Next Labour Leader Betting: Burnham Leads Streeting To Replace Starmer

UK betting sites believe there are six viable contenders to replace Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader when he eventually steps down – but aren’t expecting a change at the top any time soon.

Starmer has steered Labour into a 20-point poll lead over the Conservatives as the country closes in on another general election. Were a vote to be held today then Labour would command a huge majority in the Commons and shore up Starmer’s leadership for years to come.

Such is his position of strength that UK bookmakers don’t expect Starmer to cede power in the party for many years to come. To that extent, they believe Andy Burnham, who is not even an MP, is the favourite to eventually replace the leader.

The latest shifts in the politics betting markets all point to Burnham one-day succeeding Starmer.

It means the likes of Wes Streeting, Lisa Nandy, Rachel Reeves and Angela Rayner – all central figures in Starmer’s shadow cabinet – could be overlooked when it comes to choosing a new party leader.

Who Will Replace Keir Starmer?

Right now, betting apps believe Manchester mayor Burnham is the favourite to one-day replace Starmer as Labour leader. Burnham has rebuilt his political career after a disastrous campaign to lead the party in 2015, and is well liked across the northern belt.

However, the fact he is favourite highlights the bookies’ expectations that Starmer will not be replaced any time soon. After all, Burnham would need a seat in Westminster to take up the Labour leadership, and he hasn’t indicated a desire to return to parliament at the next election.

This is what happened in 2015 when Boris Johnson took up a seat in parliament (while also London mayor) and made it fairly obvious that he was gunning for the Conservative leadership.

Any move from the Manchester mayor would likely set alarm bells ringing in Starmer’s camp. Therefore, it may only be after a period of government that Burnham makes the shift back to the capital.

Next Labour Leader Odds

Political betting sites have Burnham as the 4/1 favourite to replace Starmer. However, there remains a lingering chance that the current leader steps down or is forced out before Burnham can return to parliament.

Were this to happen – perhaps if Labour don’t win the next UK general election – then Starmer’s shadow cabinet would all likely run for the leadership. Streeting, Nandy and Reeves are all 6/1 to be the next Labour leader. Deputy leader Rayner is at 7/1, while Yvette Cooper is the outside pick at 10/1.

The bookies are refusing to commit to a certain second-favourite behind Burnham, purely because Starmer’s shadow cabinet appears evenly matched. Streeting is impressive in front of the camera, Reeves has a better grasp of the economy than seemingly the chancellor, and Nandy is popular across the party. 

Rayner was once seen as Jeremy Corbyn’s natural successor but she has a far greater ability to bring all wings of the Labour party together than the former leader. 

How Starmer Could Lose His Job

Starmer put his job on the line last summer when he, alongside deputy Rayner, pledged to quit office if they were found to have broken Covid-19 social distancing rules over a curry they had while on the campaign trail in 2021. The police found no evidence to pursue a case.

Since then Starmer’s stock has only risen – both within the party and across the country. It therefore looks highly unlikely that he will be ousted as Labour leader before the next election.

However, there are rumblings of discontent across the left of the party. This is mainly down to Starmer’s willingness to stand by parts of the Tories’ immigration policy, and keep the two child benefit cap. 

Critics say he is needlessly pandering to Conservative voters despite being 20 points ahead of the polls. Others argue he is simply trying to please everyone in order to win more seats.

The bookies reckon he’s doing the right thing and have him at 1/7 with Unibet to win the next election. All Starmer needs to do is stay out of trouble, and effectively say nothing controversial.

Next Labour Leader Candidates

Assuming Starmer wins the next election then he’s likely to be in power for five years at least. After which, he could step down or be deposed by a rival. Burnham is the bookies’ favourite, but here are all the viable contenders:

Andy Burnham

Burnham was MP for Leigh between 2001 and 2017 before he stood for the Manchester mayoral post. He won that vote comfortably and was re-elected in 2021 with an increased share of the ballots.

Burnham had stood for the Labour leadership in 2015, only to be beaten by Jeremy Corbyn. He was seen as an identikit centrist politician then, but has built a strong reputation across the north of England thanks to his work as Manchester mayor.

For Burnham to be Labour leader he would need to return to Westminster. Conservative James Grundy is the current MP for Leigh, with a majority of less than 2,000 over Labour’s Jo Platt. Could Burnham run again here? Quite possibly.

Lisa Nandy

Another figure with growing influence outside of London, Nandy is tasked with holding Britain's levelling up minister Michael Gove to account. She is an impressive politician and has been MP for Wigan since 2010. Her briefs have already spanned children and young families, energy and climate change, and foreign affairs.

Nandy, like Starmer, represents a break from Corbynism and could be well placed to succeed the incumbent leader. She is a centre-left politician and was against the Brexit vote. Despite her Brexit stance she is considered a strong link between the Labour party and its lost voters from the 2019 election. At 6/1, she has justified her place amongst the Labour leader frontrunners.

Rachel Reeves

Another 6/1 frontrunner, Reeves – as shadow chancellor – has been in the dog fight that is Britain’s economy for the past year. She has been Leeds West MP since 2010 and is another figure who didn’t run for a front bench position under Corbyn.

Reeves has a tough brief. With the economy shrinking and inflation on the rise, she is tasked with coming up with palatable alternatives to whatever decisions Rishi Sunak makes. Having forced the government into a number of U-turns, Reeves admits she runs her team like they’re “in government”.

The worse the economy gets, the better her chances of being the next Labour leader become.

Best Of The Rest

Labour has been in opposition for 12 years and it could still be two more until they return to power. There is a lot of political talent that has been unable to fully flourish – and were a leadership contest to begin then we’d likely see a big uptake in interest.

Deputy leader Rayner is 7/1 to be the next leader. Like Burnham, it’s likely that Rayner’s only chance of becoming Labour leader rests a few years down the line. The same can be said for Sadiq Khan, the current mayor of London, who is priced at 33/1.

Yvette Cooper is perhaps Labour’s most experienced front-bench figure in Westminster, having worked as housing secretary and then pensions secretary under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. At 12/1 she is a viable candidate, and certainly electable.