India vs Australia ODI World Cup : Latest Odds & Analysis

India v Australia predictions: 

• Australia to win - 2.3 @ Parimatch
• Mitch Marsh Australia top scorer - 4.33 @ Parimatch
• Ravichandran Ashwin India best bowler - 4.5 @ Parimatch

When: Sunday 8 October, 2:00pm IST

Where: M. A. Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.67, Australia 2.32

India’s Cricket World Cup preparations were rocked on Friday morning local time by the explosive development that star batter and the man with the most powerplay runs (486 at an average of 162.00, 5.94rpo) and overall runs (1230 at 72.35, 6.30rpo) of ODIs in 2023, Shubman Gill, was struck down with dengue fever after landing in Chennai.

It’s a virus with which some people present serious symptoms and others none, so Gill’s condition at time of publication was not entirely known and was planned to be monitored daily ahead of Sunday’s fixture.

This will be the seventh ODI between these sides in India this year alone, and with the teams sharing the previous six 3-3, it promises to be a fascinating arm wrestle between two giants of the Cricket World Cup.

We’ll be bringing you our best cricket predictions for all of India’s games throughout the event as well as the best offers available on Indian betting sites to take advantage of throughout the 2023 World Cup.

The Numbers That Matter

• India has a 3-3 ODI record at Chepauk since the 2011 World Cup
• Rohit Sharma has a best score of just 36 from six ODI innings in Chennai (average 23.33)
• Pat Cummins took 2/103 from 18 overs in the recent ODI tour of India
• Ravindra Jadeja was CSK’s leading wicket-taker at Chepauk this year (11 from 27 overs)

Australia to spoil the party

We already thought Australia’s price of 2.3 on Friday was outstanding value before the news of Gill’s potential omission, and it might not last long if it becomes confirmed closer to game day that Gill will indeed not take part in this match.

As well as being on an even keel with India throughout the six bilateral ODIs this year, the Australians boast a tremendous wealth of IPL experience around the country, particularly at Chepauk where their anticipated XI for this match boasts more than 30 IPL caps combined.

That’s in addition to the form of Mitchell Marsh (294 runs from six innings) and David Warner (184 runs from four) in ODIs in India played earlier this year, whilst there’s just something about World Cups that brings out the best of Mitchell Starc (49 World Cup wickets at 14.81) wherever he goes.

This match appears to us to be much closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest, which makes Australia’s price at time of publication quite appealing. It will shorten a fraction if Gill is ruled out, and even further during the match if Australia make a strong start, in which case you can make use of your knowledge of back and lay betting to minimise your risk.

Prediction: Australia to win - 2.3 @ Parimatch

‘Marshing’ on to glory

He spent several frustrating years on the fringes of the national team setup, being unfairly outcasted by some sections of fans, but now Mitchell Marsh is a key cog of the team across all three formats, from his Player of the Match effort in the 2021 T20 World Cup final to a surprise Ashes century at Headingley and a 71 against South Africa as ODI captain.

He appears to not only absorb but relish the pressure that comes with the big stage, and whilst four of his five returns in the South Africa ODI tour left a lot to be desired, he accumulated more runs than any other player from either side across the six ODIs in India between these two sides.

Much of his career arc in recent years has been about redemption, and one unfulfilled narrative includes the 31 runs he managed from three innings at a home ODI World Cup in 2015.

Against the Indian quintet of Bumrah, Siraj, Kuldeep, Ashwin and Jadeja, Marsh averages an exceptional 102.5 in ODIs at 6.9 runs per over, so on that basis it would not surprise to see him dominate this bowling attack.

Prediction: Mitch Marsh Australia top scorer - 4.33 @ Parimatch

Ashwin magic will light up Chepauk

He hasn’t played an ODI in Chennai in more than ten years, but the IPL’s leading wicket-taker at Chepauk (48 at an average of 19.71) surely sees R Ashwin force his way into India’s first XI on a turning track.

The 37-year-old was drafted into the squad to replace the injured Axar Patel, who himself would have been considered an option to accompany Kuldeep and Jadeja on India’s spinning pitches even if not for any other match.

He picked up 3-41 in his final appearance of the recent ODI series against Australia and his excellent records against David Warner, Glenn Maxwell and Marnus Labuschagne, as well as his humiliating domination of Alex Carey in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy earlier this year, opens the door for a few wickets to be taken. 

His career economy rate of 4.94rpo can also come in handy for ‘best bowler’ markets as many cricket betting sites will pay out bets on the bowler with the lowest economy rate in case of a tie for most wickets. 

Prediction: Ravichandran Ashwin India best bowler - 4.5 @ Parimatch