Donn McClean: Reassuring When Data Confirms What You Think You Saw
Like, in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on Saturday, Doyen Quest was held up off what looked like a sedate pace.
Dan Skelton’s horse made good ground to move in behind the leaders at the top of the home straight, and he looked a likely winner when he moved into second place at the second last flight, which is probably around about the point at which he traded at 1.96 in-running.
In the end, he couldn't get past Josh The Boss, who led from early and picked up well from the front.
Sure enough, according to the RaceIQ data, the winner’s finishing speed was 109.78% of his overall speed, which suggests that the early pace was not strong, and that it was an advantage to race up with it.
Doyen Street did well to get as close as he did, given that he was held up early on and had to make his ground into a quickening pace.
And it was a similar story with his stable companion Take No Chances who, like Doyen Quest, was making her seasonal debut. She kept on well to take third place, having raced towards the rear too early on, recording a finishing speed percentage of 108.74% of overall speed.
Furthermore, her best form last season was over further, she won a handicap hurdle over three miles and one furlong at Warwick in April, and she should do even better when stepped back up in trip.
The Zetland Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday was different. It looked like they went fast early, it looked like County Mayo set a strong early pace for the 10-furlong contest, and he did.
11.4secs for the second furlong, says the data, 11.2secs for the third. He had a fair break on the rest of the field though, he was 0.75secs faster to the end of the fourth furlong than the next fastest horse.
The figures tell you that he wasn’t the only horse who was going faster than ideal. Green Storm was second fastest through each of the first three furlongs, and he moved to the front when County Mayo faded on the run to the three-furlong marker.
Charlie Johnston’s horse remained in front too for a long time, he stuck to his task doggedly until he was overhauled by Starzintheireyes deep inside the final furlong. Even so, he did well to keep on as well as he did to finish second, having raced up just behind a fast pace from early.
To put it into context, his finishing speed was just over 95% of his overall speed. RaceIQ’s par is 101.64%, so it is easy to conclude that Green Storm’s performance was a fair bit better than the bare form of the run suggests, given that he only gave best late on to a rival who was held up early, well away from the strong early pace.
This was just Green Storm’s fifth run too, and it was a career-best performance over the longest trip over which he had raced in his life. By Queen Anne Stakes and St James’s Palace Stakes winner Circus Maximus, and out of the Ribblesdale Stakes winner Banimpire, he should be seen to even greater effect when he steps up to a mile and a half next season.
There were other instances over the weekend in which the sectionals gave you an insight. Like, in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, run over a mile, 35 minutes after the Zetland Stakes, and in contrast to the Zetland Stakes, in which the early pace was moderate.
Nevertheless, the manner in which both the winner and runner-up, Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens, picked up was impressive. They both broke 23.4secs for the final two furlongs, they were 0.82secs and 0.92secs faster through that section of the race than winner of the Dewhurst, a Group 1 race run over a trip that was a furlong shorter, but run at a stronger pace.
It’s also interesting when the data tells you something that wasn’t apparent to the naked eye.
Watching the first race at York on Saturday live, the Listed Rockingham Stakes, you would have been forgiven for thinking that the early pace favoured the prominent racers, because the two horses who raced in first and second places from flagfall, Jungle Drums and It Ain’t Two, were first and second across the winning line too.
But the sectionals tell you that they went fast from early. Jungle Drums clocked 14.19secs for the first furlong from his standing start, and he went 11.08secs, 11.26secs and 11.61secs through furlongs two, three and four respectively.
Consequently, his finishing speed percentage was slow, just 93.56% of his overall speed, which, when compared to RaceIQ’s par of 98.6%, tells you that he went fast through the early part of the race.
Even so, he went to the line strongly relative to his rivals, he was faster through the final two furlongs than all of his rivals, and he pulled one and three-quarter lengths clear of his closest pursuer.
A winner over five furlongs on his racecourse debut at Hamilton in June, Karl Burke’s horse was putting up a career-best performance here on the softest ground on which he had ever raced.
He was impressive in winning, he can be marked up on the bare form of the run and, a 20/1 shot for this race, it may be that the market will continue to under-estimate him. His pedigree is all sprinting, but he could get seven furlongs next season on this evidence.
Finally, back to the jumps, and Bleu De Vassy was visually impressive in winning his maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday on his racecourse debut.
Gordon Elliott’s horse hadn’t run since he won his bumper at Clonmel in April, and he was a little weak in the market beforehand, but it never looked likely that he wouldn’t win.
He travelled really well through his race for Jack Kennedy and his jumping was very good for a debutant. And, when his rider gave him a squeeze at the second last flight, he came away from his rivals readily. At the winning line, he had come 25 lengths clear.
The RaceIQ figures confirmed the visuals too. The Gigginstown House horse dipped under 13 seconds for each of his final three furlongs.
Sixty-three horses ran at Fairyhouse on Saturday, and he was the only one who went faster than 13 seconds for any furlong, and he did it for three furlongs in a row, each of the last three furlongs of his race. He obviously goes well on this goodish ground, and he will be of interest now when he steps up in grade.
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