Punjab v Chennai IPL Best Bets

Punjab v Chennai predictions: 

• Punjab to win - 2.1 @ Melbet Sports
• Ruturaj Gaikwad 30+ runs - 1.83 @ Melbet Sports
• Jonny Bairstow over 27.5 runs - 1.83 @ Melbet Sports

When: Sunday 5 May, 2:30pm IST

Where: HPCA Stadium, Dharamsala

Watch: Star Sports and JioCinema

Best Odds: Punjab 2.1, Chennai 1.8

Just one win separated second from sixth place in the 2024 Indian Premier League after 50 matches, which will add great tension to many of the remaining 20 fixtures. 

As part of our ongoing coverage of the 2024 IPL, we’ll be taking a look at some of the crunch matches on the run home and bring you some of the best predictions and markets from our favourite cricket betting apps.

The outright winner market has been turned on its head over the course of April, with Indian cricket bookmakers favouring Mumbai, Gujarat and Chennai to win the title at the start of the tournament and placing Rajasthan and Kolkata near the bottom of the pecking order.

Just three days after Punjab Kings earned a fifth consecutive win over Chennai, the teams have been able to focus entirely on how to overcome their faults in that game for the reverse leg in Dharamsala, which will act as Punjab’s “home” venue for two matches.

The Numbers That Matter

• The average first innings IPL score in Dharamsala is 180
• The average opening partnership against Punjab in 2024 is 45
• Daryl Mitchell struck 130 for New Zealand against India in a 2023 World Cup game in Dharamsala
• Punjab’s Rilee Rossouw made 82 for Delhi in Dharamsala last season
• Arshdeep Singh returned Punjab’s best figures three times in 2024

Chennai’s revenge will have to wait another year

Chennai Super Kings still came out of the previous match with the IPL’s most economical bowling unit, going for 8.7 runs per over across the season, but that could collapse dramatically over the coming week if their worst case scenario is realised.

Whilst they’ve had time to plan for it, Mustafizur Rahman is now officially out of the season and heading for international duty against Zimbabwe.

Tushar Deshpande, one of their most miserly bowlers of the campaign, was ruled out of the previous game with flu and is no guarantee to return here given the quick turnaround.

Sri Lankan pair Matheesha Pathirana and Maheesh Theekshana had to return to Sri Lanka to process their USA visas for the upcoming T20 World Cup, and whilst that’s not a lengthy or physically demanding process, it could potentially impact their readiness.

Add to that the admission from head coach Stephen Fleming that Deepak Chahar’s injury “doesn’t look good” and Chennai’s bowling stocks could be potentially decimated.

That further adds to the already great difficulty of winning away from home after losing three of their four away games so far this year, against an opposition that comprehensively beat them this week.

Punjab look to be humming, scoring at 11rpo across their last two matches, with key players like Jonny Bairstow and Shashank Singh beginning to blossom at the right time of year.

Prediction: Punjab to win - 2.1 @ Melbet Sports

Gaikwad gleefully marching on

Whilst they’ve been short on runs from the likes of Rachin Ravindra, Moeen Ali and Ajinkya Rahane, new captain Ruturaj Gaikwad is punching runs out with ease after a couple of false starts earlier in the season.

Gaikwad has recorded a century and four fifties across his last six innings, top scoring for the team on five separate occasions.

Whilst the majority of those wonderful innings took place at Chepauk, there was a glittering 69 in the win in Mumbai, and he now comes into this match averaging 40 against the bowlers that Punjab used on Monday.

Whilst the venue has changed, the form overall is too good to ignore. 

Rather than the high risk option of backing him to top score again, where the price is now remarkably low for a ‘high bat’ market, we’re taking the safer option of him clearing another 30+ score. 

Prediction: Ruturaj Gaikwad 30+ runs - 1.83 @ Melbet Sports

Backing Bairstow’s brilliance

Following five failures in his first six outings, Punjab opener Jonny Bairstow has finally rediscovered his mojo, and the team is benefiting enormously. 

He’s known for being heavily influenced by his own confidence, going through extensive ruts that bring his entire career into question and equally lengthy periods of flourishing in which he looks capable of dominating anyone.

Bairstow and Rossouw gave the run chase all the momentum it needed with five consecutive 10+ runs in the first half, getting on top of five different bowlers along the way.

In a similar manner to Gaikwad, he too averages 44 against the bowlers Chennai used in the last game minus Mustafizur and Chahar.

Fittingly, Bairstow’s last appearance in Dharamsala was also encouraging as far as this play is concerned: he made 52 in an ODI World Cup game against Bangladesh on the day when Dawid Malan outshone him with 140. 

Prediction: Jonny Bairstow over 27.5 runs - 1.83 @ Melbet Sports