Trump Conviction Odds Swing in Favour Of Outgoing President

UK punters have shied away from backing a conviction against Donald Trump as the outgoing president’s second impeachment in three years is taken to the Senate.

Trump’s final days as president of the United States were marred by an impeachment process in Congress following the storming of a mob of his supporters in the Capitol building that left five people dead.

The Democrat-majority House of Representatives – the lower chamber – impeached the 74-year-old following the incident, which took place in early January as Senators ratified Joe Biden’s successful election victory in November.

The impeachment process has now been passed to the Senate – the upper chamber – to determine guilt. If the 100-seat chamber agrees to the impeachment by a two-thirds majority then it will be upheld.

Yet political betting sites don’t seem too confident of the Senate delivering a first ever successful conviction from impeachment.

Trump Impeachment Betting Odds

Trump was charged with “incitement of insurrection” over the Capitol Hill riot but Ladbrokes have seen their odds on him not being convicted come in to 1/3 in recent days. That gives an implied probability of 75% that the Senate won’t rubber-stamp the House’s decision.

Bettors don’t seem to have been attracted much by the 9/4 odds on the outgoing president being found guilty, with that price rising.

Indeed, for the House’s decision to be upheld the Democrats need to swing a number of Republicans to join them in the Senate. The upper chamber is split 50 seats apiece between Democrats and Republicans, with incoming vice president Kamala Harris having a casting vote on any split decisions.

However, for the Senate to uphold Trump’s impeachment there needs to be a two-third majority, which is 67 votes. Reports claim between 10 and 20 Republicans could go against the party line and vote to convict Trump – the Democrats need 17.

Trump has the chance to appeal against the House’s verdict and will get some days to state his case to the Senate. There had been hopes among Democrats that the process would be complete before Biden’s inauguration but instead the case could drag on.

Bloomberg report that Trump is also struggling to find a legal team to argue his case.

Implications For 2024

Should Trump’s impeachment be upheld in the Senate then there is confusion over whether or not it automatically rules him out of running again for president in 2024.

If convicted then the Senate can stage a vote to determine if Trump will be barred from the presidency in the future.

So far, he is the early favourite to be the Republican candidate for the next US election, although his VP Mike Pence is also tipped for 2024.