T20 World Cup India v USA: Latest Odds & Analysis

India v USA predictions: 

• Rishabh Pant over 1.5 fours - 1.57 @ 22Bet Sports
• Aaron Jones over 13.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports
• Hardik Pandya over 1.5 wickets - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

When: Wednesday 12 June, 8:00pm IST

Where: Nassau County International Stadium, New York

Watch: Star Sports and Disney+ Hotstar

Best Odds: India 1.08, USA 11

There was nothing at all easy about it in either innings, but some of India’s stars rallied when it mattered most against an opposition down on confidence and currently uncertain about how to win.

India took their record against archrivals Pakistan to 7-1 at T20 World Cups and now face what cricket betting sites have marked as potentially one of the most lopsided contests of the competition, though the USA have shown at this event they’re not to be messed around with.

Best of all, regular readers of our T20 World Cup best bets blog would have returned another profit following Haris Rauf’s haul of 3-21 against India, making it two from two so far for followers during this tournament.

India remain the overwhelming tournament favourites with all betting sites in India and are expected to cruise through to the Super 8s off the back of wins over USA and Canada, and could even earn themselves the opportunity to rest some players against Canada should they win this.

The Numbers That Matter

• The average run rate in New York before Canada-Pakistan was 5.75rpo
• India v all associates, Ireland and Afghanistan in T20Is: W21 L0
• Jasprit Bumrah at his last two T20 World Cups: 12-115 at 4.48rpo 
• Andries Gous and Monank Patel have three 50s each in 2024

Higher, higher - Pant’s on fire! 

Rishabh Pant had batted at number three or higher in only 11 of his 56 T20I innings prior to this World Cup but has used his lengthy time away from the game to reinvent himself as an explosive number three, with great effect.

He’s already got 78 runs to his name at this tournament as well as a 53 against Bangladesh during their only practice match at the infamous New York venue, where most other players including his colleagues Virat Kohli and Suryakumar Yadav have struggled for runs. 

Rather than taking the fairly risky price of 2.2 offered by many cricket betting apps for Pant to score 30+ runs for a third straight time, we believe there is a safer return to be had in backing him to find the boundary at least twice.

The odds offered equal an implied probability of nearly 64% in a 100% market, and Rishabh has cleared the over 1.5 fours mark in 20 of 33 T20I innings since the start of 2021, or 61% of the time. 

When accounting for bookmaker juice in a player prop market that is usually 1.83 each way, 1.57 comes off as pretty good value, especially as he’s more even likely to score boundaries freely off some of the USA bowlers. 

Prediction: Rishabh Pant over 1.5 fours - 1.57 @ 22Bet Sports

Keeping up with the Jones

With the form that American top order batter Aaron Jones is in at this World Cup, Indian betting sites have set him quite a low over/under mark particularly when considering that the New York pitches have begun to settle down a fraction in the last week, even if scoring is still slow.

He has 130 runs to his name without being dismissed at this tournament - 94* against Canada and 36* against Pakistan - and should have plenty of time at the crease to construct another innings if the Indian powerplay bowlers do their job.

The only thing not working in his favour is that this will be his first look at the New York pitch after two matches in Dallas, but the team had time between matches to train on the practice pitches leading up to this game. 

He needed only ten and 11 balls to clear the 13.5 runs that betting apps have set for him in his previous two games, so this could be a particularly quick victory for followers of our blog.

Prediction: Aaron Jones over 13.5 runs - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports

Hard-ik lengths key to the New York pitches

India heads into their third T20 World Cup game in New York with joint-leading wicket-takers and there’s a much better price available for one of them to record another multiple wicket haul.

Jasprit Bumrah and Hardik Pandya claimed five wickets each from seven and eight overs respectively, albeit with Hardik’s wickets coming at a much higher average (10.2) and economy rate (6.37rpo) thanks to having conceded three sixes along the way.

Hardik Pandya’s so-called ‘hard lengths’ have been a constant issue on these surfaces owing to their variable pace and bounce, and against an American side that have vowed to continue batting fearlessly against their toughest ever opponents, his bowling could be a handful once again.

He has been bowling mostly in the middle overs phase, where he could be sending down a couple of overs against vulnerable middle order batters who have had little to no time in the middle at the tournament, such as Nitish Kumar and Harmeet Singh.

The all-rounder has collected 2+ wickets in four of his last eight matches, and with these conditions in his favour, we like his chances of adding to the tally.

Prediction: Hardik Pandya over 1.5 wickets - 1.83 @ 22Bet Sports