Donn McClean: Where will the Willie Mullins-trained Novice Hurdlers Run at Cheltenham?

The act of figuring out in which races the Willie Mullins-trained novice hurdlers will run is an integral part of the Cheltenham preamble these days. Supreme or Baring Bingham? Or Albert Bartlett? Or ‘one of the handicaps’? (Remember State Man?)

It’s a worthwhile exercise too, even now, even when you can filch out the non-runner-no-bet concession if you want to.

And not only because, ideally, you don’t want to be tying funds up during the Cheltenham build-up in a non-bet, nor because, obviously, the all-in ante post odds are usually greater than the non-runner-no-bet odds.

But also because, if you think that a Willie Mullins horse won’t run in a specific race before the market does, and if you get it right, then there is obvious value to be had in the rest of the market.

They’re just best guesses, mind you. They can only be best guesses. It appears that even Willie Mullins hasn’t hammered down all targets for sure himself.

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The road from Closutton to Cheltenham is replete with last-moment jinks and u-turns. The 11th hour for most is the 719th minute at Closutton.

Take Ballyburn as an example. The Flemensfirth gelding is best-priced 10/11 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with the main firms who are betting non-runner-no-bet, and he is around 2.36 on the exchanges, all-in obviously.

By contrast, he is as big as 2/1 with the firms who are betting non-runner-no-bet for the Baring Bingham, and he is as big as 6.6 on the exchanges, all-in.

If you are betting ante-post, all-in, you are in effect betting a double: [a] that the horse runs in the race for which you have backed him and [b] (given that the horse is running in the race, given that you have the first leg of the double up) that he or she wins that race.

It’s easy to conclude, then, that the all-in odds for Ballyburn represent poor value when compared with the non-runner-no-bet odds.

You could take the 2.36 about him for the Supreme, and clap yourself on the back if and when he is declared to run in the race, exhale, safe in the knowledge that you have beaten the market, at least for the time being.

But it probably isn’t value, not when his intended target remains, as yet, undecided.

There’s a potential angle there for starters. Bear with the maths here for a second, but you could lay Ballyburn for the Supreme at 2.36 all-in, (say £42.37 to lose £57.63) and for the Baring Bingham at 6.6 (£15.15 to lose £84.85).

If he runs in the Supreme, you back him for the race with the £15.15 that you won on his non-participation in the Baring Bingham, let’s say at even money, to win £15.15, which means that you win £42.37 if he loses and you lose £42.48 (£57.63 - £15.15) if he wins.

So you are effectively laying him at just over even money if he runs in the Supreme.

By contrast, if he runs in the Baring Bingham, you back him for that race with the £42.37 that you won for his non-participation in the Supreme, say at 2/1, to win £84.74.

That means that you win £15.15 if he is runs in and is beaten in the Baring Bingham, and you lose just £0.02 (£84.85 - £84.87) if he wins. So you effectively have a bet to nothing if he runs in the Baring Bingham.

And, in the unlikely and unwelcome event that something untoward happens and he runs in neither, then you cop the lot.

There could be generous prices knocking around about Ballyburn in the day-of-race markets too, as the bookmakers get competitive in order to try to attract new customers in a shop-window week.

Facile Vega was sent off at 9/4 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year. Constitution Hill was also sent off at 9/4 in 2022.

Moreover, given the degree to which Ballyburn’s likely participation in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has been factored into the market, there may be value in the race beyond the favourite.

His stable companion Mystical Power, for example, is 9/2 best-price with the firms who are offering non-runner-no-bet, and he is 8.0 on the exchanges. 

The same Mystical Power is 13/2 for the Baring Bingham, and he is 9.2 for the Baring Bingham on the exchanges.

Given that Ballyburn is taking out over 42% of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market, it is probable that Mystical Power would be much shorter than 8.0 for the Supreme if his stable companion defected to the Baring Bingham.

It’s the same for other Supreme Novices’ Hurdle candidates, and, conversely, for Baring Bingham candidates, although to a lesser extent, if Ballyburn runs in the curtain-raiser instead.

At his media day on Monday, Willie Mullins was characteristically non-committal. Ballyburn’s pedigree is laced with stamina, a full-brother to Paddy Power Chase winner Noble Endeavor, and to Minella Daddy, who won the Tim Molony Handicap Chase over three and a half miles at Haydock.

Also, his maiden hurdle win at Leopardstown over Christmas was over two and a half miles. That all points to the Baring Bingham.

But he won the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival over two miles, and that is a race that usually and unsurprisingly points to the Supreme.

Klassical Dream, Appreciate It, Asterion Forlonge, Il Etait Temps. That said, Samcro won the first renewal of the Leopardstown race in its current guise, the first renewal since it was reduced in distance from two and a quarter miles to two miles, and Samcro went on to win the Baring Bingham at Cheltenham.

Sir Gerhard trod the same path in 2022. It’s not a given that the winner runs in the Supreme.

Mystical Power could be a factor too in where Ballyburn goes. By the outstanding stallion Galileo out of the remarkable National Hunt racemare Annie Power, Mystical Power was high-profile before he ever set foot on a racecourse.

You would have thought that he would make his mark over further than the minimum trip, and that may still be the case, but his three wins have all been over two miles, and he proved when he won the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Hurdle last time that he is not devoid of pace.

Willie Mullins won the Moscow Flyer Hurdle last season with Impaire Et Passe, who won the Baring Bingham Hurdle at Cheltenham, but that was a departure from the norm.

The Willie Mullins Moscow Flyer Hurdle winners that went immediately before – Vautour, Douvan, Min, Getabird, Dysart Dynamo – all ran in the Supreme.

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History tells you that the champion trainer tends to split his ‘best’ two novice hurdlers up at Cheltenham: one goes in the Supreme and the other goes in the Baring Bingham.

If you think that he will follow precedent this year, and if you subscribe to the notion that Ballyburn and Mystical Power are his best two novice hurdlers, then you could be onto an angle. 

And the others will probably fall into line: Tullyhill and Asian Master and Mistergif maybe for the Supreme. Ile Atlantique and Predators Gold maybe for the Baring Bingham. Dancing City and High Class Hero and maybe Readin Tommy Wrong and Lecky Watson for the Albert Bartlett.

They’re just best guesses though.

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