Next Tory Leader Odds: Who Will Be Next Conservative Leader?
Betting sites are scrambling to adjust their Conservative party leadership odds as a flurry of new names enter the race to replace Rishi Sunak.
The Conservatives suffered a stinging defeat in July’s election, with Labour winning a landslide and the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK doing their bit to frustrate the Tories further.
Mr Sunak says he will remain leader of the party until the process for appointing a successor has been decided. Note, that does not mean the ex-PM will stay in charge until his successor is selected.
Right now there is a scramble for power in a vacuum that is the Conservative Party. Both centrists and right-wingers are eyeing the top job, but for very different reasons.
Kemi Badenoch
Robert Jenrick
Tom Tugendhat
James Cleverly
Priti Patel
Clare Coutinho
Suella Braverman
Mel Stride
Kemi Badenoch
Robert Jenrick
Tom Tugendhat
James Cleverly
Priti Patel
Clare Coutinho
Suella Braverman
Mel Stride
Some, like Tom Tugendhat, will be keen to keep the party on the centre-right and stand up in opposition this parliament. Others, like Suella Braverman, believe a harder swing to the right is necessary to win back voters.
No matter who they pick, they are underdogs to win the next election.
This election process, meanwhile, will not be simple and there are indications that it could take a few months, perhaps even running until the Tory party conference in October.
And that means betting apps are frantically chasing their odds on a long list of candidates who all have their eyes on the prize.
Who Will Replace Sunak?
Mr Sunak will not lead the Conservatives over the next parliament, but might end up having to do one PMQs and perhaps even respond to the King’s Speech later this month.
That will be an uncomfortable task for the previous prime minister, so it's possible an interim leader is found until a new leader is voted in later this year.
Political betting sites won’t take bets on the interim leader, but there's every chance whoever fills in also has aspirations to take the job on a full-time basis.
Here are the eight viable contenders for the Tory leadership right now.
Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch has been the favourite with new betting sites for months and looks destined to run when the leadership contest is announced.
She has widespread support and has successfully balanced the centre-right and right-wing flanks of the party.
Ms Badenoch offers enough to both camps for them to get behind her and unify. Betfred have her as the clear 2/1 favourite, but she is not guaranteed the job.
She will need to hold firm during hustings and toe the line between centrists and the populists in her party.
On top of that, criticism came her way when she was a minister about lacking detail when speaking about policy. She’ll need that when coming up against the forensic Sir Keir Starmer.
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Robert Jenrick
Robert Jenrick has held three ministerial jobs when in government and now he is looking to lead the party in opposition.
He's made no secret of his aspirations to head the Tory party and holds plenty of sway among the remaining 121 MPs.
Mr Jenrick has already set out his narrative for leadership, turning on the former cabinet and insisting his party failed to deliver for the British people.
It’s the same playbook as those seeking the Labour leadership in the wake of the 2010 election defeat. It could work and the bookies have him at 4/1 to be the next Tory leader.
Tom Tugendhat
Betting sites had Mr Tugendhat out at 20/1 to be the next Tory leader until midway through the election campaign, when suddenly it emerged he had eyes on the top job.
His odds fell to 6/1 before the election and he is now 5/1 with SpreadEx to be the next leader of the Conservative party.
Mr Tugendhat is understood to have been sounding out support for the leadership for weeks and would be a safe, centrist option for the party’s MPs.
Whether he would get wider support from the Conservative membership, which is generally right of the party, is another question.
Priti Patel
Once the favourite to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister, Dame Priti Patel (9/1) is now in the running to lead the opposition.
The former home secretary has grassroots support and generally performs well in the media.
That will be crucial as the Tories seek to set the agenda for tackling both Labour and Reform.
She refused to countenance a vote deal with Nigel Farage at the election, which will help her claim to be leader among Conservative activists.
James Cleverly
James Cleverly has been mooted as a possible caretaker leader until the Conservatives find Rishi Sunak’s permanent replacement.
He could, in this role, offer Tories a glimpse of what he would do as an elected leader. He was home secretary heading into the election and would likely sit on any leader’s front bench.
Indeed, Mr Cleverly has emerged as one of the most experienced Conservatives now in opposition and that weight will carry him far.
The bookies reckon he’s a good outside shot at 9/1 and his odds will likely fall further.
Suella Braverman
Suella Braverman was once 3/1 to be the next Conservative leader after her public dismissal from Mr Sunak’s government.
She has become a populist agitator but hasn’t gone as far as to join Reform. That’s because she has always had eyes on the Tory leadership.
Many bookmakers have widened their odds on Ms Braverman, partially because she’s lost ground in the race compared to Ms Badenoch and Mr Jenrick.
She does not carry party-wide support but would offer the Tories a chance of forging closer ties with Reform. Her odds are tentatively set at 12/1 and they could easily rise or fall.
Victoria Atkins
The least well-known of the candidates, Victoria Atkins was the health secretary for all of seven months and is very much a moderate voice.
She has ex-deputy PM Oliver Dowden’s backing and could be a real vote winner in the centre ground.
Her presence in the race is akin to Theresa May in 2016 when there was jostling to succeed David Cameron.
The dominoes fell at the right time as Ms May swooped in to grab power. Ms Atkins (20/1) could do the same, especially if other moderates like Mr Tugendhat don’t get significant backing themselves.
Nigel Farage
Finally we come to the man who arguably condemned the Tories to their worst-ever general election defeat. Mr Farage’s presence in UK politics has caused years-long rifts in the Conservative party.
Brexit was the catalyst for what was eventually a breakaway of voters from the Tories to Reform UK this summer.
Yet we know Mr Farage wants to lead the Conservatives one day. He has four fellow Reform MPs with him in parliament but could broker a deal to merge the two parties, on provision that he takes over the Tories.
Would the party accept that? The lure of raking millions of right-wing voters back into the fold is a big one. At 40/1 SpreadEx reckon Mr Farage is an outside shot for now.
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