Next Tory Leader Odds: Who Will Be Next Conservative Leader?

Date IconLast Updated: 13 Oct 2023
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Next Tory Leader Odds: Who Will Be Next Conservative Leader?
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Betting sites have shuffled their odds on who will be the next Conservative leader after Rishi Sunak, with Suella Braverman and Boris Johnson the ones who look destined to lose out.

Sunak is entering what might be the final 12 months of his premiership as the UK election odds hint at a Labour majority at the next ballot.

Should the PM lose the next election then he would almost certainly resign as party leader and pave the way for a new figure to head the Tories in opposition.

For more than a year the favourite to replace Sunak has been Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary who has successfully struck a chord with MPs across all factions of the Conservative parliamentary party.

Braverman has pitched herself as the populist option when, inevitably, Tory members will elect who succeeds Sunak.

However, her odds are drifting at a rate only bettered by Johnson, who now seemingly has a 3.8% chance of returning to frontline politics as the leader of the Conservatives.

Next Conservative Party Leader Outright Odds
Best Odds
% Chance
Kemi Badenoch
30.77%
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Penny Mordaunt
16.67%
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Suella Braverman
14.29%
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James Cleverly
11.11%
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Robert Edward Jenrick
5.56%
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Nigel Farage
4.76%
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David Cameron
4.76%
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Boris Johnson
3.85%
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Teams Best Odds
Kemi Badenoch
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Penny Mordaunt
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Suella Braverman
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James Cleverly
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13/2Unibet
Robert Edward Jenrick
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Nigel Farage
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David Cameron
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Johnson was once the guy with a “fighting chance” to replace Sunak but the ongoing Covid-19 inquiry looks likely to keep him out of office. 

A controversial figure at the best of times, Johnson’s poll ratings always fall when the pandemic is in the headlines.

The scramble for the Tory leadership, therefore, appears to be a face-off between four candidates. 

This does not include Liz Truss who, since stepping down as PM in disgrace a year ago, has sought to rebrand herself as an economic guru.

Instead, Badenoch is tipped to compete with Braverman, Penny Mordaunt and James Cleverly for the party’s top job.

Who Will Replace Sunak?

Politics betting sites and pollsters believe there’s a good chance that Sunak calls an election for summer 2024. 

He theoretically could hold out until January 2025 but a summer election is more favourable to the Tories’ core voters.

Therefore, with the PM unable to cut Labour’s 20-point lead over his party, it appears inevitable that Sunak will be leaving Downing Street by the autumn.

The jostling to replace him has already begun. Braverman was first out with an impassioned speech on migration at the recent Conservative party conference – a speech that fanned the flames of passion among the Tory far right but which drew criticism from elsewhere in her party.

Mordaunt was next, arguing that the country needs to “stand up and fight” against threats in the world – namely immigration, apparent wokeism, and economic hardship. Mordaunt and Braverman attracted more attention for their speeches than Sunak’s flagship talk.

Both Cleverly and Badenoch kept a low profile at the party but that has not done them any harm.

The politics odds show that Badenoch is still the favourite to replace Sunak at 10/3. That price has actually shifted shorter in recent months, perhaps in response to Braverman’s odds widening to 9/1.

Mordaunt is second in the politics odds at 9/2, narrowing from 11/2. Cleverly, at 7/1, has seen a small change to his price to keep him in third place.

This quartet may well shuffle positions over the coming months as Sunak’s government faces more strains. 

The PM could decide to ditch home secretary Braverman in a reshuffle and keep her at arm’s length heading into an election. But he needs Badenoch and Mordaunt on side. Their profiles are expected to rise between now and polling day.

What About Boris Johnson’s Odds?

As for Johnson, it looks like his frontline political career is on hiatus for now. The former prime minister, who resigned in disgrace in 2022 after one too many scandals, was once the immediate favourite to succeed Sunak.

However, his star has faded. Johnson was 14/1 to be the next Tory leader back in the summer, and that price is now a lowly 25/1 at Betfred.

The reason for the slip is twofold. One, Johnson is out of the limelight and the media is looking elsewhere for headlines. And two, the Covid-19 inquiry is likely to damage Johnson’s reputation further.

At 59 Johnson has time to play the long game. For now he is writing books, newspaper columns and earning money on the lucrative after-dinner circuit.