Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Preview - A Mountainous Week

The last rest day on Monday gives us a few opportunities to prepare for a hectic week at the Giro D’Italia. Everything has been seen, from crazy tactics to unexpected winners (see Brandon McNulty Stage 15). 

The big story is that over 40 riders have had to bow out of the race, leaving a smaller-than-usual peloton. It means fewer contenders, too. Geraint Thomas, Primoz Roglic, and Joao Almeida are the leading contenders.  This makes betting more contentious and dangerous. Why? With so few viable GC options, it means GC stage winners may be less likely. 

For those who are betting on cycling, we look early at Tuesday's Stage 16 mountain stage. Many riders will find this a nasty punch to the gut after a rest day.

Breaking Down Giro d'Italia Stage 16

When Giro designers pondered about the last week, they wanted a huge test. Well, this edition delivers. At least, there is a warmup of sorts for Stage 16. The first 60 kilometers are primarily flat. Riders will see a lake and then cross a river. That leads to the first climb to Nago. It’s a mere 1.6 kilometers but has an average gradient of 8.4%. Expect it to be a wake-up call to riders.

This stage features 5,200 meters of total climbing. The last ⅔ of the stage feels like one is going up and down. The Passo di Santa Barbara is a nasty ascent with some 14% hairpins and a just as ugly descent. A few more climbs are less demanding, but the tricky descents could catch a few riders off guard. 

The intriguing part is how riders will approach this stage. Look at the final climb up Monte Bandone. This is a 21.4-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 6.7%. Hey, that does not sound so bad. However, there is a 15% section about 5.5 kilometers from the finish, which could be an excellent springboard for someone from the General Classification or a small breakaway.

Check locally for those watching television in the United States. Bein Sports Extra will carry the stage starting at 9:15 a.m. ET. There are also GCN+ and Discovery + for-pay options if one is abroad. 

So, this version of the Giro has had its issues with rain. However, Stage 15 saw the sun and a good deal of it. Hopefully, that continues.

Some Riders To Watch at Giro d'Italia

Fortunately, Stage 16 has some spots for the climbers who want to make a break for it and not just the contenders. What did Ben Healy learn on Sunday and Thibault Pinot on Saturday? Do not attack yourself out of a stage. Dylan Gee (from Canada) has three second-place finishes and a fourth. If he can get into a break, he is someone to watch out for at +3500.

Again, Monte Baldone has one slight kick in the final three kilometers, but the finish is not too steep. Jay Vine could be a threat if he feels better after several early crashes. At +2200, Vine is a bit of a long shot. Some wonder about a rendezvous of the Pinot-Cepeda tete-a-tete. Hey, it is possible.

Thankfully, temperatures may moderate for Tuesday. Again, this is Italy, and things can change. 

Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Predictions

The books like Primoz Roglic for a good reason. Again, the wild card is how the legs will be after a rest day. Roglic did not attack like some predicted during Stage 15. The cobblestones near the finish were an excellent launching pad for the Slovenian. Was he playing coy and setting something up? Perhaps. 

Here is our projected early table of the favorites and where their odds may lie. 

Again, expect the unexpected. Good luck, bettors, and hopefully, some numbers adjust for Tuesday. The betting money is on Roglic to make a late kick. Do not sleep on Ben Healy or Thibault Pinot, however.