India v Sri Lanka First ODI: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Sri Lanka predictions: 

• Shubman Gill over 34.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Mohammed Siraj over 1.5 wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabet Sports
• Charith Asalanka over 20.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Friday 2 August, 2:30pm IST

Where: R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo

Watch: Sony Ten Sports, SonyLIV

Best Odds: India 1.2, Sri Lanka 4.5

It was only fitting, given the manner in which they snatched the 2024 T20 World Cup final from a seemingly unwinnable position, that India rescued themselves with the ball in all three of their T20I victories against Sri Lanka late last month.

Having just begun a new era in one format, their attention now turns to February’s Champions Trophy in Pakistan, a title they last collected in 2013.

Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, who bowed out of the T20I format after the World Cup, are back to feature in the six ODIs India have between now and that tournament, three of which are in quick succession at Colombo’s R. Premadasa Stadium. 

Their return as well as the 3-0 clean sweep in the other white ball format last week means that India’s price with cricket betting sites is even shorter than it was for the T20Is. 

We must be feeling in a generous mood heading into the weekend, because we’ve picked out three players to exceed the main over/under mark set of them by our favourite betting sites in India, including some new leaders amongst both teams.

The Numbers That Matter

• 20 ODIs in Colombo since 2021 produced an overall batting average of 28.66 and run rate of 5.27rpo
• Rohit and Shubman averaged 52 as an opening pair at the last World Cup
• Wanindu Hasaranga v India in ODIs: four wickets from 60 overs at 78.50
• Dilshan Madushanka to Rohit Sharma in 2023: 2-12 from 2.1 overs

India’s ‘Gilliant’ new vice-captain

He has now earned his stripes as an IPL captain and a stand-in skipper for the T20I team, and Shubman Gill appears to be swiftly moving towards succeeding Rohit Sharma as the ODI captain as soon as the end of the 2025 Champions Trophy.

Gill recently secured his place as India’s T20I opener with a pair of 30s against Sri Lanka and now returns to his favoured format, where he has become renowned as an outstanding innings builder with an average of 50 balls faced and 51 runs scored per innings irrespective of whether he was dismissed. 

Those are perhaps more important numbers from a wagering perspective than his career batting average of 61.37, since Indian cricket betting apps will pay out on the number of runs made regardless of whether a batter is out or not! 

On a similar note, Gill also averages a stunning 57 runs per innings against Sri Lanka as well as 50 per start in Sri Lanka, which includes a century and a half-century at the 2023 Asia Cup (albeit against Bangladesh and Pakistan, not Sri Lanka). 

They even pale in comparison to his ODI numbers against likely Sri Lankan bowlers Madushanka, Theekshana, Pathirana and Hasaranga, which in this format equate to combined figures of 92/1.

Not only has he acclimatised to conditions with the T20Is in Pallekele, Gill even averages 64 runs per innings (again, whether out or not out) in the opening match of a bilateral ODI series, so he evidently doesn’t need any more time to settle in for a big score.

Prediction: Shubman Gill over 34.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

Siraj to skittle the Sri Lankans

Mohammed Siraj returns to the site of his finest ever ODI performance both by numbers and importance: 6-21 at the R. Premadasa Stadium to help knock Sri Lanka over for just 50 in last year’s Asia Cup final.

Sri Lanka are by far Siraj’s favourite opposition in ODIs when it comes to personal success, with his outstanding 19 wickets from six matches coming even in spite of bowling just 41.4 of a possible 60 overs across those six appearances.

Only once has he failed to take 2+ wickets in an ODI against Sri Lanka - 1-17 five days before the Asia Cup final when spinners Kuldeep and Jadeja dominated proceedings - and the odds offered by new Indian bookmakers for him to do it again are compelling. 

Against our predicted Sri Lankan top seven for the first ODI (Avishka, Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Samarawickrama, Asalanka, Liyanage, Hasaranga), Siraj’s personal numbers are even better - a frankly ridiculous 12 wickets for 54 runs, including 3-18 against Avishka and 4-9 to Kusal Mendis.

Readers who are feeling a little more ambitious and risky than us can do worse than to back Siraj to take 3+ wickets with their bookmaker of choice, especially as he’ll be the senior strike bowler in the absence of Bumrah, but we will defer to the conservative and safe option. 

Prediction: Mohammed Siraj over 1.5 wickets - 1.83 @ Rajabet Sports

Home leadership to also come to the fore

Having recently overseen the 3-0 T20I defeat, Charith Asalanka was favoured by the board to take the ODI captaincy over from Kusal Mendis, perhaps because of Asalanka’s incredible form in the format that is likely to see him remain a stalwart of the batting order for years to come.

Asalanka should have fond memories of both the venue and opposition, with his debut home series in ODIs coming against India at the R. Premadasa Stadium.

In that series, he cleared the modest 20.5 run over/under mark set for him by Indian cricket bookmakers for this particular game on all three occasions (with 38, 65 and 24).

He has come a long way since then, and none of the Indian bowlers picked in their ODI squad have a head-to-head dominance over him that gives us any reason to doubt he’ll bounce back from a poor T20I series with the bat, particularly as he is returning to a favoured format like Shubman Gill. 

Prediction: Charith Asalanka over 20.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports