India vs Australia First T20I: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• India to win - 1.9 @ Parimatch
• Axar Patel under 31.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Parimatch
• Matthew Wade under 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch

When: Thursday 23 November, 7:00pm IST (12:30am AEDT)

Where: ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam

Watch: Sports18, JioCinema (Fox Cricket in Australia)

Best Odds: India 1.95, Australia 1.95

There could be no better illustration of the state of modern international cricket than a bilateral T20 series commencing just four days after an exhausting 50-over World Cup in India. 

Perhaps it’s for the best for the Indian cricketing public that they can quickly move on from the heartbreaking World Cup final loss to Australia on Sunday, though the incessant sight of the yellow kits on their television sets won’t make things any easier.

As was to be expected, both teams have named vastly different (weaker) squads to the ones that just took part in the World Cup, which makes the series wonderfully fascinating from a betting perspective.

India’s squad has only two World Cup participants (stand-in captain Suryakumar Yadav and wicketkeeper-opener Ishan Kishan) for the first three matches, whilst the Australians have retained Travis Head, Steve Smith, Josh Inglis, Sean Abbott, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis and Adam Zampa.

It’s expected that the Australians will be giving their World Cup cabal plenty of rest along the way, though like the hosts they will also have one eye on the 2024 T20 World Cup, which is just several months away.

On the quantity of unknowns leading into the opening match, cricket betting sites almost cannot separate the two teams for the opening match in Vizag, which gives you fantastic value if you manage to pick the winning side! 

We’ll delve into why we think the host nation will land the first blow in this five-game series as well as explore some potential player props that should get this new series off to a profitable start.

The Numbers That Matter

• India won their previous home bilateral series against Australia 2-1 (Sept 2022) 
• Axar Patel’s three IPL games in Vizag: 4 runs at 1.33, 3 wickets at 45.00 (8.44rpo)
• Suryakumar Yadav in home T20Is: 760 runs from 20 innings at 47.50 (10.20rpo)
• Jason Behrendorff in India: 6 wickets from 11 overs at 9.83 (5.36rpo)

Mental and physical freshness will be an advantage

They all had the option of following some of their teammates home, just as David Warner opted to do earlier this week despite initially being selected for this series. 

But it’s still hard to imagine multi-format Australian players such as Smith and Head being able to give 100% to this series particularly when five Tests at home follow almost immediately after.

Adam Zampa summed it up himself when he acknowledged this series with undisguised sarcasm in an interview with a popular cricket podcast, leaving nobody second guessing about his opinion of the timing of this series.

Make no mistake about it, the squad that will take place is still immensely talented. But without the prize of a World Cup trophy as a motivation, India’s home ground advantage should carry much more weight this time around.

The Indian squad is almost identical to the one that won gold at the Asian Games a couple of months back, which ran alongside the ODI Asia Cup, and thus despite giving the impression of being a disjointed selection of fringe players, they’ve already spent some time around one another and produced some on-field success.

Prediction: India to win - 1.9 @ Parimatch

Will Axar be the answer?

After he missed the World Cup with a quadricep injury, left-arm spinning all-rounder Axar Patel should be one player who is especially motivated for this series as he looks to shore up a place in T20 World Cup considerations.

He was the Player of the Series when these sides met in September last year with combined figures of 8-63 from the ten overs he bowled, but since then has been tremendously underwhelming. 

He was second in the run-scoring and wicket-taking charts for the Delhi Capitals this year, with his averages of 28 and 30 respectively underlining just what a poor year the franchise had.

Last September’s series should be enough to ensure the Australians treat his bowling with a great deal of respect, but his mark of 31.5 points in ‘Player Performance’ markets appears a bit generous based on more recent form.

Axar failed to clear 31.5 points in 13 of his 16 T20Is since last meeting Australia, with just two 2+ wicket hauls and a only three scores of 20+ runs (31*, 65, 21* all at home to Sri Lanka).

If he continues to bat at numbers six or seven, even in this second-choice lineup, he may need to pick up a couple of wickets to record at least 32 points (1 per run, 20 per wicket, 10 per catch).

Prediction: Axar Patel under 31.5 PP points - 1.83 @ Parimatch

Wadey on the way out?

The 35-year-old wicketkeeper took the 2021 T20 World Cup by storm as a powerful finisher with a series of performances that earned him a surprise IPL contract with the Gujarat Titans in 2022. 

But he was unable to go on with it and found the going at that level a bit too tough, clearing the 22.5 run mark that cricket betting apps have set for him in just two of ten innings with a top score of 35 against Rajasthan.

His last 12 months have left a lot to be desired as far as white ball cricket is concerned, with a batting average of just 19.50 in the 2023 Hundred and two scores of 25 and 21 for Tasmania in the Marsh Cup this season his only taste of limited overs cricket recently.

Wade’s only full series as a T20I captain came in the lead-up to that 2021 T20 World Cup, where he recorded scores of 13, 4, 1, 2 and 22 against Bangladesh!

Indian conditions are certainly much more familiar to him, but the bowling attack won’t be easy. We’re expecting him to have a tough time given he hasn’t shown much strong form.

Prediction: Matthew Wade under 22.5 runs - 1.83 @ Parimatch