India v Sri Lanka Second ODI: Expert Predictions & Analysis

India v Sri Lanka predictions: 

• India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports
• Avishka Fernando under 21.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports
• Kusal Mendis under 24.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

When: Sunday 4 August, 2:30pm IST

Where: R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo

Watch: Sony Ten Sports, SonyLIV

Best Odds: India 1.28, Sri Lanka 3.75

Just days after their T20I team clawed back to win the clutch moments and prompt three successive Sri Lanka batting collapses, India's ODI side suffered a similar fate to tie the opening game at the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo.

Some algorithmic predictors rated India a 90% chance of winning the match both at the 40 and 45 over marks of the run chase, but new Sri Lanka skipper Charith Asalanka was the hero with the ball by instigating successive LBWs to bowl the India side out with the scores level on 230.

The absence of a Super Over in bilateral ODIs means that cricket betting sites paid half returns on both teams, making it a still profitable investment for those who backed Sri Lanka to win at 4.5!

It was a night to forget for readers of our regular India cricket betting previews but we'll continue backing the statistical analysis that has served us well over the course of 2024 and bounce back strongly!

The Numbers That Matter

• India won nine of their last 11 ODIs against Sri Lanka in Colombo
• Sri Lanka are unbeaten at home in ODIs (W5 T1 NR1) since the last Asia Cup
• Kuldeep Yadav to Charith Asalanka in ODIs: 3-56 from 13.2 overs
• Akila Dananjaya to KL Rahul in ODIs: 3-10 from 17 balls

If it’s not one, it’s the other…

…we were hopeful of Pathum Nissanka and Avishka Fernando replicating one of their two enormous opening partnerships at home to Afghanistan from earlier in the year, but Avishka ultimately found the going tough against a swinging new ball in Colombo.

That was Sri Lanka’s fifth consecutive opening stand against India in ODIs to be broken up for a single digit score, four of which involved Nissanka whilst Avishka was in two.

Nissanka has been unstoppable against all opponents in this format in 2024 but Avishka has ultimately struggled against India in recent times, scoring no more than 20 runs in any of his four H2H ODI innings since the start of 2023.

India’s opening pair, on the other hand, piled on 75 runs in 12 overs against a vastly inexperienced Sri Lanka bowling attack, most of which came off the bat of returning captain Rohit.

They picked up precisely where they left off at the World Cup, recording a 50+ run opening partnership for the 15th time from 24 attempts.

That’s an incredible conversion rate of nearly two-thirds, and on that basis the odds of 1.66 for India to register the higher opening partnership with Indian cricket betting apps appears to be outstanding value. 

Prediction: India highest opening partnership - 1.66 @ Rajabets Sports

If Sri Lanka’s opening partnership fails…

…it’ll probably be because of another low score from Avishka Fernando who, after his very soft dismissal slicing Mohammed Siraj to third man on Friday, has cleared the 21.5 run mark set by betting sites in India on just three of eight occasions in ODIs against India. 

Couple that with 81 runs from six H2H T20I innings and Avishka has a combined white ball average of 20.5 runs against India, with his five starts since 2023 returning a meagre total of 28 runs.

Avishka’s score of just 1 on Friday afternoon continued a horror run at the R. Premadasa Stadium for the Sri Lankan opener, where he has been dismissed for a score of 10 or less in six consecutive ODIs against South Africa, Zimbabwe and now India. 

To exceed the 21.5 run over/under on this occasion, he’s going to have to get past his long-time nemesis Mohammed Siraj, who boasts head-to-head figures of 4-18 from just 4.5 overs bowled to Avishka.

Prediction: Avishka Fernando under 21.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports

We’re also expecting little from…

…Sri Lanka wicketkeeper Kusal Mendis, whose already mediocre ODI average against India dropped even further to just 18.00 from 13 innings when he suffered the dishonour of being Shivam Dube’s inaugural ODI wicket.

Mendis had an outstanding start to the 2023 World Cup but quickly fell away on drier pitches in Lucknow and Mumbai and has now been dismissed by seam bowling in each of his last five ODIs against India. 

In fact, since the 89 he made against India at The Oval in the 2017 Champions Trophy, Mendis’ best score in this H2H matchup is just 36. 

There’s not one single member of India’s bowling attack from Friday he has had the better of in ODIs, with that bowling unit sending down a combined 13.2 overs to Mendis for embarrassing figures of 7-35 - an average of 5!

That includes 4-11 for Siraj, who we expect to bowl to Kusal Mendis in the powerplay again, whilst Axar and Kuldeep have also dismissed Mendis once each alongside Dube. 

Prediction: Kusal Mendis under 24.5 runs - 1.83 @ Rajabets Sports