from the front

India’s new T20I captain has illustrated in three separate series now why he was selected ahead of Hardik Pandya to lead the side into the 2026 T20 World Cup title defence and beyond.

Sunday’s win in Pallekele was his ninth T20I inning in charge of the team, and whilst he fell narrowly short (26) of the 30+ runs we are backing him to make on one of our favourite Indian cricket betting apps, ‘SKY’ still has a 55% success rate of clearing 30+ runs as T20I captain.

In addition, he now boasts 338 runs from his seven T20I innings against Sri Lanka, with Sunday’s score of 26 his second worst against them. 

Add to that a T20I average of 42 against the six bowling options that Sri Lanka selected in the previous game, and it all points towards another impactful score.

Prediction: Suryakumar Yadav 30+ runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Arshdeep the attested asset

Another consistent Indian performer key to their success right throughout 2024 has been left-arm opening bowler Arshdeep Singh.

Arshdeep has been an enormous weapon in the Indian arsenal this year as an adept bowler both at the front and back end of the innings, demonstrated in this series when he dismissed Kusal Mendis twice as well as Charith Asalanka and Wanindu Hasaranga during Sri Lanka’s collapses.

Some Indian cricket betting sites such as Rajabet Sports were offering a near-even money price for another multiple wicket haul for Arshdeep, which is excellent value given he has done so in 75% of his 12 T20Is this year. 

Prediction: Arshdeep Singh over 1.5 wickets - 1.9 @ Rajabets Sports

Theekshana continues to struggle

He had the first say in India’s shortened run chase by bowling Sanju Samson with a surprise slider, but Maheesh Theekshana has been short of the match--winning performances we came to know and love at the start of his career.

Perhaps better known for his economy rate than his wicket-taking prowess, there’s still a great wagering opportunity to bet on Theekshana to produce yet another zero or one in the wickets column. 

Theekshana collected 0-1 wickets in each of his last 20 T20Is against fellow 2024 T20 World Cup nations, which is effectively his last 23 games excluding the three at home to Zimbabwe earlier this year. 

That’s a compelling sample size over an extensive period, which is why he’s such short odds with betting sites in India for another 0-1 wicket return.

Instead of the low-price option of backing him to take fewer than 1.5 wickets, we’re seeking extra value through the ‘player performance’ markets, which award players one point per run scored, ten for each catch and 20 per wicket. 

Even with that taken into account, Theekshana scored greater than 20 points in only one of his last eight T20Is dating back to the tour of Bangladesh, which is a sufficient sample size to follow this trend. 

Prediction: Maheesh Theekshana under 20.5 PP points - 1.57 @ Rajabets Sports