Next Tory Leader Odds: Badenoch and Jenrick Fight For Conservative Leadership

UK betting sites believe Kemi Badenoch is on course to become the next Conservative Party leader following a remarkable turn of events in the last round of voting before Tory members get their say.

Badenoch looked on course to exit the contest after the third round of voting suggested James Cleverly would end up facing Robert Jenrick in a one-on-one battle for the leadership.

But in a stunning twist, Badenoch recouped a hoard of votes to top the poll and head into the final two as the favourite.

Jenrick follows, having successfully gained an extra 10 MPs in support within 24 hours.

The big shock is that Cleverly – the moderate option compared to right-wingers Jenrick and Badenoch – actually lost two votes between the third and fourth rounds.

Exactly why this is remains to be seen, but speculation will be rife over who opted to quit the Cleverly camp and shift to one of the others.

It means politics bookmakers now have a simple market for punters to assess. Tory members will vote for their choice of Badenoch or Jenrick to lead their party over this parliament – and right now the bookies reckon it’s Badenoch’s race to lose.

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Who Will Replace Sunak?

Around 172,000 Conservative members will now vote on who succeeds Rishi Sunak this November. 

Betting apps have been fairly consistent on Jenrick and Badenoch since Sunak announced he would quit as party leader following the disastrous general election defeat in July.

The pair have both been ahead in the betting odds over the past few weeks, and also endured the possibility of crashing out of the race altogether. Indeed, at one stage Jenrick was as wide as 10/1 to win this contest as bookmakers shifted away from him.

But all that has changed now. The fact this is a two-horse race means punters have a far easier decision to make, and the odds will be far less volatile.

Here, we look at the final two candidates and their chances of winning this leadership election, according to political betting sites.

Next Tory Party Leader Odds: Kemi Badenoch

The second-favourite at the start of the contest is now the firm frontrunner. Badenoch is 8/15 to be the next Conservative Party leader. Those odds carry a 65.2% probability.

Betfred were the first bookmaker to shift their odds once Cleverly was knocked out of the contest. 

They had already priced Badenoch at 3/4 (57.1%) before the fourth round of voting, so this shift isn’t too much of a surprise.

What is surprising, though, is the fact Tory MPs opted to present their members with two right-wing options. UK politics is usually won from the centre ground and neither Jenrick nor Badenoch appeal to moderates.

Badenoch will likely continue with the identity politics agenda that has overshadowed the Tory party in recent years, should she get elected.

She’d certainly be a gamble for the Tories, but she’s one that could really pay off if Labour get entangled in how to deal with her as an effective opponent. No wonder she is the favourite here.

Next Tory Party Leader Odds: Robert Jenrick 

Being priced at 13/8 in a two-horse race is pretty tough on Jenrick. His odds carry a 38.1% probability, which puts him as the firm underdog. Jenrick has slid through the rounds here without much media attention, bar scrutiny over one of his campaign donors.

He is less attention-grabbing than Badenoch and doesn’t play identity politics nearly as well.

In fact, he’s been accused of being rather generic. This could be a good thing for the Tories in the short term. 

A leader who can’t easily be caricatured like Boris Johnson or Liz Truss means the Conservatives can be a far more effective opposition.

They need to be trustworthy again if they are to win the next election. Jenrick could bring this sense of stability, and is perhaps a more palatable figure than Badenoch among moderate Tories.

But the bookies can’t see him winning. Remember, he was 10/1 to secure the leadership in the minutes before the fourth ballot results. 

Jenrick generally polls worse than Badenoch among Tory members – and they will decide who gets the job.