How Much Tax Will Skill Games Generate for Pennsylvania?

As it continues to look more likely that skill games will go the same way as PA online casinos and start being taxed, the question on everyone’s mind is: how much money is the Keystone State looking to generate from this tax? Predictions have varied, according to whether you believe whether Gene Yaw’s 16% model or Governor Josh Shapiro’s 42% model will be followed. But now, we appear to have an official calculation from the government’s Independent Fiscal Office itself (IFO).

Skill Games Tax Revenue Can Reach $421 Million in 5 Years

Government Shapiro’s predictions regarding the tax generated by Pennsylvania from skill games start out strong, hitting the $150 million from the very first year and eventually climbing up to $317.9 million in 2028/29.

The IFO’s predictions, on the other hand, start off with a much more modest of $103 for the first year. However, in five years’ time the government’s predictions are exceedingly even those of Shapiro, hitting $421 million. 

This is how the IFO broke down its calculations in this way: ““The estimate assumes that: (1) 15,000 machines are regulated and operating in FY 2024-25 and that number increases to 29,000 by FY 2028-29, (2) the average gross gaming revenue per machine is $30,000 in FY 2024-25 and that average grows by 2.5% per annum, and (3) 25 wholesalers are licensed.”

The predictions are based on the 42% tax model, rather than the lower one that has currently reached the Gambling Oversight Committee. However, there are yet no concrete indications as to which model will make it through.