Road to the Kentucky Derby: Risen Star Stakes

Saturday’s $400,000 Risen Star drew a full field of 14, including eight stakes-placed. Two entrants, Curly Jack (sixth) and Victory Formation (11th), are among the top dozen on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard. 

Last year, the top five finishers of the Risen Star all reached the Kentucky Derby. Risen Star winner Epicenter would finish second as the betting favorite in the opening jewel of the Triple Crown. Zandon finished third in both races.  

The Risen Star is the first 100-point race of the calendar year, with 50 points awarded to the winner, and 20-15-10-5 for second through fifth. The race, which virtually guarantees the winner enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, is a stepping stone to the 200-point, $1 million Louisiana Derby, the Fair Grounds’ signature race, on March 25.

The road to the Derby began in September 2022 and continues through April 15. The top 20 point qualifiers earn automatic entry into the 149th Kentucky Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs. 

The Risen Star is the lone U.S.-based Derby points event this week. One international race is on the schedule: The Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday, which offers 30 Kentucky Derby points to the winner. The Hyacinth was included in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series in 2017. 

Risen Star Stakes

Track: Fair Grounds, New Orleans

Date: Saturday, Feb. 18, 2023

Distance: 1 1/8 mile

Purse: $400,000

Risen Star Stakes Field

Risen Star Stakes Analysis

Two of the sport’s top trainers, Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox, each have three horses in the race. Cox’s trio is more formidable, with Victory Formation, Tapit’s Conquest and Angel of Empire all solid contenders.

Asmussen’s top charge is Harlocap, recently transferred from the barn of Bob Baffert. Baffert's horses are ineligible to collect Derby points because of the trainer’s suspension from Churchill Downs. Look for more Baffert horses to change trainers in the next two weeks.

Other notable contenders include Curly Jack, winner of the Iroquois Stakes as a 2-year-old at Churchill Downs last year; Two Phil’s, second in the Lecomte Stakes over this track on Jan. 21; and even the Todd Pletcher-trained Crupi, a maiden who has two seconds and three thirds in five-lifetime starts.

Given the size and depth of the Risen Star field, this is a quality betting race. 

Risen Star Stakes Selections

1. Victory Formation is 3-for-3 after an easy gate-to-wire victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 1. Starting from the 13 post here is less than ideal, but Victory Formation has shown quickness out of the gate and should be able to gain a forward position without losing significant ground around the first turn. Despite the large field, there isn’t an abundance of early speed in the race. If Victory Formation can handle the extra furlong, it’s his race to lose.

2. Two Phil’s ran a strong second in the Lecomte last month behind Instant Coffee, who is currently No. 2 on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard. Expect him to be rallying from mid-pack. His recent bullet workout indicates readiness. Anything near his morning-line odds of 8-1 is a square price. 

3. Angel of Empire took advantage of an ideal inside trip to finish second behind Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones Stakes. New jockey Luis Saez will need to work out a similar-type trip for this late-running colt, who has shown significant improvement in each dirt start. He can pick up some pieces late at double-digit odds.

Of the others, Tapit’s Conquest steps up to stakes company for the first time, but has three consecutive solid efforts. … Curly Jack already has 17 Derby points and will be a factor on the Derby trail, but is coming off a layoff and lands in a difficult spot to return.

Risen Star Stakes Betting Strategy

Win-place bets on Victory Formation. Exacta: box Victory Formation and Two Phil’s; key Victory Formation over Angel of Empire and Tapit’s Conquest. Trifecta: key Victory Formation first and second with Two Phil’s Angel of Empire, Tapit’s Conquest, Crupi and Harlocap.