India vs New Zealand ODI World Cup: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v New Zealand predictions: 

• New Zealand to win - 2.76 @ Parimatch
• Matt Henry to take 2+ wickets - 2.5 @ Bet365
• India to win toss and match - 2.62 @ Parimatch

When: Sunday 22 October, 2:00pm IST

Where: HPCA Stadium, Dharamsala

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.44, New Zealand 2.88

By the end of this weekend, only one nation will remain undefeated at the 2023 Cricket World Cup. 

A rematch of the famous two-day semi-final in the 2019 edition could be the first of two meetings between these sides, who both before and during this tournament are expected to be amongst the semi-finalists in a month’s time.

India has swept aside all before them in a frankly ruthless manner, including two other nations (Pakistan and Australia) who were amongst the title contenders at the beginning of the World Cup.

Their record in Dharamsala hasn’t been the best, whilst they have had the luxury of chasing in all four matches so far, both of which add intrigue to this very important fixture between the two best nations of the Cup so far.

Cricket betting sites have graded India as very warm favourites yet again nine months after they defeated a second-string New Zealand 3-0 at home in this format, but we’re suspecting New Zealand has once again been grossly underrated by bookmakers.

The Numbers That Matter

• India has a 12-3 ODI record at home to New Zealand since 2010
• The average run rate in Dharamsala is 5.14rpo
• Mitchell Santner against India’s top five in ODIs: 5-429 from 80.5 overs
• Virat Kohli’s last two Dharamsala ODIs: 127 v WI, 85* v NZ

New Zealand’s price too good to refuse

The Blackcaps’ 3-0 loss on tour of India early this year shouldn’t heavily weigh upon your considerations as their squad featured second string names like Shipley, Duffy, Tickner, Allen and Nicholls.

Albeit against some easier opposition, they’re almost matching if not exceeding their hosts in some key performance indicators such as scoring and economy rates as well as wickets taken and lost. 

The absence of Hardik Pandya for this match opens up a vulnerability whereby India will either be down one fast bowler (if they opt for Ashwin) or one batter (if they go with Shami and promote Shardul to seven), and whilst India are deserving favourites, we believe their price is a little flattering when comparing these sides.

An alternate play could be to back the ‘match line’, a new market we have not yet touched on in our 2023 World Cup previews.

Similarly to a spread/handicap in other sports such as football and basketball, you can take a 1.9 price for New Zealand to either win the match, or lose by a margin of either less than 5.5 wickets or less than 29.5 runs. 

For a reduced price, it may be worth taking out an insurance policy such as this, as the Blackcaps should be putting in a very competitive performance if not a winning one.

Value pick: New Zealand +5.5 wickets/+29.5 runs - 1.9 @ Bet365

Could humble Henry humiliate his hosts?

It takes quite an effort to keep a class bowler like Tim Southee running the drinks for four consecutive matches, but that’s just what strike seamer Matt Henry has done with nine wickets in his four outings so far.

He has picked up 2+ wickets in three of those games, and bowled only five overs in the exception (against Afghanistan).

A much longer shift is likely here, and he’ll be taking one of the two new balls on a pitch that has in this tournament offered something early for the fast bowlers. 

Henry now averages two wickets per ODI in India, 1.67 per game against India across all venues, and 1.71 per innings in all ODIs since the start of 2022. 

On those numbers alone, 2.5 is a nice price for another multiple wicket haul, especially with conditions likely to reward his accuracy and movement off the pitch. 

It’s a much safer bet than backing him to return the team’s best figures, as he has quite a bit of competition now especially with Mitch Santner taking more wickets than usual at this tournament.

Prediction: Matt Henry to take 2+ wickets - 2.5 @ Bet365

Shreyas the showman loves this matchup

The World Cup has so far seen Shreyas Iyer deliver some mixed returns, with best scores of 53no and 25no sandwiched by failures against Bangladesh and Australia.

But there’s quite a lot that falls in his favour ahead of this particular matchup and has us keen to back him in for a significant contribution.

There’s no opponent like New Zealand that seems to get Shreyas firing in this format: his worst score against the Blackcaps in ODIs is 49 (average 69.20), and all five of his H2H innings took place across two separate tours of New Zealand.

You can combine that not only with an ODI average of 51 on home soil where he clears 28+ runs on 63% of occasions, but Shreyas registered scores of 73* and 74* in his two most recent outings in Dharamsala, both T20Is against Sri Lanka.

Opposition, tick. Venue, tick. Recent form, good enough.  

Prediction: India to win toss and match - 2.62 @ Parimatch