Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction & College Basketball Picks 12/05

NCAA Best Bet Today #1: ⭐ Over 144.5 (-115) at FanDuel

Indiana visits Michigan for one of the top Big 10 games on Tuesday. The Hoosiers have looked decent early on, going 6-1 with their only loss coming to UCONN. Indiana started conference play with a 65-53 win over Maryland and will look to make it 2-0 with another victory over a struggling Michigan group. The Wolverines have lost four of their last five games and do not seem to be interested in playing any semblance of defense. 

We like Indiana- Michigan Over 144.5 (-115) at FanDuel. Michigan is one of the worst teams on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 261st in points allowed (76.4) and 224th in defensive effective field goal percentage (51%). It gets worse, with the Wolverines ranking 343 out of 351 teams in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make 39% from beyond the arc. We expect an efficient Indiana team that shoots 58% from inside the arc (16th-best) to find success against Michigan's porous defense. 

But as bad as the Wolverines are on defense, the offense is solid. Michigan averages 82 points per game, which is 39th-best in the country. Its offensive effective field goal percentage ranks 18th at 57%. 

Michigan will score its share of points, but its poor defense will also allow Indiana to score consistently inside. Take the over in this matchup.

Betting Pick: Over 144.5 (-115) at FanDuel

NCAA Best Bet Today #2: ⭐ Mackenzie Mgbako Over 11.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM

Mackenzie Mgbako was one of the top recruits in the country and decided to become a Hoosier. He was a consensus five-star recruit ranked inside the top 10 at numerous recruiting outlets. There are signs Mgbako is starting to figure it out on the offensive end, too. We're going to back Mgbako in Indiana's matchup against Michigan. 

We like Mackenzie Mgbako Over 11.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM. Mgbako has gone over this player prop in his last two games with 18 points against Harvard and 13 versus Maryland. In those games, Mgbako combined to shoot 11 of 22 from the field.

We're going to back Mgbako to continue his recent scoring surge. One area he's struggled this season is beyond the arc, making just 15% of his 3s while attempting 2.9 3-pointers per game. But this should be a get-right game for Mgbako's shooting stroke considering Michigan has a bottom 10 ranked defense when it comes to defending the 3. If he gets it going from 3-point range, Mgbako should clear this prop easily. 

Betting Pick: Mackenzie Mgbako Over 11.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM

NCAA Best Bet Today #3: ⭐ Kel'el Ware Over 15.5 Points (-122)  at FanDuel

For our next player prop in the Indiana vs. Michigan matchup, we're going to target Indiana center Kel'el Ware. The Oregon transfer and former McDonald's All-American has excelled at Indiana thus far, averaging 17.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game while making 64% of his shot attempts. 

We like Kel'el Ware Over 15.5 Points (-122)  at FanDuel. Ware has gone over this prop number in each of his last two games, scoring 28 points in the win over Harvard before recording 18 against Maryland. In those two games, Ware has converted on 20 of 25 shots, including 2 of 2 from 3-point range. His unique skill set allows him to score at the rim with his athleticism while still allowing him to knock down shots from the perimeter. 

Ware has scored at least 18 points in four of his last six games and will now get to face one of the worst defenses the Hoosiers will see this season. We expect Ware to continue his efficient scoring ways. 

Betting Pick: Kel'el Ware Over 15.5 Points (-122) at FanDuel

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