Joe Biden Replacement Odds: Harris Leads Obama As Clinton Odds Crash

UK betting sites have shuffled their odds on who will replace Joe Biden and campaign as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US election following the president’s decision to quit the race.

Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favourite to succeed Mr Biden and go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump for the presidency this November.

However, bookmakers have also moved their odds on Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton gaining the backing of the Democratic party four months out from the election.

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It appears to be a three-horse race for the party nomination but bookmakers already believe Ms Harris has taken a near-insurmountable lead on the other two names.

So much so that Ms Harris’s odds are now roughly the same as Sir Keir Starmer’s to be UK prime minister when the recent general election was called in late May.

There is also one other outlying contender who could throw their hat in the ring: Gavin Newsom.

However, it appears increasingly likely that the Democrats will coronate Ms Harris rather than go through an arduous selection process, potentially during the party convention next month, which could expose fissures across the party. 

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Who Could Replace Joe Biden?

Before we look at who could succeed Mr Biden on the Democratic ticket this autumn, it’s worth remembering that these markets don’t take into account the possibility of him stepping down before the election.

There are a different set of Joe Biden odds that focus on his completing four years in office. Were he to step down then Ms Harris, as vice president, would take over presidential duties.

Bookmakers, though, are focusing their attention on who will replace Biden for the election. After all, that’s supposedly less of a foregone conclusion.

Yet the state of the market suggests Ms Harris will cruise to the party nomination.

Here are the four most likely candidates for the post.

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Kamala Harris

The natural option is to pick vice-president Kamala Harris to succeed Mr Biden on the Democratic ticket. After all, Ms Harris was tipped to be their candidate for this race when she secured the VP job heading into the 2020 election.

That’s because Mr Biden was never meant to run for a second term. Yet age has caught up with the president, who has now admitted defeat just four months out from the election.

The Democrats need a unity candidate and Ms Harris is the obvious choice as VP. She polls better than Mr Biden against Mr Trump – although is still around three points off the Republican figurehead – and could attract different voter demographics who had fled her predecessor.

Betting sites believe she is a shoo-in. Ladbrokes dropped her odds of succeeding Mr Biden from 6/4 before the president’s announcement to 1/10. Those odds are shrinking by the hour.

She is also now 2/1 with politics betting sites to win the 2024 US presidential election – a price that suggests a 33.3% chance against Mr Trump.

Michelle Obama

If the Democrats choose not to go straight for Ms Harris then it opens the door for the influential Michelle Obama to run. Polling suggests she is the only person from among the Democratic names who could steal a lead on Mr Trump heading into the final few months of the election.

Her odds with Betway sunk from 10/1 to 8/1, only to rebound again back to 10/1. That suggests a 9% likelihood, which is slim.

However, the former First Lady could be a more viable proposition than Ms Harris. While many on the MAGA right hate the Obamas as much as they do the Clintons, Ms Obama certainly has wider support than the current VP.

This could be crucial in taking on the Trump machine. She’s popular among women and ethnic minority voters. She’d almost certainly secure the key swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Undecided voters who are thinking of gambling with Mr Trump may find Ms Obama a more palliative option. Her odds are likely to sink further on betting apps.

Hillary Clinton

It’s unlikely that Ms Clinton would even entertain the prospect of running for president again, but her odds have drifted to 33/1 on new betting sites since Mr Biden’s announcement.

Ms Clinton would bring serious heft to the Democratic cause and with it a heap of campaign money. The Dems could use her candidacy as a means of righting the wrongs of the 2016 campaign, where she was beaten by Mr Trump despite winning the popular vote.

However, the Republicans managed to demolish the Clinton reputation during that campaign and Mr Trump would use her choice to run as an example of how the political elites don’t care about ordinary Americans.

It’s the same issue Ms Obama would have if she ran for president. 

Does Ms Clinton really want to take the fight to a MAGA crowd that is bigger and more vocal then eight years ago? Perhaps not.

Gavin Newsom

It looks like a three-horse race for the Democratic pick for president but Gavin Newsom could be a late contender to surge through to steal the show.

The California governor polls well but has already said he will back Ms Harris in the days since Mr Biden’s announcement.

Of course, he could always row back on that support or choose to run if Ms Harris declines. Yet the bookies reckon he’s probably more likely to be the vice presidential nominee on the Harris ticket, instead of headlining the bill himself.

Betfred’s 25/1 price is realistic price for Mr Newsom. He is popular across the party but perhaps doesn’t have the financial weight that the other three names in this race do.