College Football Picks: Can Kansas State Upend TCU in Big 12 Title Game?

The Big 12 championship game between Kansas State and TCU offers opportunities for those looking to rack up some college football betting winners. The game is Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Other title games also are on the line this weekend.

Let's take a look.

No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, Noon ET, ABC

Line: TCU -1 points | Total: 61points

I am betting on Kansas State, using the moneyline +110 as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.

Predictive Model Favors K-State

With a line favoring TCU by one point, and an Over-Under of 61 points, the implication is that TCU will prevail, 31-30. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that TCU will score 27 or fewer points on Saturday and will record the same number of turnovers as K-State, or fewer.

Over the past five seasons, TCU is 3-16 SU (16%) and 2-17 ATS (11%) in games scoring 27 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers as their opponent.

Also over the past five seasons, K-State is 23-6 SU (79%) and 24-5 ATS (83%) when allowing 27 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers.

That’s why I’m taking K-State on the moneyline.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

With a current Over-Under of 61 points, there will be the potential for multiple scores by the same team before the other team answers back with its own score.

So, consider betting K-State with 50% of your normal bet size on the moneyline “pre-flop,” and then look for TCU to score the first touchdown (not a field goal).

If that happens, then add the remaining 50% bet amount at 4.5 or more points using the live betting lines.

Quick Kicks

Here are some other betting opportunities on my radar to bet on this weekend.

• Take North Carolina +7.5 points over Clemson in the ACC Championship game.
• Take Troy at -7.5 points over Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Over the past three seasons, Troy is 10-2 ATS when facing solid passing teams that are averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.