Donn McClean: Arc Picture Missing Some Pieces
City Of Troy won’t be there for starters, and we know that any race, every race, even the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, is a stronger and more interesting race for the presence of City Of Troy.
Aidan O’Brien’s horse is the outstanding middle-distance colt of his generation, the Derby winner, the Eclipse winner, the Juddmonte International winner.
But, for a while now, the champion trainer has been talking about the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the Justify colt is on track.
We know that he is box office too, that was evidenced by the magnitude of interest that there was in the piece of work that he did at Southwell a couple of weeks ago.
Next stop Del Mar. Direct to Del Mar. No stopover in Paris.
Calandogan chased City Of Troy home in the Juddmonte International. A seriously impressive winner of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, Francis Graffard’s horse will not be lining up in the Arc either, simply because he is a gelding, and geldings are not allowed.
It says it in the race conditions: 3yo+, No Geldings.
They'll Go Without Goliath
The 2024 King George winner Goliath won’t be there either for the same reason. There is talk of changing the stipulation at some stage, of allowing the geldings to run, and a change may be imminent, but not imminent enough to allow Calandogan and Goliath run in this year’s renewal. It’s a double-whammy for trainer Francis Graffard.
And you can add the Prix Foy winner Iresine to the list of geldings who, by definition, won’t be lining up in the Arc.
White Birch, Passenger and Ezeliya are all out for the season, and they are all missed. Any or all of them would have been big additions to the Arc. White Birch was morphing into a top-class four-year-old.
Second in the Dante last year and third in the Derby, he won his first three races this season, Group 3, Group 2, Group 1, the Alleged Stakes and the Mooresbridge Stakes, before he stepped back up to Group 1 level and won the Tattersalls Gold Cup.
It’s a real shame for John and George Murphy that he is out for the season. Hopefully he will be able to resume his progress next term.
It's also a real shame that we didn’t get to see Passenger after his defeat at York in July, and that we didn’t get to see Ezeliya after her impressive Oaks win. A progressive and top-class three-year-old, Dermot Weld’s filly would surely have been a big player in the Arc.
Warm Race Despite Absentees
Dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin may yet make it to the Arc, a lot depends on what the weather does between now and then, but Economics won’t.
William Haggas has campaigned his horse patiently and astutely all season. A horse who wins the Dante by six lengths is automatically going to be high in the betting for the Derby, but his trainer determined that it was not the right race for his horse, not at that stage of his career.
Instead, he gave him a break, brought him to Deauville in August, where he won the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Oranano, then brought him to Leopardstown in September where he won the Irish Champion Stakes.
Now Isa Salman Al Khalifa’s colt is on track for the Champion Stakes at Ascot in mid-October, not the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in early October.
That said, even without the absentees, this year’s Arc is still going to be a warm race. Look De Vega was favourite before he was beaten in the Prix Niel two weeks ago.
Carlos and Yann Lerner’s colt was impressive in winning the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in early June, and he was racing for the first time since when he was beaten in the Niel.
Los Angeles Heads O’Brien Arc Team
Sosie took over the mantle as Arc favourite when he won the Niel, reversing places with Look De Vega, turning a two-and-a-quarter-length deficit from the Jockey Club into a three-and-a-half-length surfeit.
But recent reports about Look De Vega’s work have been strong, and the Lope De Vega colt hasn’t strayed too far from the top of the Arc market.
It looks like Los Angeles will head up the Aidan O’Brien Arc team. Ireland’s perennial champion trainer, the master of Ballydoyle won his first Arc with Dylan Thomas in 2007, and he fielded the 1-2-3 at Chantilly in 2016 when Found got the better of her stable companions Highland Reel and Order Of St George, and Los Angeles goes there with a real chance.
Winner of the Irish Derby in late June, the Camelot colt stayed on strongly to win the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York in August.
Great Voltigeur winners usually step up in trip and contest the St Leger, but Los Angeles dropped back in trip to 10 furlongs last time and ran a big race to finish fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes.
He should be better suited by the 12-furlong trip at Longchamp.
Al Riffa A Real Player
Joseph O’Brien hasn’t won the Arc yet, but in Al Riffa he has a real player in this year’s renewal. Winner of the Group 1 National Stakes at as juvenile, the Wootton Bassett colt was the only one who could give City Of Troy a race in the Eclipse, and he warmed up for the Arc with an impressive victory in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten in August.
That race that has been won in the past by subsequent Arc winners Alpinista, Torquator Tasso, Danedream and Marienbard, with both Danedream and Marienbard winning both races in the same year.
Japanese raider Shin Emperor is one of the most intriguing runners. A staying on third in the Japanese Derby at Tokyo in May, Yoshito Yahagi’s horse ran a massive race in the Irish Champion Stakes last time.
Competing over a distance that is probably short of his best, he travelled well through his race and, a little short of room two furlongs out, he stayed on strongly once in the clear to finish third, just a length behind the winner Economics and a head in front of Los Angeles.
He should come on for that run, the Arc has been his primary objective for a while, and he should be happier over the 12-furlong trip at Longchamp than he was over 10 furlongs at Leopardstown.
A son of Siyouni, he is a full-brother to Sottsass, who finished fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes in 2020 before winning the Arc three weeks later, and his trainer has proven that he can compete at the highest level both domestically and internationally. He could out-run current odds of around 6/1 with betting sites by a fair way.
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