India vs South Africa ODI World Cup: Latest Odds & Analysis

Date IconLast Updated: 3 Nov 2023
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India vs South Africa ODI World Cup: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v South Africa predictions: 

When: Sunday 5 November, 2:00pm IST

Where: Eden Gardens, Kolkata

Watch: Star Sports, Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.57, South Africa 2.5

The two standout nations of the 2023 Cricket World Cup will meet in what could be a precursor to this month’s final in Ahmedabad!

Given the rude shocks that befell the previously highly touted England and New Zealand throughout this tournament, it’s still too early to declare South Africa a likely finalist, but they do currently appear the most likely challenger to India’s undefeated record.

The only thing for certain at this stage is that the host nation will be participating in one of the two semi-finals in a couple of weeks. The only thing left to determine is their opposition.

Cricket betting sites have graded India as a strong favourite once again, with their outright title odds also shrinking as the tournament wears on.


The Numbers That Matter

  • India’s eight ODIs at home to South Africa since the 2011 WC were shared 4-4
  • Five of the last six ODIs in Kolkata were won batting first
  • Temba Bavuma averages 19.83 in India (six innings, best: 35).
  • Kagiso Rabada to Rohit Sharma in ODIs and T20Is since 2018: 6-96 at 4.84rpo

All good things must come to an end!

That’s no reason in itself to believe that this is the moment that India slips up, but given South Africa’s love of batting first, they appear best placed to give the Indians their most difficult run chase yet.

Currently, India has not had to run down more than 275, which is quite humble by the standards of this tournament where the average run rate was 5.8rpo heading into Friday’s game.

South Africa are scoring at a blistering 6.92rpo despite some conservative powerplay starts, powering their way through the middle overs at 6.31rpo before coming home in the final ten at a T20-like rate of 11.14rpo. 

They have long shrugged off the mishap of losing to the Netherlands and appear to be an immensely confident team with an enviable depth in their bowling lineup.

Tabraiz Shamsi’s four-wicket haul has sparked Keshav Maharaj back into form, whilst Marco Jansen has been the world class bowling all-rounder they have been searching for across many years now. 

That’s not to say India aren’t blessed with the same kind of assets, as their 66 wickets at a tournament best economy rate of 4.63rpo illustrates, but this should be their biggest test yet of whether complacency can begin to set in after some easy wins.

South Africa’s odds with cricket betting apps seem quite generous given the run scoring they have been capable of and the confidence that is flowing through the squad. 

Prediction: South Africa to win - 2.5 @ Parimatch

Rohit romping through the ride to glory

Despite his failure against Sri Lanka, Rohit Sharma continues to stamp his authority as one of India’s finest World Cup players of all-time, top scoring for the nation in three of their first seven games of this tournament.

With seven centuries and a further five fifties from his 24 World Cup innings - an incredible rate of one 50+ score every two innings - he returns to the site of his unforgettable ODI record of 264, plundered against Sri Lanka nine years ago.

His most recent visit (17 against Sri Lanka in January this year) was not so memorable, but as well as an IPL century and three fifties in Kolkata, Rohit boasts some handy numbers against many of South Africa’s bowlers such as an ODI average of 33 against Kagiso Rabada and 50 against Keshav Maharaj in all formats.

He’s always amongst the favourites to top score for India, as is every opening batter with his kind of record.

He was on the wrong end of one of the balls of the tournament from Dilshan Madushanka and would be tremendously unlucky to get another one early in his knock on Sunday! 

Prediction: Rohit Sharma India Top Scorer - 3.75 @ Parimatch

Kuldeep Yadav

One thing that has separated the genuine contenders from the remaining nations at this World Cup has been the presence of a threatening wicket-taking spinner.

It comes as no coincidence that the teams of Adam Zampa, Tabraiz Shamsi/Keshav Maharaj and Kuldeep Yadav are amongst the best performing at this tournament, such is the value of a high quality spin bowler at a World Cup anywhere let alone India.

Kuldeep has been consistent without being explosive so far at the tournament, collecting two wicket hauls on four occasions and single wickets in two other matches.

After a day off (or almost) against Sri Lanka, he should get his full ten overs in here with venue and opposition numbers in his favour.

Kuldeep picked three wickets in both of his ODIs at Eden Gardens, another three in his only T20I in Kolkata (3-13 v West Indies), and has amassed 24 from ten ODIs against South Africa, the most recent of which saw him collect the Player of the Match award for 4-18 in Delhi last year.

Prediction: Kuldeep Yadav India Best Bowler - 4.5 @ Parimatch