College Football: What We Learned From Week 10

In Week 9, college football favorites of 17.5 or more points went 9-0 SU, and 5-4-1 against the spread mark. They were also 4-5 on the Over-Under. 

So, these big favorites have gone 189-10 for the season hitting 95% wins, but the market has priced them correctly producing a 100-95-4 ATS (51.3%) and a 99-96-4 (51%) Over-Under record.  

Did the Ranked Teams Dominate in Week 10? 

Ranked teams playing at home in Week 10 went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS and 3-5 Over-Under. Over the past three weeks, ranked teams playing at home went 32-5 SU and 25-11-1 ATS (69%) and 19-17 on the Over-Under.  

Ranked teams on the road went 9-7 SU (56%), 8-8 ATS and 6-10 Over-Under. Over the past four weeks ranked road teams went just 18-25 (42%) SU and 6-26-1 ATS (38%) and 23-20 Over-Under.  

Where Are the Upset Alerts on Ranked Teams in Week 11? 

For the season, ranked teams at home taking on a ranked opponent have gone 25-9 SU (74%), 21-12-1 ATS (64%), and 17-17 Over-Under. 

Home teams that were ranked higher in the polls than the ranked opponent have gone 11-2 SU (85%), 8-5 against the spread (63%), and 6-7 Over-Under. In Week 11, a potential bet on ranked teams is Tulane as a 2-point home favorite over Central Florida and Oregon priced as a 12.5-point home favorite over Washington. 

Road teams ranked higher in the polls than their opponents have gone 7-14 (33%), 7-13 –1 ATS (35%), and 11-10 Over-Under. Alabama takes to the road as an 11.5-point favorite and will be ranked higher than Mississippi in their Week 11 matchup. TCU will go on the road as a 7-point underdog facing Texas this week. So, upset alerts are on Alabama and TCU in Week 11 

Food for the Betting Souls 

Tennessee's chances were hurt and Clemson's hopes of a national championship burst amid highly physical and emotional losses that are many times difficult to overcome in just a few days. 

The following betting algorithm underscores this fact and has produced a 60-12 SU record (83%), but a 28-44 ATS mark (39%), and a 35-35-1 Over-Under record (50%) since the 2010 season. 

• Bet against home favorites that are coming off their first loss of the season.
• The game is the home team’s sixth or greater game played.
• The home team defeated the opponent last season.

Now, here is a subset that has produced even better ATS results. If our home team is priced as a 17.5 or more-point favorite, they are 32-1 SU (97%), but just 11-22 ATS (33%) including a 16-15-1 Over-Under record. This tells us to consider fading Tennessee when it hosts Missouri this Saturday.  

This subset presents an even stronger opportunity to fade Clemson as a 7.5-point home favorite when it hosts Louisville in a huge ACC matchup. If our favorite is priced at 9.5 or fewer points, the false favorites go 10-10 SU, 5-15 ATS (25%) including a 10-10 Over-Under record. 

Best Bet for Week 11 to Bet Now 

In a big SEC matchup, Georgia will take to the road as the No.1 ranked team in the nation to take on Mississippi State and are priced as 16.5-point favorites with a posted total of 54 points. 

The market implies that Georgia will win a final score of 35.25 to 18.75. My predictive model projects an 85% probability that Georgia will score 31 or more points and that Mississippi State will gain less than 3 yards per carry. 

• Over the past five seasons, Georgia is 20-0 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) when scoring 31 or more points and allowing less than three yards per carry.
• Over the past five seasons, Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS (12%) in home games and gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards over the past five seasons.

If you agree with the research, the preferred betting strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size now and see how the market money flows and prices move throughout the week. 

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